Turkey's entry into Europe - In doubt, say some !

OllieD


Joined: 10/23/2007
Posts: 13


Message Posted:
2/11/2008 10:54:

After speaking with our Turkish Lawyer today, he emphatically said that he does not envisage Turkey joining the EU for at least one, if not another two decades.



Obvioulsy for those of us investing in resiential property in TRNC and hoping on some capital appreciation on the back of Turkey joining the EU, his comments are somewhat alarming.



Does anyone else have any thoughts on this?

wynyardman



Joined: 12/15/2007
Posts: 1607


Message Posted:
2/11/2008 11:42:

Presumably, if the Cyprus Problem is resolved during 2008, by way of unification, then the Island of Cyprus would be in the Eu!



No doubt if my understanding is wrong,I shall soon be told!



Please dont tell me that there will be no unification. Enough people are pushing for it. We shall just have to wait and see!

millzer



Joined: 4/12/2007
Posts: 137


Message Posted:
2/12/2008 8:04:0

Correct wynyardman,



The WHOLE of Cyprus is already 'technically' in the EU. It's just that the 'acquis' (EU powers) is suspended in the North pending a settlement. Like you, I hope that there will be re-unification in the next couple of years that would open up the whole island and allow Cypriots to put the Cyprus problem where it belongs.... in history.



I guess the chances od a solution depends a lot on who wins the ROC presidential election next week.

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/12/2008 8:06:0

Ollie,

Does your lawyer have a crystal ball,what is he basis this staement on,



Regards,

Paul.

rtddci


Joined: 12/29/2007
Posts: 534


Message Posted:
2/12/2008 4:51:0

The International Crisis Group have published a report in Jan 08 which is worth reading re Cyprus : http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5255&l=1



Martin

ukturk



Joined: 9/1/2007
Posts: 1916


Message Posted:
2/12/2008 8:24:0

ollie

i agree with dodger on this!!!! where does your lawyer get his info from, he must have great insight in to e.u politics

i would not take turkeys inclusion in the e.u putting you off in to buying in north cyprus because the housing maket has prospered in turkey and north cyprus without them joining the e.u up to now, just take a look at house prices how they have increased over the last 5 years and just ask any of the locals who cant get on the property ladder in recent years because of the increase, even thou it has leveled out a bit last year, but this has got nothing to do with loss of interest in turkey or cyprus but more with increase in interest rates world wide and inflation because some people who do buy holiday homes release some of their equity in their homes in the u.k etc

im not going to go about north cyprus unifying with the south because anyone who knows me on this forum know how i feel about this situation

NO TRUST!!!!!

so my final words is dont take your mystic meg lawyers fortune telling info on board too much!!!!

regards

ukturk

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/13/2008 8:26:0

Mystic meg i like that mate,or even gypsee rose lee.

p4aul


Joined: 10/12/2007
Posts: 27


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 7:36:0

Millzer wrote:

Correct wynyardman,



The WHOLE of Cyprus is already 'technically' in the EU. It's just that the 'acquis' (EU powers) is suspended in the North pending a settlement. Like you, I hope that there will be re-unification in the next couple of years that would open up the whole island and allow Cypriots to put the Cyprus problem where it belongs.... in history.



I guess the chances od a solution depends a lot on who wins the ROC presidential election next week.



________________________________________________________________



I think you will find that the WHOLE of Cyprus is not actually in the EU, the UK bases are excluded form the EU.

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 8:23:0

The one that not a lot of people on this forum seem to want to comment on.Its a shame that the cider post gets more hits then the greek cyp election,

Regards,

Paul.

Milou


Joined: 10/15/2007
Posts: 348


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 9:42:0

Hi dodger



I am beginning to wonder whether it will make any difference who wins in the ROC as I don't believe that the TRNC would join the EU without Turkey joining as well - the TRNC owes it's loyalty to Turkey for obvious reasons. Personally, I would just be happy if the embargoes disappeared this year - maybe the TRNC should sue the UN/EU for imposing illegal embargoes, certainly from the date that the TRNC agreed to the UN plan - agreed in desperation!



