Euro doom and gloom

niftyduo


Joined: 27/04/2008
Posts: 230

Message Posted:
16/02/2009 13:09

If you think the worst of the economic news is behind us read this from the Sunday Telegraph



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4623525/Failure-to-save-East-Europe-will-lead-to-worldwide-meltdown.html

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
16/02/2009 13:39

looks worrying niftyduo

niftyduo


Joined: 27/04/2008
Posts: 230

Message Posted:
16/02/2009 14:59

can we expect the euro to crash?

Steve1953



Joined: 04/12/2008
Posts: 298

Message Posted:
16/02/2009 15:29

Interesting article.



Not sure how this will pan out - Italy has been technically bankrupt for years,because of their balance of payments problems. Even before this crisis the govt debt was enormous.

Interesting programme on R4 last week - Gary Casparov,the chess player,had stood against Putin because of the fall in value of the rouble,and the poor getting poorer;despite the oil price rise(and later fall). He predicted Russia would bankrupt itself soon.



I seem to remember a similar story in the 70's when inflation in the UK was over 20%,and we were in the middle of the 3 day week.



From a purely economic point of view,Turkey may be sheltered a bit because their debts weren't as big,before the current problems started.



Problem is,no one has any idea this will roll on for... and how many skeletons there are yet to come out of the cupboard,cheers ,Steve

ian444


Joined: 14/01/2009
Posts: 71

Message Posted:
16/02/2009 23:42

message 3 can we expect the Euro to crash

This is the million dollar question it will either remain strong or utterly shatter



Will germany and france be able to hold the line as the Irish Italian spanish portuguese and greek economy plummet



who knows but imagine the effect on the europe and the world if the Euro fails

rowlo



Joined: 12/10/2008
Posts: 4796

Message Posted:
16/02/2009 23:53

said this weeks ago on this forum and got slaughtered? the euro is finished they all want theyre own currencies back? only problem they have is how they pay the loans back?

MUSIN M


Joined: 26/06/2008
Posts: 1352

Message Posted:
17/02/2009 00:24

rowlo



not to far from the truth ,spain,portugal,ireland and greece are among some who wish just that.





musin

long live the kktc

fire starter


Joined: 19/06/2008
Posts: 3401

Message Posted:
17/02/2009 05:53

none of them minded the euro when things were going well, now there not its a different story.

lots of people for some time have been saying the euro is going to take a large fall at some point.

Hippo


Joined: 02/02/2007
Posts: 2070

Message Posted:
17/02/2009 05:54

We will definatley see a worsening of the Euro on the world money markets it is just to strong.

We will also see a worsening of the TL maybe by up to 30%.

Not Hippo's prediction but one by a very respected TRNC banker

CJtill


Joined: 02/05/2008
Posts: 836

Message Posted:
17/02/2009 09:31

So with stirling in the doldrums, the euro doomed, and the lira likely to fall this would seem the right time to invest in the dollar. Might be worth checking out the interest rates available and open up a USD account in the UK.

kibsolar


Joined: 14/09/2008
Posts: 552

Message Posted:
17/02/2009 16:37

i understood that an exchange rate reflects the value of one economy against another.

The euro is a balancing system. That was one of the intentions by introducing the euro.

(another one was…peace…) No eurozone-country thinks seriously of leaving the euro.

Due to the weakness of the Dollar, GBP, Yen… a weaker euro will remain strong.

If Eurozone wants it to weaken, then it will go down.

But if they do so and pay a couple of billions more for their oil and gas imports, nobody will love them for that.

Look at Britain and Iceland.

They did not want the euro, destroyed their mittelstand , put low taxes on financial institutions, making a lot of (virtuell) money.

Now all the funds and hedges are worthless and if the euro goes down, another chance of building the mittelstand up again is lost.

Who wishes the euro go down? The UK ministry of finance?

No! Their opinion is: “Please stay at home and spent your holiday billions in the UK. We need every single pence……”

kibsolar


Joined: 14/09/2008
Posts: 552

Message Posted:
17/02/2009 16:42

msg 10

for the US dolar investment it is too late.

summer 2008 would have been the right time.

a guy i know invested 100 000 stg in dollars juli 2008. for that he got in USdolar 200 k.

he changed to STG 4 weeks ago....and got 135 000 stg.



35% in half a year.

niftyduo


Joined: 27/04/2008
Posts: 230

Message Posted:
17/02/2009 17:47

Kibsolar: follow the link in the original post and read the article. If the Eastern block countries default then Austria will be in the same state as Iceland with Holanfd & Belgium in deep trouble. Spain is heavily committed in Brazil which is also in trouble and Portugal is effectively broke and has been for a number of years, not to mention Italy. The World Bank is running short of funds and will probably have to print money. Under these circumstances I think the Euro will be the loser.

