Can you see into the future

Mrwilson



Joined: 31/10/2008
Posts: 470

Message Posted:
10/04/2009 09:57

If you can please tell me what the exchange rate is going ot do.

fire starter


Joined: 19/06/2008
Posts: 3401

Message Posted:
10/04/2009 10:00

just a guess but as easter is here it will still be going down.

i think it should go back up a bit when the tourists go home.

this morning turkish tv was showing 2.29 to the pound. it was 2.35 earlier this week.

waddo


Joined: 29/11/2008
Posts: 1966

Message Posted:
10/04/2009 10:05

May seem a bit silly but do you really think that a few thousand tourists will have that sort of effect upon the whole of the Turkish Lira situation? Given that it is the rate for all of Turkey and not just the TRNC.



I know that it always seems to be this way but can not figure out why a Christian Holiday (Easter) and a rise in tourists would effect it to that extent.

fire starter


Joined: 19/06/2008
Posts: 3401

Message Posted:
10/04/2009 10:20

waddo

i totally agree but it seems to happen every easter, more tourists, less exchange rate.

remember turkey had a massive tourist industry as well.

the pound has been up against the euro all week, the uk markets are doing ok, so why has the rate gone down?

Brinsley


Joined: 04/04/2009
Posts: 6858

Message Posted:
10/04/2009 10:27

Obama probably in 'behind the scenes' negotiations indicating Turkey can hang on to It's $8 Billion loan from the IMF which it has defaulted on. All a bunch of crooks. Whilst the Lira rises in a bankrupt country supporting the affluent lifestyles of a few, central and eastern regions of Turkey survive in abject poverty. Why do you think Ministers and top Civil Servants can afford to be chauffeured around in the latest all singing, all dancing imported models from Germany?



Richard

fire starter


Joined: 19/06/2008
Posts: 3401

Message Posted:
10/04/2009 11:08

hi brin

is this the first loan they had? as i thought they declined another one recently?

Brinsley


Joined: 04/04/2009
Posts: 6858

Message Posted:
10/04/2009 12:34

fire starter



The $8 Billion was the outstanding balance from the last tranche. Turkey wanted another $16 to $20 billion which the IMF agreed too, subject to a few conditions primarily the loan to go to the Treasury for infrastructure use. The Government said no, wanting it to go to the central Bank so it could be used to prop up the ailing Lira. IMF said no and goodbye but whilst we're here how about the outstanding $8 billion you owe us. Got no where on that one! Also the IMF wanted the Government to privatise all their hotels (I was interested in the Adana one) but that too fell on deaf ears. C'est la vie!



Richard

Jimmyboy63


Joined: 16/03/2009
Posts: 400

Message Posted:
10/04/2009 12:47

Historically the TL is a very volatile currency,for the last 3 yrs it has been ok and varied between 2.2-2.8 to £1 but before that it was devalued and Turkey had double digit inflation,so be aware if you change your sterling into TL.

The bank's don't give you 15-20% on your money for no reason

fire starter


Joined: 19/06/2008
Posts: 3401

Message Posted:
10/04/2009 12:50

i did read that a lots of the big people in industry asked the turkish gov to reconsider but i didn't hear anymore than that.

looks like turkey could be in trouble financially, my feeling have always been that it will happen there sooner or later.(and here)

Brinsley


Joined: 04/04/2009
Posts: 6858

Message Posted:
10/04/2009 12:57

'TROUBLE' is in a worse state than the UK, USA, Ireland etc etc



Richard

fire starter


Joined: 19/06/2008
Posts: 3401

Message Posted:
10/04/2009 13:18

recently things in the uk appear to be on the up.

the property market, sterling to the euro ect, the unemployment figures were not good but that should change as every thing else improves.

the losses in the american property market is shocking.

i don't think any country will be spared but i think turkey has got off light so far.

waddo


Joined: 29/11/2008
Posts: 1966

Message Posted:
10/04/2009 13:24

Is this all an indication that the bottom may well fall out of the Lira soon then and mean an exchange rate of +3TL to the pound could be on the way?



Not that I have any pounds left anyway, spent my pay rise this morning - LOL

Brinsley


Joined: 04/04/2009
Posts: 6858

Message Posted:
10/04/2009 13:49

£1=3.2ytl should have been the exchange rate about a year ago given all economic data available then. No accounting for speculators and the central bank spending $60million a day just to prop It's currency. It did hit 3 for one day only and thought reality was at last kicking in but I was proved wrong yet again!! Given the high interest paid on TL a/c's and the relative stability on the exchange rate something soon will have to give. It makes no economic sense to me.



Richard

Mrwilson



Joined: 31/10/2008
Posts: 470

Message Posted:
10/04/2009 16:34

When you read all comments above and then look at the Dollar to the pound Currently 1.46 the Lira could go anywhere.



Shorly based on the American situation the Dollar should be at 2 dollars to the Pound.

Brinsley


Joined: 04/04/2009
Posts: 6858

Message Posted:
10/04/2009 16:39

The Lira was loosely tied to the dollar but came unstuck when selling off dollar reserves to prop up the Lira. Hence its inability to pay off IMF loan. Look at the charts when £1=$2, made little impact to TL-£ exchange.



Richard