I am one of those who believe that countries do best by depending on themselves for wealth creation and not being bound by endless cash debts - the TRNC shouldn't rely on too much tourism or expat retiress but look at massive farming expansion for export, giving incentives in producing end goods for export, looking at ways to conserve water and yes, growing millions of trees which will go a long way to conserving water. The government should only allow one pool per development - easily done, simply ban single unit having pools.



I don't believe the answer is the EU - the answer lies in the TRNC having a serious 20 year plan - I am confident that as water, oil and bread becomes ever more expensive, governments will start realising that globalization and the EU is not the solution - self sufficiency is the answer.

Regards

Milou


Joined: 10/15/2007
Posts: 348


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 9:57:0

Hi gang



Anyone who wants to read one of the most relevant economic books:



E F Schumacher - "Small is Beautiful" - a study of economics as if people mattered. Although this book was written some 35 years ago, it's as if Schumacher wrote it for the economic problems the world is facing today. I really would encourage every student to read it and I would also make it compulsory reading for anyone in government!

Regards

millzer



Joined: 4/12/2007
Posts: 137


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 11:25:

Ok Paul if you want to be particularly pedantic about it. I think most people knew what I was getting at though!

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 2:42:0

Now now chaps

pilgrim



Joined: 5/11/2007
Posts: 717


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 5:12:0

Not really worried about capitol appreaciation, Think reunification will definitely benefit both sides, but prepared to wait, actually like it as it is.

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 6:09:0

Milou,

enjoyed your no 10 post,but what exactly are the north allowed to export.dont they have to contend with embargos etc,

Paul.

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 6:18:0

Here we go again,Cyprus are to take the eu to the highest court in the land regarding a payment of 259 million euros paid to the turkish cypriots.Why dont they just butt out.

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 6:36:0

News hound dodge here just letting you know that russias preident putin has stated that the t.r.n.c. has been a "de-facto republic for forty years".doesnt mince with his words that guy.

pilgrim



Joined: 5/11/2007
Posts: 717


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 6:41:0

just people

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 6:44:0

Fair point, but then so do most presidents and or dictators

pilgrim



Joined: 5/11/2007
Posts: 717


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 6:51:0

If he helps the Trnc get recognised hes my comrade!

simma


Joined: 2/3/2008
Posts: 267


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 7:20:0

Not really too fussed myself. don't think most Turks or tc's are either. Lifting embargo's and direct flight's would do me fine.

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 7:33:0

I just thought it was unusual for an outsider to have the balls to come out with something nearer the truth for once,

Regards,

Paul.

Milou


Joined: 10/15/2007
Posts: 348


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 7:43:0

Hi Dodger



Yes, you're right, all exports have to either go through ROC or Turkey - I was thinking of the future when finally all the embargoes are lifted!

Regards

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/14/2008 10:06:

Me right i dont believe it must be all the reading i have been doing on the cyprus problem,

Regards,

Paul.

Milou


Joined: 10/15/2007
Posts: 348


Message Posted:
2/15/2008 9:51:0

dodger - no, it comes from being a health and safety officer!!!

regards

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/15/2008 1:10:0

No were always wrong milou.

pilgrim



Joined: 5/11/2007
Posts: 717


Message Posted:
2/15/2008 6:21:0

Both of you Wow, their on the march, watch it folks.

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/15/2008 7:19:0

My old mate putin is at it again (bless) he is accusing europe of double standards,drawinng parallels between kosovo and northern cyprus.And also the russian first deputy has said that if the eu and nato countries recognise kosovos indepence,they will have to recognize that of the t.r.n.c.,

Regards,

news hound dodge.

pilgrim



Joined: 5/11/2007
Posts: 717


Message Posted:
2/15/2008 7:40:0

Good info Dodger, have you got an annual subsciption to Pravda?

cheers

p

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/15/2008 8:28:0

thats my cover blown mate.lol

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/15/2008 8:37:0

Chris Davies m.e.p. has told local villagers that they should consider a campaign of direct action against the soverign base administration in cyprus.He called for an end to the arrangements that put 8,000 cypriots under british millitary jurisdiction.



Mr Davies claimed that if the same situation existed in britain and citizens living close to the american air bases came under control of the pentagon,there would be an outcry.



