Turkey's entry into Europe - In doubt, say some !

OllieD


Joined: 23/10/2007
Posts: 14

Message Posted:
12/02/2008 00:54

After speaking with our Turkish Lawyer today, he emphatically said that he does not envisage Turkey joining the EU for at least one, if not another two decades.



Obvioulsy for those of us investing in resiential property in TRNC and hoping on some capital appreciation on the back of Turkey joining the EU, his comments are somewhat alarming.



Does anyone else have any thoughts on this?

wynyardman



Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 4580

Message Posted:
12/02/2008 01:42

Presumably, if the Cyprus Problem is resolved during 2008, by way of unification, then the Island of Cyprus would be in the Eu!



No doubt if my understanding is wrong,I shall soon be told!



Please dont tell me that there will be no unification. Enough people are pushing for it. We shall just have to wait and see!

millzer


Joined: 12/04/2007
Posts: 978

Message Posted:
12/02/2008 10:04

Correct wynyardman,



The WHOLE of Cyprus is already 'technically' in the EU. It's just that the 'acquis' (EU powers) is suspended in the North pending a settlement. Like you, I hope that there will be re-unification in the next couple of years that would open up the whole island and allow Cypriots to put the Cyprus problem where it belongs.... in history.



I guess the chances od a solution depends a lot on who wins the ROC presidential election next week.

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
12/02/2008 10:06

Ollie,

Does your lawyer have a crystal ball,what is he basis this staement on,



Regards,

Paul.

rtddci


Joined: 29/12/2007
Posts: 842

Message Posted:
12/02/2008 18:51

The International Crisis Group have published a report in Jan 08 which is worth reading re Cyprus : http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5255&l=1



Martin

ukturk



Joined: 01/09/2007
Posts: 1974

Message Posted:
12/02/2008 22:24

ollie

i agree with dodger on this!!!! where does your lawyer get his info from, he must have great insight in to e.u politics

i would not take turkeys inclusion in the e.u putting you off in to buying in north cyprus because the housing maket has prospered in turkey and north cyprus without them joining the e.u up to now, just take a look at house prices how they have increased over the last 5 years and just ask any of the locals who cant get on the property ladder in recent years because of the increase, even thou it has leveled out a bit last year, but this has got nothing to do with loss of interest in turkey or cyprus but more with increase in interest rates world wide and inflation because some people who do buy holiday homes release some of their equity in their homes in the u.k etc

im not going to go about north cyprus unifying with the south because anyone who knows me on this forum know how i feel about this situation

NO TRUST!!!!!

so my final words is dont take your mystic meg lawyers fortune telling info on board too much!!!!

regards

ukturk

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
13/02/2008 22:26

Mystic meg i like that mate,or even gypsee rose lee.

p4aul


Joined: 12/10/2007
Posts: 71

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 09:36

Millzer wrote:

Correct wynyardman,



The WHOLE of Cyprus is already 'technically' in the EU. It's just that the 'acquis' (EU powers) is suspended in the North pending a settlement. Like you, I hope that there will be re-unification in the next couple of years that would open up the whole island and allow Cypriots to put the Cyprus problem where it belongs.... in history.



I guess the chances od a solution depends a lot on who wins the ROC presidential election next week.



________________________________________________________________



I think you will find that the WHOLE of Cyprus is not actually in the EU, the UK bases are excluded form the EU.

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 10:23

The one that not a lot of people on this forum seem to want to comment on.Its a shame that the cider post gets more hits then the greek cyp election,

Regards,

Paul.

Milou


Joined: 15/10/2007
Posts: 425

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 11:42

Hi dodger



I am beginning to wonder whether it will make any difference who wins in the ROC as I don't believe that the TRNC would join the EU without Turkey joining as well - the TRNC owes it's loyalty to Turkey for obvious reasons. Personally, I would just be happy if the embargoes disappeared this year - maybe the TRNC should sue the UN/EU for imposing illegal embargoes, certainly from the date that the TRNC agreed to the UN plan - agreed in desperation!



