Why there will NOT be a solution! (IMHO)

pinkchilli


Joined: 30/11/2008
Posts: 689

Message Posted:
25/01/2009 14:24

Annan Plan rejected by the majority of GC's. Therefore, for them now to agree, they will have to receive more, (or their leaders TELL them to agree!).



There were a third of TC's who voted against. They will also have to receive more.



How can the majority of GC's and a third of TC's, together adding up to over 50% of the total, both get more?



This argument assumes that those that voted YES, would still vote YES, which is possibly, fairly unlikely.

rowlo



Joined: 12/10/2008
Posts: 4796

Message Posted:
25/01/2009 14:29

its the nature of the beast my friend everyone wants more

Stewart


Joined: 19/07/2008
Posts: 1107

Message Posted:
25/01/2009 14:37

dear Pinkchilli....agree with your statement, but....apparantly....the GCs borrowed £12m from EU coffers, ( for infrastructure work )

if the south votes no again...this has to be repaid ( it was not spent on infrastructure..so the rumour goes )...so pressure is on to vote yes this time round ( hence another rumour that GCs will get their land back.!? )



politics..eh!!

fire starter


Joined: 19/06/2008
Posts: 3401

Message Posted:
25/01/2009 18:47

i think now the tc vote would be more.

they are fed up of being left out in the cold and going without.

why should they? they have all been south and see what unification would have tp offer.

is the mother land not fed up with paying for the trnc.

i understood the purse was closing!

Aussie


Joined: 17/06/2007
Posts: 657

Message Posted:
25/01/2009 19:35

Some of the more thinking GC's acknowledge that in every negotiation since 1974 each successive proposal has been worse for them and they should have accepted the Annan plan.



Refer my previous post form former GC Foreign Minister Nicos Rolandis



http://www.cyprus44.com/forums/9437.asp



Its hard to see them getting significantly more than Annan.



Aussie

rowlo



Joined: 12/10/2008
Posts: 4796

Message Posted:
25/01/2009 19:44

just read it aussie hope your right

MUSIN M


Joined: 26/06/2008
Posts: 1352

Message Posted:
25/01/2009 20:26

i have just watched talat on the news stating how infuriated he is with the talks , although he did not state the reasons .











musin

bachelibelly


Joined: 04/09/2008
Posts: 275

Message Posted:
25/01/2009 20:52

Brain temporarily froze, does any settlement agreement agreed by the two leaders go to a joint referendum like Annan or is it their sole decision being final ?

pinkchilli


Joined: 30/11/2008
Posts: 689

Message Posted:
25/01/2009 22:44

Message 8... It will go to a similtaneous referendum.



I appreciate that the TC's do want to get a "piece of the action", but they will vote on "at what cost?".



IMHO I believe that fairly soon, the negotiating teams will do their utmost to convince everyone, it was the other side who made it impossible to reach a settlement.

The-Wicks


Joined: 27/05/2007
Posts: 2279

Message Posted:
25/01/2009 22:59

Oh! - I give up, I really do! Is this not all pointless speculation?



All anyone can do is wait and see. What will be, will be. (As Doris Day sang)!!

cooper


Joined: 23/10/2007
Posts: 3386

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 08:58

Quite right The-Wicks too !! & here's our Doris telling us just that - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZbKHDPPrrc&feature=related



Cooper

mmmmmm



Joined: 19/12/2008
Posts: 8398

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 09:54

"re msg3 Stewart:



dear Pinkchilli....agree with your statement, but....apparantly....the GCs borrowed £12m from EU coffers, ( for infrastructure work )



if the south votes no again...this has to be repaid ( it was not spent on infrastructure..so the rumour goes )...so pressure is on to vote yes this time round ( hence another rumour that GCs will get their land back.!? )



politics..eh!!"



OH BOY.. do you have a lot to learn about CY Politics..! the govt will simply say that Tassos' lot borrowed it and we can't be blamed for that ..



re msg 5 Aussie

"Its hard to see them getting significantly more than Annan. "



Conversely, it is possible to argue that they will get MORE as they have a leader who WANTS the plan to work.. unlike Tassos.. and then there's the Oram's case.. GCs know that LEGALLY Mr A should "win" .. but fear "games" and "political expediency" decisions being made by Judges..



..and then there's TR's EU accession ..and a recession..pot of gold on offer

pinkchilli


Joined: 30/11/2008
Posts: 689

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 10:44

Dear mmmmmm



Re message 12, You say..