He was concerned to know why ploiticians in cyprus raised the issue so rarely that hardly anyone in britain has any idea at all about the situation.



lots going on folks,

News hound dodge.

pilgrim



Joined: 5/11/2007
Posts: 717


Message Posted:
2/15/2008 8:44:0

News Hound,Reckon you have the Times & Guardian too. impressed.

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/15/2008 9:19:0

Pilgrim,

Actually i just make it up as i go along lol.

simbas



Joined: 7/16/2007
Posts: 1616


Message Posted:
2/15/2008 9:26:0

hi paul , yeh your right , people do sit on the fence when they feel uncomfortable with certain things , me being one of them , with nc not being my country of birth or residence , i did'nt feel i had the right to comment , but on a purely personal and selfish note , i do not relish reunification , and on talking to some old gentleman in gazimagosa some years ago , on the subject of reunification , which left me in tears , has had a lasting affect on me. i cant help my feelings rightly or wrongly

have a good w/e pat

ilovecyprus



Joined: 5/8/2007
Posts: 1009


Message Posted:
2/16/2008 10:28:

Hey Simbas. I wonder if we have spoken to the same guy, an old boy who hangs around the cafe's, in Famagusta. He told me about his plight and the death of his wife. Very moving. No love lost between him and the GC's.



Did anyone watch bbc2 on Tuesday evening? There was a programme about Europe in the 20's. Most of the programme featured the war between Greece and Turkey. The programme was interesting, but the event was absolutely horrific. Villages were completely destroyed and people murdered in their droves. Like the Cyprus affair there are still some displaced people, both Greeks and Turks.

I can't help but think. that Cyprus, was just a continuation of that war. Both sides had unfinished business.



You are right Erkan. Trust is the issue between GC's and TC's.



Paul - Seems like the TRNC is just being treated like a political pawn in the Kosovo affair. The ROC voted against Kosovos independence, purely in their own self interest,(although this has probably backfired on them) and now Russia is using the TRNC to argue the case for it's ally Serbia, and score political points. Who know's perhaps this is a good thing for the TRNC!



I have no idea about Turkeys future in the EU. Who needs who more? Europe probably needs it's young and increasingly well educated population to bolstor the EU economic machine, but parts of the Union are worried about the Secularist/Islamist internal battle, which seems to be taking place. The eu is also, likley, to be uncomforatble with article 301.

Turkey is doing alright economically on it's own. It is now the 17th largest economy in the world and is recognised as being the powerhouse in it's region. It also doesn't want the EU sticking it's nose in to the Kurdish issue.



Who knows, Turkey might be looking East for it's aliiances rather than West.



Interestingly, it seems that Erdogan is increasingly moving away from the idea of EU membership, whereas, Gul is still pro EU. Not sure how the power is distributed between these two guys, and what is driving their individual perspectives. Perhaps Erkan can enlighten me? If you have time mate?



Milou - agree with much of what you say. For me, small is beautiful. Big has many benefits, but these are often outweighed by beauracracy and waste. Self sufficiency is going to be a big issue for countries, however, we are going to have to find ways to stay connected and coperative with each other, without big central governments.

simbas



Joined: 7/16/2007
Posts: 1616


Message Posted:
2/16/2008 10:46:

Hi ilc , we could well have been talking to the same gentleman , i used to see him quite regularly , but we did'nt see him at all last year .

have a good w/e , simbas

ukturk



Joined: 9/1/2007
Posts: 1916


Message Posted:
2/16/2008 12:33:

hi guys

i agree with you mark

the diffrence between erdogan he feels he is representing the common people of turkey who feel the trust and bonus of joining the e.u is not present, where gul feels for buisness and pushing turkey into the forefront of trade and industry is paramount

this seems even more a distant dream for all pro europe turks because this year frances presidency for the e.u starts soon and everyone know france objects to turkeys inclussion, now they are talking about if turkey dont accept to the e.u demands then france will put the 'limes strategy' into place this procedure dates back to the roman empire any country or citizen who lived on the borders of the empire and did not have full rights like the romans were intrusted to protect the borders like a buffer zone

below i have a interview from Özdem Sanberk, a former Foreign Ministry undersecretary on his worries on the subject



Sanberk warns Turkish nationalists that if they say "don't bother" with that situation, Turkey will act as a buffer zone -- as it does today -- to benefit the EU without being entitled to enjoying the advantages of membership. "That is what privileged partnership is all about," Sanberk added.