I am one of those who believe that countries do best by depending on themselves for wealth creation and not being bound by endless cash debts - the TRNC shouldn't rely on too much tourism or expat retiress but look at massive farming expansion for export, giving incentives in producing end goods for export, looking at ways to conserve water and yes, growing millions of trees which will go a long way to conserving water. The government should only allow one pool per development - easily done, simply ban single unit having pools.



I don't believe the answer is the EU - the answer lies in the TRNC having a serious 20 year plan - I am confident that as water, oil and bread becomes ever more expensive, governments will start realising that globalization and the EU is not the solution - self sufficiency is the answer.

Regards

Milou


Joined: 15/10/2007
Posts: 425

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 11:57

Hi gang



Anyone who wants to read one of the most relevant economic books:



E F Schumacher - "Small is Beautiful" - a study of economics as if people mattered. Although this book was written some 35 years ago, it's as if Schumacher wrote it for the economic problems the world is facing today. I really would encourage every student to read it and I would also make it compulsory reading for anyone in government!

Regards

millzer


Joined: 12/04/2007
Posts: 978

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 13:25

Ok Paul if you want to be particularly pedantic about it. I think most people knew what I was getting at though!

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 16:42

Now now chaps

pilgrim



Joined: 11/05/2007
Posts: 1404

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 19:12

Not really worried about capitol appreaciation, Think reunification will definitely benefit both sides, but prepared to wait, actually like it as it is.

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 20:09

Milou,

enjoyed your no 10 post,but what exactly are the north allowed to export.dont they have to contend with embargos etc,

Paul.

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 20:18

Here we go again,Cyprus are to take the eu to the highest court in the land regarding a payment of 259 million euros paid to the turkish cypriots.Why dont they just butt out.

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 20:36

News hound dodge here just letting you know that russias preident putin has stated that the t.r.n.c. has been a "de-facto republic for forty years".doesnt mince with his words that guy.

pilgrim



Joined: 11/05/2007
Posts: 1404

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 20:41

just people

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 20:44

Fair point, but then so do most presidents and or dictators

pilgrim



Joined: 11/05/2007
Posts: 1404

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 20:51

If he helps the Trnc get recognised hes my comrade!

simma



Joined: 03/02/2008
Posts: 346

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 21:20

Not really too fussed myself. don't think most Turks or tc's are either. Lifting embargo's and direct flight's would do me fine.

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 21:33

I just thought it was unusual for an outsider to have the balls to come out with something nearer the truth for once,

Regards,

Paul.

Milou


Joined: 15/10/2007
Posts: 425

Message Posted:
14/02/2008 21:43

Hi Dodger



Yes, you're right, all exports have to either go through ROC or Turkey - I was thinking of the future when finally all the embargoes are lifted!

Regards

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
15/02/2008 00:06

Me right i dont believe it must be all the reading i have been doing on the cyprus problem,

Regards,

Paul.

Milou


Joined: 15/10/2007
Posts: 425

Message Posted:
15/02/2008 11:51

dodger - no, it comes from being a health and safety officer!!!

regards

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
15/02/2008 15:10

No were always wrong milou.

pilgrim



Joined: 11/05/2007
Posts: 1404

Message Posted:
15/02/2008 20:21

Both of you Wow, their on the march, watch it folks.

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
15/02/2008 21:19

My old mate putin is at it again (bless) he is accusing europe of double standards,drawinng parallels between kosovo and northern cyprus.And also the russian first deputy has said that if the eu and nato countries recognise kosovos indepence,they will have to recognize that of the t.r.n.c.,

Regards,

news hound dodge.

pilgrim



Joined: 11/05/2007
Posts: 1404

Message Posted:
15/02/2008 21:40

Good info Dodger, have you got an annual subsciption to Pravda?

cheers

p

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
15/02/2008 22:28

thats my cover blown mate.lol

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
15/02/2008 22:37

Chris Davies m.e.p. has told local villagers that they should consider a campaign of direct action against the soverign base administration in cyprus.He called for an end to the arrangements that put 8,000 cypriots under british millitary jurisdiction.



Mr Davies claimed that if the same situation existed in britain and citizens living close to the american air bases came under control of the pentagon,there would be an outcry.