"Conversely, it is possible to argue that they will get MORE as they have a leader who WANTS the plan to work.. "



It is possible that the more someone wants something, the more they will pay.



Conversely, the more someone PRETENDS that they don't want something, the less they will pay.



Simple negotiating tactics. I appreciate the two leaders cannot PRETEND not to want a solution, but this is very tricky.



Any gain to one side, must surely come at the expense of the other side!



A question: In your opinion, what percentage of GC's and TC's actually read and understood the Annan Plan before voting?



Regarding TR's EU accession, this must be still a long way off when it comes to a referendum. For example; referendum 2009, TR accession, 2019. Many things will change in these 10 years. The credit crunch that has affected the EU came about in a matter of months.



Regards

PC

mmmmmm



Joined: 19/12/2008
Posts: 8398

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 11:47

Dear PC re msg 14



This Recession will be a test of the EU and the Euro mechanism.. in fact we are starting to hear more calls for the UK to JOIN the Euro !!..



It will focus minds on ways to re generate confidence and it might not be a good thing not to be a member of a club..



If TR , CY and the EU could bring off a deal - then TR accession would happen a lot more quickly.



The important thing here is you say "there won't be a solution" .. there WILL as even TR can't afford to pay ECHR fines...

Steve1953



Joined: 04/12/2008
Posts: 298

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 12:01

It seems to me that there should have been strings attached for reunification of the island when the south joined the eu. Personally and realistically this is distant - but the same format as the Irish problem/Good Friday agreement could have been explored,still think Turkey will have to join the eu before any progress is made,regards,Steve

Blackpoolfan


Joined: 03/12/2008
Posts: 1568

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 14:12

Steve 1953,

Suprised to see you posting at this time you are usually pushing out the Club ZZZZZ's. I to think things would move quicker if Turkey were in the E.U.....

Stewart


Joined: 19/07/2008
Posts: 1107

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 14:29

dear MMMMMMMMM



Seems I have alot to learn about cy politics.....whilst you have alot to learn about EU politics...remember: the republic of CY is now governed ultimately by the EU not Greece, or indeed GC politicans...these are both just middlemen who are now answerable to a higher authority....like it or not!

pinkchilli


Joined: 30/11/2008
Posts: 689

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 16:37

Things would have to get very very bad, on both sides simultaneously, for them both to agree to unification.



I will repeat, for the GC's to vote YES, this time, they will want much more than was offered last time. For them to get more, the TC's, will have to give more. This, I believe, will not happen. Things are not that bad!



The TC's could generate huge sums, IF they either went totally immoral, i.e. a casino on every street corner, let their own citizens gamble, a "night-club" next door to every coffee shop, and the biggest winner of all, your very own SWISS-STYLE, no name, bank account!



They are isolated, so who can tell them, they can't do it?



They could, alternatively, sort out their act. Stop charging a three-tier system, encourage businesses to LOWER their prices to get more business, tidy up the place, stop nepotism, force the Civil Servants to work, (as opposed to just turn-up), and in this section, the biggest winner of all, abolish Permission to Purchase.

LeylaS


Joined: 21/01/2009
Posts: 39

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 16:52

Pinkchilli, this is the most sensible post I have read in a long time and I agree with everything you have said, especially your last paragraph. Things have been difficult in the North for a very long time. I personally do not feel that the TC's will vote "Yes" a second time around imho.

mmmmmm



Joined: 19/12/2008
Posts: 8398

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 17:35

Dear Stewart re 17



"Seems I have alot to learn about cy politics.....whilst you have alot to learn about EU "



Actually, Stewart, as the RoC Ministry of Interior, the RoC Ombudsman and the EU's SOLvit know - *I* know a LOT more about the workings of the EU / Council of Europe and implementation of Directives than they do ;)



Your post re the loan and the influence it has on the present RoC Govt was - NONSENSE.. and will have no bearing on the outcome of any talks..

mmmmmm



Joined: 19/12/2008
Posts: 8398

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 17:43

Dear Pinkchilli re 18 you SAID it..





They are isolated STILL - even after voting YES in 2004. So TCs - real TCS have a lot to GAIN..



It IS possible to have a plan where both sides perceive they gain "more" ..