Regarding the Turkish government's shortcomings, Sanberk said the government pursues a multidimensional but active foreign policy course; however, it is short of prioritizing, focusing and showing targets to reach its goals.



"When this is the case, we don't know exactly what Turkey's strategic priorities are. I think it should be the membership goal."

Unless the government appoints a Cabinet minister to deal solely with the negotiations, the foreign minister won't be able to focus on the membership goal, according to Sanberk.

For Monday Talk, Sanberk highlights the expected developments in Turkish foreign policy from relations with the EU to the United States and the Middle East this year.



Are you hopeful for 2008 for Turkey?



We should be realistic. I don't support pessimism which makes us hopeless and inactive. First, we should make up our own mind as to what we want. Rather than what Europe or the United States want us to be.



As the French term presidency in the European Union nears, what shall we expect?



Slovenia will work together with the French in accordance with the European Union system. Therefore, France will try to implement its strategy starting very early this year and the French president's strategy is to get Turkey to walk away from its accession angry.



What do you think Turkey is going to do?



Turkey's European Union vocation is a rational decision, a natural step in the right direction of its foreign policy. We know that most of the reaction comes from the nationalist wing in Turkey against our European Union membership. Indeed, I'm for nationalism, but a nationalism which is not isolationist or angry; rather, one that is open to the outside world. At the same time, I am for a nationalism which embraces its historical legacy. Nationalists should embrace the European Union because 600 years of Turkish history lies on European soil. When a French president tells us that Turks are not Europeans, it is a derogatory statement. Neither Germany nor France have a monopoly over Europe. European states, because they are members to the EU today, do not have the right to determine who is European or not. It is up to us to define our own identity.



As Turkish public opinion becomes less supportive of EU membership, how do you think the Turkish government's policies will take shape in this regard?



If the public authorities take a determined stance, public opinion will follow it. The government was quite positive and clear in 2002 about joining the EU. And in 2004, although Turkey received the word from the EU to start negotiations for full membership, the government announced year 2005 as the year of Africa! It's a contradiction blurring the minds of people. I think Turkey lost its notion of priority from then on and could not focus on its membership goal.



Could this change this year?



The government follows a very active foreign policy course; it is multidimensional, but it is short of prioritizing, focusing and showing targets to reach goals. When this is the case, we don't know exactly what Turkey's strategic priorities are. I think it should be the membership goal. But obviously, Turkey should comprehend its situation in the changing world.



Where do you think Turkey belongs in the world that is changing?



The world is being divided between democracies and autocracies. Turkey must be part and parcel of the commonwealth of democracies. That is why Turkey belongs to the transatlantic community and therefore belongs to the EU as we uphold pluralism and the rule of law. At the same time we cannot say that they should go to hell if they don't accept us because it would amount to abdicating from our 600-year-old history in Europe. The EU increasingly moves toward adopting a homogenous foreign policy. If we leave the course, that means we yield our historical and cultural ties in the Balkans and Southeastern Europe to others. I think the government should definitely give priority to the accession process. There are also economical ties on both sides which cannot be ignored.



The leaders have recently said they will take unprecedented steps toward that goal. Do you think they will do it?



The government pursues an active foreign policy and concentrates on urgent regional issues as well as on developing regional ties. Foreign policy makers obviously know that Turkey's contribution to regional peace and security will be an asset for the EU as well. I surely agree with this strategy which was initially adopted by former President Turgut Özal. Following the same course, the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) governments have increased Turkey's influence in the Middle East and the Caucasus in the last five years. But are we really headed toward the EU? I'm not sure.



What kind of moves would be convincing?



The government should clearly tell the Turkish public that with the winds from the Middle East and the Caucasus beneath our wings, our goal is to be a member of the European Union. Public opinion would comprehend these messages if they came clearly from the state and followed the course positively.



What else?



I think the government should appoint a Cabinet minister to solely deal with the negotiations rather than leaving that task to the foreign minister, who can easily be distracted with all other foreign affairs issues. Even though we have a lot of dynamism in foreign policy, it is not focused and the sailing ship remains on wavy waters.