He was concerned to know why ploiticians in cyprus raised the issue so rarely that hardly anyone in britain has any idea at all about the situation.



lots going on folks,

News hound dodge.

pilgrim



Joined: 11/05/2007
Posts: 1404

Message Posted:
15/02/2008 22:44

News Hound,Reckon you have the Times & Guardian too. impressed.

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
15/02/2008 23:19

Pilgrim,

Actually i just make it up as i go along lol.

simbas



Joined: 16/07/2007
Posts: 5943

Message Posted:
15/02/2008 23:26

hi paul , yeh your right , people do sit on the fence when they feel uncomfortable with certain things , me being one of them , with nc not being my country of birth or residence , i did'nt feel i had the right to comment , but on a purely personal and selfish note , i do not relish reunification , and on talking to some old gentleman in gazimagosa some years ago , on the subject of reunification , which left me in tears , has had a lasting affect on me. i cant help my feelings rightly or wrongly

have a good w/e pat

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
16/02/2008 12:28

Hey Simbas. I wonder if we have spoken to the same guy, an old boy who hangs around the cafe's, in Famagusta. He told me about his plight and the death of his wife. Very moving. No love lost between him and the GC's.



Did anyone watch bbc2 on Tuesday evening? There was a programme about Europe in the 20's. Most of the programme featured the war between Greece and Turkey. The programme was interesting, but the event was absolutely horrific. Villages were completely destroyed and people murdered in their droves. Like the Cyprus affair there are still some displaced people, both Greeks and Turks.

I can't help but think. that Cyprus, was just a continuation of that war. Both sides had unfinished business.



You are right Erkan. Trust is the issue between GC's and TC's.



Paul - Seems like the TRNC is just being treated like a political pawn in the Kosovo affair. The ROC voted against Kosovos independence, purely in their own self interest,(although this has probably backfired on them) and now Russia is using the TRNC to argue the case for it's ally Serbia, and score political points. Who know's perhaps this is a good thing for the TRNC!



I have no idea about Turkeys future in the EU. Who needs who more? Europe probably needs it's young and increasingly well educated population to bolstor the EU economic machine, but parts of the Union are worried about the Secularist/Islamist internal battle, which seems to be taking place. The eu is also, likley, to be uncomforatble with article 301.

Turkey is doing alright economically on it's own. It is now the 17th largest economy in the world and is recognised as being the powerhouse in it's region. It also doesn't want the EU sticking it's nose in to the Kurdish issue.



Who knows, Turkey might be looking East for it's aliiances rather than West.



Interestingly, it seems that Erdogan is increasingly moving away from the idea of EU membership, whereas, Gul is still pro EU. Not sure how the power is distributed between these two guys, and what is driving their individual perspectives. Perhaps Erkan can enlighten me? If you have time mate?



Milou - agree with much of what you say. For me, small is beautiful. Big has many benefits, but these are often outweighed by beauracracy and waste. Self sufficiency is going to be a big issue for countries, however, we are going to have to find ways to stay connected and coperative with each other, without big central governments.

simbas



Joined: 16/07/2007
Posts: 5943

Message Posted:
16/02/2008 12:46

Hi ilc , we could well have been talking to the same gentleman , i used to see him quite regularly , but we did'nt see him at all last year .

have a good w/e , simbas

ukturk



Joined: 01/09/2007
Posts: 1974

Message Posted:
16/02/2008 14:33

hi guys

i agree with you mark

the diffrence between erdogan he feels he is representing the common people of turkey who feel the trust and bonus of joining the e.u is not present, where gul feels for buisness and pushing turkey into the forefront of trade and industry is paramount

this seems even more a distant dream for all pro europe turks because this year frances presidency for the e.u starts soon and everyone know france objects to turkeys inclussion, now they are talking about if turkey dont accept to the e.u demands then france will put the 'limes strategy' into place this procedure dates back to the roman empire any country or citizen who lived on the borders of the empire and did not have full rights like the romans were intrusted to protect the borders like a buffer zone

below i have a interview from Özdem Sanberk, a former Foreign Ministry undersecretary on his worries on the subject



Sanberk warns Turkish nationalists that if they say "don't bother" with that situation, Turkey will act as a buffer zone -- as it does today -- to benefit the EU without being entitled to enjoying the advantages of membership. "That is what privileged partnership is all about," Sanberk added.