Cypriots - I note I said CYPRIOTS ... can / could work this out.. but will they ever be allowed to?

pinkchilli


Joined: 30/11/2008
Posts: 689

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 20:43

Suppose the TC "Government" (in brackets with respect to MM) whilst negotiating, decided to sell / lease the remainder of the land in the North, that was under their control. For example, forests, hills, THE KARPAS!!! etc.



This could generate huge sums, as everyone would realise that there could now, never be a solution. Cheap land - loadsamoney!



This may just work in everyone's favour, especially the GC's, as they may just set their sights a little lower and get a settlement for everyone (CYPRIOTS).



Again... just a simple negotiating response, not a genuine argument.

wynyardman



Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 4580

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 20:50

Will any solution, if there is to be one, not be governed by political expediency?



For 35 years now people have desperately tried to rebuild their lives They have developed communities, schools for their children, and a social network. Will they want to give up that and start again. NO WAY1



It follows therefore that returning to their pre 74 homes is a non starter. Land swap(exchange) therefore , or compensation must be the order of the day. If you have agreed to take exchange land, you have been fully compensated. If not, former TC land in the south can be exchanged, and sold if nescessary and the owners compensated.



That must satisfactorily settle a very high (80 or 90%) of all claims. Compensation from a pool could if nescessary compensate anyone who is not satisfied, with the settlement offerred on a case by case scenario.



The EC who are sponsoring the talks can then interject with "sweeteners to underwrite

any agreements made." Now what is wrong with that.

wynyardman



Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 4580

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 20:58

I know, I know ...Why do we not wait and see? That is not forums are all about!



Exchange ideas, hypothesising, and sharing views.



It is my view whatever if any settlement is arrived at, will be on the basis of political expediency. Who is going to accept a solution, that involves mass migration, civil unrest.

blocking up the legal system for years to come. A lease system which will mean that there are no beneficiaries for two generatios hence. What kind of justice is that.



Finally I have read several times ALL of the contributions that have been made to this thread. THIS IS WHAT CYPRUSS 44 is good at. (One moderators interjection)



Thank you everyone. It was good to hear your views.



Now we will just have to wait and see the actuality! Good luck to you all!



wyn

Quarmby


Joined: 15/09/2008
Posts: 975

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 21:00

'Now whats wrong with that' err suggested by a foreigner?

wynyardman



Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 4580

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 21:12

Quarmby,



Whats your view then for a WORKABLE solution?



wyn

Aussie


Joined: 17/06/2007
Posts: 657

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 21:56

I think they shouldn't take it to a referendum



There are times when leaders should lead public opinion and reach a final agreement between them ratified by their respective elected parliaments and not simply fall in behind the lowest common denominator.



Given the long period of bitterness and propaganda and likely fear campaign for a no vote certainly in the ROC but also in the TRNC this may be what's needed.



After all there was no referendum for the entry of the ROC into the EU or / suspension of the 1960 constitution. Most peace treaties following wars and international settlements do no involve referendums so why the need here.



I don't believe either side will have the guts to do this but it is certainly one of the reason the problem has remained unsolved for so long.





Aussie

Quarmby


Joined: 15/09/2008
Posts: 975

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 22:02

Wyn, now that's a difficult one!



I do not have the in depth knowledge of the intracies of the Cyprus problem to give a workable solution. I am a foreigner, it is in the hands of the Cypriots to solve the problems.

juliet


Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 612

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 22:03

quite right msg 28!!!

rowlo



Joined: 12/10/2008
Posts: 4796

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 22:25

msg 28 yes but which cypriots tcs or gcs ????

wynyardman



Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 4580

Message Posted:
26/01/2009 22:37

Quarmby msg28,



or not!



wyn

pinkchilli


Joined: 30/11/2008
Posts: 689

Message Posted:
27/01/2009 08:38

I suggest the Cypriots have a referendum on whether to have a referendum!

pinkchilli


Joined: 30/11/2008
Posts: 689

Message Posted:
28/01/2009 15:40

Re; Message 23...



http://www.cyprus-mail.com/news/



So, they did TRY and sell GC land!



By the way, as the link refers to todays front page, it will probably change tomorrow. Sorry.

mmmmmm



Joined: 19/12/2008
Posts: 8398

Message Posted:
28/01/2009 16:34

Dear P-C



This link *should* stay working ..



http://www.cyprus-mail.com/news/main.php?id=43740&cat_id=1

pinkchilli


Joined: 30/11/2008
Posts: 689

Message Posted:
28/01/2009 17:03

Thanks Mark.



Message 33 should refer to message 22, not 23!



Get me an "Edit" button....