What if Turkey chooses to not pursue membership?



We will simply be a buffer zone.



Like [French President Nicolas] Sarkozy wants?



Yes, like he wants, like the limes policy in the days of the Roman Empire. According to this policy, at the limes, that means at the borders of the empire, lived citizens who did not have the rights of the Romans, but their task was to prevent barbarian tribes from invading Rome. The EU is pursuing the limes strategy, and our nationalists say, "Don't bother," without knowing that we will act as a buffer zone as we do today to benefit the EU without being entitled to enjoying the blessings of membership. That is what privileged partnership is all about.



Some in Turkey say we can get rid of the cases at the European Court of Human Rights by not becoming a member of the EU. Is this true?



This is not true. If we throw in the towel today, we will still be under the jurisdiction of the court as we are a party to the Human Rights Convention of the Council of Europe, like the rest of the continent, including Ukraine and Russia.



In a way, don't you think Turkey broke what you call the 'limes strategy' because it is already in accession negotiations?



Yes, Turkey today is a country in accession negotiations. That means the union has modified its initial strategy regarding Turkey. But there are still serious uncertainties in our accession process as well as a lot of ambiguity in the future shape of the EU. Europe draws its legitimacy upon its self-interrogation. The EU is an eternal world of debates and conflicts. We also have a lot of debate in Turkey today. But what we need is to define our goal in a clearer way. Political parties, the civil society and professional organizations should commit themselves to the accession process.



What would you say about the relations with the US in 2008?



We should not expect our relations with the United States to be as they were in the Cold War era. Turkey was a key factor in US containment policies of the Soviet Union during the Cold War and the Iraq of Saddam later on. The Soviet Union disappeared and Saddam is not there anymore, either. Today we don't have a core concept which will animate our bilateral relations with the US. It is too early to say whether we will be able to find a new area of convergence other than the security issues on which we can build our relations so powerfully.



Could Turkey respond to US expectations regarding Iran, for example?



I don't think so. Turkish foreign policy toward Iran is closer to the European course. We are for an engagement policy. The same goes for Syria and Lebanon. But we are working together with the US in Afghanistan and Pakistan.



Some Turks wonder about what Turkey compromised at the meeting in the White House on Nov. 5. Was there a compromise on the Turkish side?



Turkey didn't compromise anything on Nov. 5, but the US saw the right path. In other words, the US saw the role Turkey can play in the region and the wider zone and gave its full support to Turkey on the fight against terrorism. Now the government has to assume its responsibility to deal effectively with the anti-Americanism in Turkey.

ilovecyprus



Joined: 5/8/2007
Posts: 1009


Message Posted:
2/16/2008 4:33:0

Hi Erkan



Wow, that was extremely informative.

Who has more power Erdogan or Gul? Do they work well together?



It will be interesting to see what happens with France presiding over the EU. I am presuming that Turkey and the TRNC have benefited (although ultimately that support has been limited) from Germanys presidency.

What do you reckon Erkan?

I say that, because Germanys more positive Turkish stance may be influenced by it's large Turkish population, which they either would like to appease, or they have generally become more comfortable with.

Also Schroder seems to have had a positive meeting with Soyer, declaring that the TRNC should be free to trade within the EU. At the same time Schroder was impervious to Papadopoulos's reaction.

I wonder if we will see more German tourists and subsequently more german property purchases.



I see GC presidential candidate Marios Matsaki, has said, that if unification of the island is not possible, then the TRNC should be acknowledged as a seperate state.

Milou - what is his chance of winning the election?



Other points from the Cyprus today newspaper

* The TRNC Foreign minister spoke at the House of Lords asking for Britain to support the lifting of embargoes and to allow direct flights from Britain to Ercan.

*Hasan Sungar, chairman of the TRNC Estate agents union says that the price for plots of land, which, were formerly owned by GC's is set to soar. He claims this is mainly due to the construction ban.

Do people agree with that comment? What do you reckon?

Milou


Joined: 10/15/2007
Posts: 348


Message Posted:
2/16/2008 4:36:0

Please can someone answer the following:



Does it make any difference who wins in the ROC as I don't believe that the TRNC would join the EU without Turkey joining as well - the TRNC owes it's loyalty to Turkey for obvious reasons. Personally, I would just be happy if the embargoes disappeared this year - maybe the TRNC should sue the UN/EU for imposing illegal embargoes, certainly from the date that the TRNC agreed to the UN plan - agreed in desperation!