Regarding the Turkish government's shortcomings, Sanberk said the government pursues a multidimensional but active foreign policy course; however, it is short of prioritizing, focusing and showing targets to reach its goals.



"When this is the case, we don't know exactly what Turkey's strategic priorities are. I think it should be the membership goal."

Unless the government appoints a Cabinet minister to deal solely with the negotiations, the foreign minister won't be able to focus on the membership goal, according to Sanberk.

For Monday Talk, Sanberk highlights the expected developments in Turkish foreign policy from relations with the EU to the United States and the Middle East this year.



Are you hopeful for 2008 for Turkey?



We should be realistic. I don't support pessimism which makes us hopeless and inactive. First, we should make up our own mind as to what we want. Rather than what Europe or the United States want us to be.



As the French term presidency in the European Union nears, what shall we expect?



Slovenia will work together with the French in accordance with the European Union system. Therefore, France will try to implement its strategy starting very early this year and the French president's strategy is to get Turkey to walk away from its accession angry.



What do you think Turkey is going to do?



Turkey's European Union vocation is a rational decision, a natural step in the right direction of its foreign policy. We know that most of the reaction comes from the nationalist wing in Turkey against our European Union membership. Indeed, I'm for nationalism, but a nationalism which is not isolationist or angry; rather, one that is open to the outside world. At the same time, I am for a nationalism which embraces its historical legacy. Nationalists should embrace the European Union because 600 years of Turkish history lies on European soil. When a French president tells us that Turks are not Europeans, it is a derogatory statement. Neither Germany nor France have a monopoly over Europe. European states, because they are members to the EU today, do not have the right to determine who is European or not. It is up to us to define our own identity.



As Turkish public opinion becomes less supportive of EU membership, how do you think the Turkish government's policies will take shape in this regard?



If the public authorities take a determined stance, public opinion will follow it. The government was quite positive and clear in 2002 about joining the EU. And in 2004, although Turkey received the word from the EU to start negotiations for full membership, the government announced year 2005 as the year of Africa! It's

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
16/02/2008 18:33

Hi Erkan



Wow, that was extremely informative.

Who has more power Erdogan or Gul? Do they work well together?



It will be interesting to see what happens with France presiding over the EU. I am presuming that Turkey and the TRNC have benefited (although ultimately that support has been limited) from Germanys presidency.

What do you reckon Erkan?

I say that, because Germanys more positive Turkish stance may be influenced by it's large Turkish population, which they either would like to appease, or they have generally become more comfortable with.

Also Schroder seems to have had a positive meeting with Soyer, declaring that the TRNC should be free to trade within the EU. At the same time Schroder was impervious to Papadopoulos's reaction.

I wonder if we will see more German tourists and subsequently more german property purchases.



I see GC presidential candidate Marios Matsaki, has said, that if unification of the island is not possible, then the TRNC should be acknowledged as a seperate state.

Milou - what is his chance of winning the election?



Other points from the Cyprus today newspaper

* The TRNC Foreign minister spoke at the House of Lords asking for Britain to support the lifting of embargoes and to allow direct flights from Britain to Ercan.

*Hasan Sungar, chairman of the TRNC Estate agents union says that the price for plots of land, which, were formerly owned by GC's is set to soar. He claims this is mainly due to the construction ban.

Do people agree with that comment? What do you reckon?

Milou


Joined: 15/10/2007
Posts: 425

Message Posted:
16/02/2008 18:36

Please can someone answer the following:



Does it make any difference who wins in the ROC as I don't believe that the TRNC would join the EU without Turkey joining as well - the TRNC owes it's loyalty to Turkey for obvious reasons. Personally, I would just be happy if the embargoes disappeared this year - maybe the TRNC should sue the UN/EU for imposing illegal embargoes, certainly from the date that the TRNC agreed to the UN plan - agreed in desperation!



Does anyone have any answers to this question? thanks.

Regards

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
17/02/2008 13:08

Hi Milou, I guess we can speculate Milou, but I don't think anyone here can provide the right answer.