FredWest


Joined: 07/12/2008
Posts: 20

Message Posted:
17/02/2009 20:13

The euro forex trading forecast continues to look bleak -- at least against the U.S. dollar. Indeed, George Soros is warning that the euro could face its demise in this financial crisis, reports Bloomberg:





There’s a need for a global “agreement on how to share the burden of lost capital, and every country should be involved otherwise even more countries will suffer,” Soros was quoted as saying. “If the EU doesn’t do it, the euro may not survive the crisis,” he said, according to the newspaper.





Economic data coming out of the euro zone is weak, and Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, has had to issue warnings to banks against hoarding capital. It is clear that stronger action may need to be taken by the EU if the euro is to survive.

kibsolar


Joined: 14/09/2008
Posts: 552

Message Posted:
17/02/2009 23:17

msg 13,

what do you want to tell me?

that the GBP will be the big winner? the dollar? the yen, the rubel, the chinese püan or how it is named?

the euro will be bad, will not survive, because these country troubles are smaller?

(the world bank can print money? but i also believe that the dangers of a hyperinflation are very big...and a war)

because, msg 14, the datas coming out from other countries are better?

i mean certainly not from east europe and not from brasil. maybe from the us with its 11,5 trillion debts?

of course the eurozone is in troubel. everybody is in trouble. if the euro fails then all is down. 30% of global currency reserves are in euro.

and if the euro doesnt survive...one for sure:

i dont want to be the accountant to sort that out

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
18/02/2009 00:11

the worst danger is deflation like in the 1930's everybody holds off buying because they are skint and expect prices to fall so hold off buying anyway



when euro was set up there were hopes it would be

a deutschmark with a suntan rather than an italian lira with a spiked helmet



but its banks exposure to east europe is a disaster

the new-europe dudes all borrowed in euros,

their own mickeymouse money collapsed so they can't pay



guess the market swung too far against the pound, will come back a bit, but

thank goodness turkey is not in the euro-zone (for us)



remember you can only express the value of a currency in terms of another so they cannot all fall and fail

unless you prefer to barter in cowrie shells or carob beans or...

gold



andre

kibsolar


Joined: 14/09/2008
Posts: 552

Message Posted:
18/02/2009 09:52

turkey and the trnc are not euro zone?

i live in the trnc, i know turkey i can say that all significant goods and even services are in euro and dollar.

when the prices go up in lemar, then because the TL dropped against the euro not against the STG.

or do you believe that your local a/c dealer will transfer GBP into the account of his chinese partner?

in my opinion only houses, plots, tobacco and cars in the trnc are based in gbp.

anything else?

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
18/02/2009 12:18

good point kibs,



any country that imports lots from eurozone or usa is thus up the swannee...



the problem for many countries like estonia and hungary is that they pegged their currency to the euro and propped it up with rapid economic expansion



somehow they thought this made their currency harder than it really was

and gaily borrowed huge sums in euros at low interest rates



as soon as the sewage collided with the aircon, they were shocked to learn that their local money had actually been produced on a john bull printing set



andre

tattlad


Joined: 13/12/2008
Posts: 479

Message Posted:
18/02/2009 15:45

Well it looks like all those that have made billions from around the world will have to be prepared to give it back or loose it.

niftyduo


Joined: 27/04/2008
Posts: 230

Message Posted:
18/02/2009 16:02

There is only one safe haven for money at the moment... gold, so the price is rising steadily. No country wants a strong currency just at present The Uk looks like giving the Bank of England the go ahead to print more more which, in normal circumstances means devaluation and inflation but in the current circumstances they are obviously hoping to avoid both. If the currency weakens further it will help us out of recession.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
18/02/2009 21:15

we..ll gold does look safe and is certainly worth three times more

than gordon brown sold ours for a few years ago



of course it can fall just as easily, and in the meantime doesn't earn interest

cannot be invested and may be stolen

private buyers must also pay 15% vat on bullion purchases



didn't winston churchill put britain back on the gold standard in 1925

and there was a huge deflationary slump?



a weak currency can indeed help exports

provided someone wants the garden gnomes you are hoping to export



the very rich (I am reliably informed) diversify their investments and risk:

shares, currencies, cash, property, bonds, paintings, wine, gold etc etc



andre

Woodspeckie


Joined: 25/01/2009
Posts: 2263

Message Posted:
18/02/2009 21:37

In September I took bits and pieces of gold earings bracelets etc 9ct & 14ct to Turkey weighed it in and got £350 I never thought it would be worth that much but enjoyed spending it.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
18/02/2009 21:46

wow! excellent price for the wife's knick knacks



wonder how much I'd get for all the whole lot if I put her on the scales as well



andre

Steve1953



Joined: 04/12/2008
Posts: 298

Message Posted:
19/02/2009 01:11

Nobody seen any gold bars lying around then? This time last year news showed cameras on back of car on m.way from Nicosia to Kyrenia folowing £15bn robbery in London.



Come on - whose got 'em?

regards,Steve