cyprus in the balance

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
17/04/2009 17:50

Turkish-Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat is worried about an expected opposition victory in Sunday's parliamentary elections, just as his government is on the threshold of an agreement to reunite Cyprus after 35 years of bitter ethnic division.



"I'm worried to an extent," Mr. Talat told editors and reporters from The Washington Times on Thursday, referring to the opposition Party of National Unity, which has promised to support negotiations.



Public opinion polls give the nationalists a double-digit lead over Mr. Talat's Republican Turkish Party, but the opposition has ignored the issue of the reunification of Cyprus in the campaign, Mr. Talat said. The latest poll has the nationalists at 44.5 percent and the republicans at 25.1 percent.

Continued:

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
17/04/2009 17:52

"They say they will support the president, provided that the president will cooperate with them," said Mr. Talat, referring to himself, the elected president of the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).



"By their words, they say this," Mr. Talat said. "But their deeds could be a problem."



In the campaign, nationalists have mainly run against republicans by accusing them of failing to fulfill promises to improve living standards.



On the reunification questions, nationalists favor a strongly autonomous Turkish-Cypriot administration and a weak confederation with a Greek-Cypriot one. Currently, the TRNC has diplomatic recognition only from Turkey, while the Greek-Cypriot government of President Dimitris Christofias is internationally recognized as the government of the entire island.



Continued:

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
17/04/2009 17:54

Mr. Talat and Mr. Christofias are negotiating for a solution that calls for a strong central government, representing both ethnic communities with a rotating presidency that would be filled by a Greek-Cypriot and then a Turkish-Cypriot.







Mr. Christofias also is concerned about a nationalist victory, especially if a nationalist wins next year's presidential election. The nationalists hold 16 seats in the 50-member legislature, while the republicans hold 25.

"If we can't work things out with this man, who is a progressive," Mr. Christofias told reporters in Cyprus on Monday, referring to Mr. Talat, "then I don't know if we could ever work things out."



Mr. Talat hopes to have a negotiated settlement by November so that he can present it to voters in a referendum by January. However, parliament must authorize the referendum, so opposition control of the legislature might become a key political obstacle.

Continued:

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
17/04/2009 17:57

Regardless of his concern over the election, Mr. Talat said he is "optimistic" about the goal of reaching a settlement with Mr. Christofias. The two sides have agreed on the principle of a rotating presidency, although they still disagree on how long each ethnic leader would serve because ethnic Greeks make up 80 percent of the population and ethnic Turks 20 percent.



They also have reached a breakthrough on the question of Turkish immigrants who settled in northern Cyprus and, in many cases, married Turkish-Cypriots and now have children. Mr. Talat said Mr. Christofias has agreed to accept 50,000 as citizens of a reunited Cyprus.

Continued:

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
17/04/2009 17:59

They have yet to agree on other issues, such as property compensation for Greeks who fled from their homes in Turkish areas and Turks who fled from Greek areas during ethnic violence in the 1960s and 1970s. The island has been divided since 1974, when Turkish troops landed in the north after a military government in Greece instigated a coup to annex Cyprus.



"We have to finish this," Mr. Talat said of the negotiations. "There is a great opportunity."



Mr. Talat met Wednesday with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who expressed support for the negotiations. Earlier this month, she met with Cypriot Foreign Minister Markos Kyprianou, who is due to meet with her again in Washington on Monday.

Courtesy of The Washington Times

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
17/04/2009 18:04

AJ, it certainly is in the balance. We must all hope that the negotiations continue in a positve manner and are not disrupted by the election results.

rocking


Joined: 05/11/2008
Posts: 421

Message Posted:
17/04/2009 18:09

Last Wednesday Christofias was on the TV saying that the talks were 'going nowhere'.

DutchCrusader



Joined: 19/05/2008
Posts: 11280

Message Posted:
17/04/2009 18:10

When the UBP wins as expected, Mr. President Talat (CTP) is a lame duck and lost his mandate (although not official) to negotiate further. Early presidency elections would be the best solution.

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
18/04/2009 19:53

http://lt.webwombat.com/lt.php?2599



"victory for the ubp would take the north back 10 years".Worrying times ahead.

mmmmmm



Joined: 19/12/2008
Posts: 8398

Message Posted:
18/04/2009 20:07

Dear Paul, re msg 9



Your link takes me to a general newspapers page:(



What newspaper is your quote from, please ?



"victory for the ubp would take the north back 10 years"..



hopefully not.. what matters more is what Turkey wants... UBP / DP ultimately did what they were told..