It seems to me that there might be other questions that need to be answered, before, one can more fully speculate on your question. You might know the answers to these, because I know you have studied this much more than I have.



1)Firstly, are any of the ROC candidates committed to unification? 2) Or more importantly, Do they genuinely believe in the value of power sharing with the TC's and see the TC's as their kin? 3) Also, do they have the boldness to initiate a number of trust inducing initiatives?

4) And of course, are the GC people themselves committed to unification, hence they are more likely to vote for a pro unification candidate?



If the answer to each of the the above questions is an emphatic no, then unification cannot happen. Nor should it happen, if all the answers are yes, yet question 2 is a no.



If unification cannot happen, then the TRNC stays linked to Turkey. As it depends on Turkey it will follow Turkeys lead. If the TRNC remains unrecognised then Turkey will find it harder to to join the EU. If Turkey really wants to join the EU and the TRNC is still unrecognised then it could abandon the TRNC, but I don't envisage this happening.

So, whilst the TRNC remains unrecognised, it can't breathe on it's own, it has to share it's breath with Turkey and hence it is co dependent.



If the TRNC gets recognised, then this is a different matter. If the TRNC masters self sufficiency, in a way that you have outlined in one of your above posts then this becomes interesting.



If the TRNC becomes self sufficient, and at the same time T

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
17/02/2008 13:14

The self sufficient thing is a massive point and thats why kosovo will be able to make a go of it.Not sure how they stand in t.r.n.c. re-self sufficiency anyone help.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
17/02/2008 13:18

If Turkey doesn't join the EU, but at the same time, the TRNC becomes self sufficent and enjoys the right sort of encouragement from the EU, then it's loyalty to Turkey might be tested.

Quite frankly, I am not qualified to answer whether the TRNC would go it alone and join the EU without Turkey, as I am British and cannot ever understand the Turkish/Cypriot mindset. All I will say is that when groups of people become strong and confident they don't act in the same way as if they are weak and dependent.



All of my musings above are very simplistic, the whole storey is much more complex than I can inadequately describe.



not sure if I have answered yur question milou

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
17/02/2008 13:25

Hi Paul



I don't really know much about about Kosovo. I presume they will be receiving extremely significant funds from the EU. Perhaps most of the people will leave and try and find work in Britain Why would they be any different from Poland, Bulgaria or Moldova. They must be a poor state. What do they have to sell?

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
17/02/2008 13:33

Thanks Mark,

I know what you mean,we can only speculate re-the cyprus problem.As for the kosovons i believe they are or could be a massive farming community and believe they could literally live of the land.Thanks for some very informative posts from Mark,milou and Erkan,

Paul.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
17/02/2008 13:43

Paul, I think the TRNC makes it's money from Construction, tourism, the universities and aid from Turkey.



I agree with Milou about becoming more agriculturally focued, although I am not sure how arable the land is across the whole of the island. I guess Guzelyurt is great for growing.

At the end of the day though, the best commodity the TRNC has is the sun, sea and the samba. This is how it will make it's money. (hope it doesn't get spoiled though)

The south has also made it's money from shipping, but not being able to use Turkeys ports has hurt it's global standing.

Perhaps the TRNC can learn from Spain. Spain doesn't just make it's money from tourism, but tourism under Franco set it on the right path.



It does look as though some foreign companies are starting to invest in the TRNC. This will provide work.



I think Milou is right about self sufficiency. This is going to be true the world over. Raw materials are going to become extremely scarce - water, oil etc is going to become prohibitly expensive, unless we make some pretty large technological breakthroughs.

I am a big fan of Professor james Lovelock. He is calling for the UK to become self sufficient right now. He says we are going to need every available piece of agricultural land we can lay our hands on. Building lots and lots of houses to house the increasing population is probably not going to be sensible.

Milou


Joined: 15/10/2007
Posts: 425

Message Posted:
17/02/2008 14:03

We'll have to get together over a drink (or several) - things seem to be changing so quickly!

regards

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
17/02/2008 14:35

I have found this great Cypriot eating place in Warwick way, Victoria, London. I think it is TC owned. They do a sit down menu and great take away kebabs. Really reminds me of Cyprus.

I am there at least once a week, so if you or anyone cares to join me just let me know. We can talk some politics, have some fun, drink some beer and eat Cypriot food - yummy yummy.

In fact, I have decided I am going to go there today

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
17/02/2008 14:40

I have just checked, it is TC owned. Put 'Cyprus mangal' in to google and you will get more info on it

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
17/02/2008 15:15

Things do seem to be moving at a pace recently whether thats good or bad only time will tell.Would love to have a beer and a chat sometime,wont be able to make london today though mark,as its a bit of a treck.



Did anyone read the disturbing article in the cyprus mail yesterday regarding the effects of global warming in cyprus.It has been predicted that in the not to distant future there will be no tourism at all, due to the meds water levels rising so high all the beaches will be washed away.Longer hotter summers,water shortages,tree erosion due to the water levels.They are predicting that cyprus will be a desert .

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
18/02/2008 00:29

Any input on the global warming,

Paul.

Milou


Joined: 15/10/2007
Posts: 425

Message Posted:
18/02/2008 10:47

Iovecyprus - when we're next in London, I'll let you know to see whether we can meet up at the NC restaurant.



dodger - I believe that the EU is about to declare ROC a drought area which means they'll be getting loads of money to help build reservoirs etc. but not in the north. I really believe that the two things the Government could do in the TRNC is make it compulsory for builders/developers to provide access to grey water to every unit built (baths/showers/washing machines) and to put a ban on single units having swimming pools, so in any development one pool etc. - after all, they've made it compulsory that every unit built has solar! The other critical thing is tress - we should all in the TRNC be growing millions of these as this is the best way of preserving water and attracting the rain.

Regards

OllieD


Joined: 23/10/2007
Posts: 14

Message Posted:
18/02/2008 11:28

The attached link makes interesting reading:



http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/02/18/cyprus.election.ap/index.html

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
18/02/2008 12:12

That's extremely worrying Paul

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
18/02/2008 22:28

Apparenteley some of these changes could start as soon as 2010.Main headlines of the cyprus mail 16/2/08.Anyone know how to get a copy posted on here,its a very worrying article for all concerned.

Bradus


Joined: 25/02/2007
Posts: 2641

Message Posted:
18/02/2008 23:46

Would this be the one Paul?

CYPRUS should brace for less rain, higher temperatures, forest fires, desertification, loss of coastline, flooding and drinking water shortages as global warming bites in the coming decades

.

According to Environment Commissioner Charalambos Theopemptou’s annual report for 2007, the repercussions of climate change for Cyprus cannot be underestimated.

“We will begin to see a 10 to 40 per cent reduction in annual rainfall, with consequences on the amount of drinking water available, which will lead to general health problems for the population,” he explained.



“This will lead to the drying up of trees and bushes. As a result, the land will not be adequately protected and desertification will set in.”

These changes will start to become more apparent from 2010.

Additionally, flooding of coastal areas will become more common due to an increase in sea levels. It is predicted that by 2100, the sea level will rise by one metre across the Mediterranean.



Beaches will be lost and property damaged, and there will also be the danger of seawater contamination of underground water supplies.

There will also be a global temperature increase of two degrees Celsius in the Mediterranean by 2030 and a rise of four degrees by 2100.



Biodiversity will be greatly affected. Summers will be longer and hotter.

The danger of forest fires will be much greater while the high temperatures are expected to facilitate an increase in insects and a general proliferation of disease.

Twenty years ago, snow levels seen in Troodos were as high as two metres during the winter. Now, we are lucky to see a depth of a maximum of 30cm.

According to Theopemptou, tourism will be greatly damaged by climate change, which will have grave consequences for the economy.

“Tourists will no longer be attracted to the island and will instead turn to northern Europe, where the increase in temperature will convert many beaches into tourist attractions.”



He wondered why anybody would spend money “on holidaying in the Mediterranean when the climate will no longer be pleasant, beaches will be destroyed, drinking water will be hard to come by and the area’s natural beauty will be no longer.”