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
18/04/2009 22:09

So reading between the lines:

The so called referendum in the TRNC is not guaranteed

Is it in the ROC?



Rotating presidency: it appears to me that the ROC are wanting the 'Lions share' of the presidency. Comments welcome to hopefully put my mind at rest over this one.



Acceptance of 50 000 mainland Turks being allowed to stay on the Island. I am not sure but the last figure I saw was 100 000 mainland Turks now resident in the TRNC so that means that 50 000 people being turfed out of their homes and being repatriated to Turkey. Ethnic cleansing again?

AJ

elko2



Joined: 24/07/2007
Posts: 4400

Message Posted:
18/04/2009 22:44

"The latest poll has the nationalists at 44.5 percent and the republicans at 25.1 percent."



This poll is 2-3 weeks old. A great deal has changed since then. I think UBP has lost a great deal of support from the undecided because of their involvement in the so called "Ergenekon" secret antidemocratic operations in the past. On the other hand CTP made great advances. So my expectance is that UBP will get about 37% and CTP 35%. As the end result I expect a coalition with CTP and DP or CTP and ORP.



If UBP gets over 50% of the seats and is able to form a government by itself, it will not last long. Some MPs will be "persuaded" to change sides. By and large, Turkey calls the tune and it will not be any different this time.



Nasretting Hodja has an anecdote, "The person who pays the money blows the whistle". Without substantial aid from Turkey TRNC cannot stand on its feet, hence Turkey calls the tune everytime. This is the big dilemma for the Greek Cypriots. The more they try to h

elko2



Joined: 24/07/2007
Posts: 4400

Message Posted:
18/04/2009 22:45

ctd.

the more they try to harm TRNC economically, the more they rely on support from Turkey and hence subject to their policies.

ismet

TheSaints



Joined: 28/01/2009
Posts: 1369

Message Posted:
19/04/2009 01:06

So is there any real point to having TRNC elections and a government if it is really governed by Turkey?? why does turkey just not have a Governor in TRNC?

The-Wicks


Joined: 27/05/2007
Posts: 2279

Message Posted:
19/04/2009 01:42

See what happens tomorrow. After that things may or may not be decided. I just hope everyone has been to the supermarket & got their drink in. It could be a long day.

P

keithr


Joined: 20/08/2008
Posts: 720

Message Posted:
19/04/2009 07:17

I agree with The Saints.



Why have a duplicate government with the huge costs etc.... ??



Just get Turkey to send a minister over to run it....

DutchCrusader



Joined: 19/05/2008
Posts: 11280

Message Posted:
19/04/2009 10:38

Anyone ever wondered why the north is called "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus"..? Why not "Turkish Cypriot Republic"..? The name TRNC (KKTC) says a lot and maybe all, doesn't it..?

Geoff


Joined: 25/06/2008
Posts: 1370

Message Posted:
19/04/2009 10:44

Nowt new then!

Lilli



Joined: 21/07/2008
Posts: 13081

Message Posted:
19/04/2009 10:48

Hi Jean its going to be a long day. Cant even get the alchol in as its not to be sold today in bars restaurants shope etc. Lets all hope thar its a good outcome. The traffic this week wit horns blarring and blocking up the roads has been a nightmare

elko2



Joined: 24/07/2007
Posts: 4400

Message Posted:
19/04/2009 11:30

No country is totally independent today. For example EU decide on a lot of things that UK cannot object. Just watch the upcoming Orams decision, unfair? may be but the UK courts will have to enforce it unless they find a way out.



Turkey has to go along with the policies of IMF as long as they go and ask for more money. These are the simple facts of life and TRNC is no different.

ismet

deecyprus4


Joined: 27/07/2008
Posts: 3452

Message Posted:
19/04/2009 11:33

Elko when is the outcome announced..?

DutchCrusader



Joined: 19/05/2008
Posts: 11280

Message Posted:
19/04/2009 11:36

RE msg 21, DC4 > when is the outcome announced..? <



=> I read that the final outcome will announced on Tuesday. Don't forget they have to count no less than 160.000 votes...

elko2



Joined: 24/07/2007
Posts: 4400

Message Posted:
19/04/2009 11:48

Msg. 21.

The final outcome should be announced on Tuesday but healthy predictions will be possible by 10 pm.



The ECJ verdict on Orams is expected on 28th April.

ismet

deecyprus4


Joined: 27/07/2008
Posts: 3452

Message Posted:
19/04/2009 11:51

Thanks Elko and DC.