When asked what the cause of the climate change is, the Commissioner said it was mainly due to the greenhouse effect.



“There is too much CO2 and methane in the upper atmosphere as a result of the excess burning of fossil fuels,” he explained.

“Economic development must not go hand-in-hand with carbon emissions. To reduce emissions, we need to change the fuel [oil] used in electricity-generating plants, hence the recent discussions on natural gas.”



He added: “We should reduce the amount of energy which we use and look at increasing our renewable energy percentage by using alternative technologies, such as photovoltaic, wind and solar.



“The government is taking this issue extremely seriously and we are commissioning the scientific community to conduct research concerning the economic and environmental implications of these changes in Cyprus. This needs to be done as soon as possible.”



Early adoption by Council and Parliament of the European Commission’s legislative proposals on climate change can help to ensure the EU meets its Kyoto Protocol targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, European Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas said yesterday. He was speaking ahead of today’s third anniversary of the Protocol’s entry into force.



“The period during which the EU and other industrialised countries must meet our Kyoto emission targets – the 2008-2012 commitment period – started on January 1 this year,” Commissioner Dimas said.



“The most recent emission projections show we are on the right track, but the early adoption and implementation of proposals put forward by the Commission would help to ensure success. I am referring to legisl

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
18/02/2008 23:53

Thanks Sue,

Thats the one,and thank you for taking the time out to type it,very worrying dont you think,

Paul.

Bradus


Joined: 25/02/2007
Posts: 2641

Message Posted:
19/02/2008 00:09

I think it is very disturbing. Whats more there are many statistics to support the arguement. Each year Cyprus's rainfall gets less and less and last year was one of the hottest on record. They can hardly cope with the water shortage now, goodness knows what it will be like in a few years time. Looking on the bright side however, it will become an all year round destination (for non swimmers and those that don't like beaches) I hear that the EU is providing money for the south to create more lakes and desalination plants. There was talk of bringing in piped water from the Turkish mainland to the north. Sounds like they should start digging! Problem with most governments is they tend to be more reactive than proactive, so can't see much being done untill people begin to suffer the effects.

OllieD


Joined: 23/10/2007
Posts: 14

Message Posted:
25/02/2008 17:22

Do you think this will happen?



http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/mhojauojojau/

Bradus


Joined: 25/02/2007
Posts: 2641

Message Posted:
25/02/2008 20:20

Ollie,



I think its jumping the gun. Its far too early to see what will happen and if this is just based on "election speech". It would take years to draft a settlement, possibly put it to the vote and then the hardest part implement it. Any agreement would most likely be implemented stage by stage. With this in mind 2008 seems totally unrealistic. Hopefully what they will achieve in 2008 is more dialogue between the GC, and TC government and the united nations.

pilgrim



Joined: 11/05/2007
Posts: 1404

Message Posted:
25/02/2008 21:19

Bradus, succinct as usual.

regards

p

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
25/02/2008 22:08

Totally agree Sue,

Dont forget there could well be a lot of broken promises to come now they have been elected.Step by step has to be the strategy,perhaps the opening of another crossing point would be seen as a gesture.and then talks on direct flights.All these things will take time,but as long as both sides are talking its a start.

Regards,

Paul.

Bradus


Joined: 25/02/2007
Posts: 2641

Message Posted:
25/02/2008 23:19

I get the impression from talking to a few GC's that Christofias has promised that he would be giving priority to sorting the property problem out. There was talk of the GC's who are still living in TC homes being given the opportunity to buy them. Papadopulous never allowed this and as we all know frowned on all GC's that went through the immovable property commission. Such action will lead to interesting debate and will certainly be a challenge for Christofias. How will the TC's feel who own the houses to be sold in the south? Or are most happy because they own in North now anyway? Will it have financial repercussions as land/houses in south worth considerably more than in north. Will the TC who sold his house to the Brit in the north still have a claim on his house in the south.More importantly will the TRNC agree to pay any property compensation as part of a settlement package? Interesting times ahead and I'm sure we will have lots to talk about?

pilgrim



Joined: 11/05/2007
Posts: 1404

Message Posted:
26/02/2008 00:13

Sue you pose plenty of good questions and scenarios , looking forward to see how they plan out. Agree will certainly keep our interest up.

regards

p

dawnie


Joined: 14/08/2007
Posts: 12

Message Posted:
26/02/2008 12:18

An interesting speech made in the UK



http://www.trncinfo.com/TANITMADAIRESI/ARSIV2008/ENGLISHarcive/FEBRUARY/010208.HTM

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
26/02/2008 20:23

Dawnie,

Thanks for posting this it is indeed very interesting reading and shows the other side to the coin,

Regards,

Paul.

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
26/02/2008 20:38

Foreign powers hail new hope for talks.The un eu Britain and the us are all eager for an early meeting between Chrisofias and Talat.As reported in todays Cyprus Mail.



"solution now" demanded the front page of the left wing paper afrika.

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
01/03/2008 00:59

How do the norths papers portray the election results?

larry f


Joined: 29/01/2008
Posts: 116

Message Posted:
01/03/2008 02:18

Hi Dodger,

All good news since the election, everyone wants to talk to everyone else

type in: http://www.brtk.cc/index.php/lang/en/cat/2/news/18125

and click on latest news on the left hand side of the page to get the newspapers views

Larry

steelman550


Joined: 06/01/2008
Posts: 41

Message Posted:
01/03/2008 04:24

Hi Dodger, I love cyprus,milou.

Read with interest your comments regarding the new talks. How good it will be for property values and tourists, cheap flights etc.

Have i missed something,if there is a settlement then what happens to everyone who has purchased in N Cyprus with trnc deeds. I know there was suppose to be a compensation procedure for G Cypriots but will this still stand when the island is reunified.

I have read on other sites that settlers, as we are called on G Cypriot goverment

web sites will be prosecuted. N Cyprus goverment sites ,we are called foreigners. What i did find interesting was that they would prosecute buyers but there was nothing mentioned about developers, who had to purchase the land in the first place. What i am trying to say is, yes great that there is a chance that the island can be whole again, but does anyone know if the N Cypriot goverment is going to stand by the people, who when most of the world wasn't interested, invested in the North and helped their economy and showed a genuine friendship and unity with the Turkish Cypriot people.



Regards

Sam.

daily


Joined: 01/01/2008
Posts: 84

Message Posted:
01/03/2008 12:44

I have read somewhere that in the event of a settlement, there is a possible chance that buyers would contribute to the compensation pot - but not through loss of property. The T.R.N.C.'s Property Commission has laws about the improvement of original land or homes belonging to GCs - if substantially improved, cannot be relinquished. However, I think we could be expected to pay a compensation percentage in line with pre-1974 land prices - which would be a relatively minimal amount (several thousand pounds).

steelman550


Joined: 06/01/2008
Posts: 41

Message Posted:
01/03/2008 13:13

Hi Daily,

Why don't the developers pay the compensation, after all they were the ones

that bought the land in the first place. I assume they paid the N Cyprus goverment money to purchase the land and be allowed to build their developments . Ha! how about the goverment paying lol.



Regards

Sam.

daily


Joined: 01/01/2008
Posts: 84

Message Posted:
01/03/2008 14:59

nice idea but it probably won't happen - i'm ok with it as long as it is at pre-1974 land prices - small price to pay for such a beautiful place, people, their safety and relative freedom methinks!

OllieD


Joined: 23/10/2007
Posts: 14

Message Posted:
06/03/2008 11:12

Check out:-



http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/mhojkfidojoj/

Milou


Joined: 15/10/2007
Posts: 425

Message Posted:
06/03/2008 11:30

Just read the above post - here we go again - it's an old, old story - it's like liestening to a parrot!



regards

pilgrim



Joined: 11/05/2007
Posts: 1404

Message Posted:
06/03/2008 19:50

Whats the view if you just own a plot and havn't had the chance to improve it by building on it yet? anything ever been said?

OllieD


Joined: 23/10/2007
Posts: 14

Message Posted:
19/03/2008 12:15

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7304397.stm

dodger



Joined: 29/07/2007
Posts: 1895

Message Posted:
19/03/2008 17:58

Didnt they say that in 2004,

Regards,

Paul.