Does anyone have any answers to this question? thanks.

Regards

ilovecyprus



Joined: 5/8/2007
Posts: 1009


Message Posted:
2/17/2008 11:08:

Hi Milou, I guess we can speculate Milou, but I don't think anyone here can provide the right answer.



It seems to me that there might be other questions that need to be answered, before, one can more fully speculate on your question. You might know the answers to these, because I know you have studied this much more than I have.



1)Firstly, are any of the ROC candidates committed to unification? 2) Or more importantly, Do they genuinely believe in the value of power sharing with the TC's and see the TC's as their kin? 3) Also, do they have the boldness to initiate a number of trust inducing initiatives?

4) And of course, are the GC people themselves committed to unification, hence they are more likely to vote for a pro unification candidate?



If the answer to each of the the above questions is an emphatic no, then unification cannot happen. Nor should it happen, if all the answers are yes, yet question 2 is a no.



If unification cannot happen, then the TRNC stays linked to Turkey. As it depends on Turkey it will follow Turkeys lead. If the TRNC remains unrecognised then Turkey will find it harder to to join the EU. If Turkey really wants to join the EU and the TRNC is still unrecognised then it could abandon the TRNC, but I don't envisage this happening.

So, whilst the TRNC remains unrecognised, it can't breathe on it's own, it has to share it's breath with Turkey and hence it is co dependent.



If the TRNC gets recognised, then this is a different matter. If the TRNC masters self sufficiency, in a way that you have outlined in one of your above posts then this becomes interesting.



If the TRNC becomes self sufficient, and at the same time T

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/17/2008 11:14:

The self sufficient thing is a massive point and thats why kosovo will be able to make a go of it.Not sure how they stand in t.r.n.c. re-self sufficiency anyone help.

ilovecyprus



Joined: 5/8/2007
Posts: 1009


Message Posted:
2/17/2008 11:18:

If Turkey doesn't join the EU, but at the same time, the TRNC becomes self sufficent and enjoys the right sort of encouragement from the EU, then it's loyalty to Turkey might be tested.

Quite frankly, I am not qualified to answer whether the TRNC would go it alone and join the EU without Turkey, as I am British and cannot ever understand the Turkish/Cypriot mindset. All I will say is that when groups of people become strong and confident they don't act in the same way as if they are weak and dependent.



All of my musings above are very simplistic, the whole storey is much more complex than I can inadequately describe.



not sure if I have answered yur question milou

ilovecyprus



Joined: 5/8/2007
Posts: 1009


Message Posted:
2/17/2008 11:25:

Hi Paul



I don't really know much about about Kosovo. I presume they will be receiving extremely significant funds from the EU. Perhaps most of the people will leave and try and find work in Britain Why would they be any different from Poland, Bulgaria or Moldova. They must be a poor state. What do they have to sell?

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/17/2008 11:33:

Thanks Mark,

I know what you mean,we can only speculate re-the cyprus problem.As for the kosovons i believe they are or could be a massive farming community and believe they could literally live of the land.Thanks for some very informative posts from Mark,milou and Erkan,

Paul.

ilovecyprus



Joined: 5/8/2007
Posts: 1009


Message Posted:
2/17/2008 11:43:

Paul, I think the TRNC makes it's money from Construction, tourism, the universities and aid from Turkey.



I agree with Milou about becoming more agriculturally focued, although I am not sure how arable the land is across the whole of the island. I guess Guzelyurt is great for growing.

At the end of the day though, the best commodity the TRNC has is the sun, sea and the samba. This is how it will make it's money. (hope it doesn't get spoiled though)

The south has also made it's money from shipping, but not being able to use Turkeys ports has hurt it's global standing.

Perhaps the TRNC can learn from Spain. Spain doesn't just make it's money from tourism, but tourism under Franco set it on the right path.



It does look as though some foreign companies are starting to invest in the TRNC. This will provide work.



I think Milou is right about self sufficiency. This is going to be true the world over. Raw materials are going to become extremely scarce - water, oil etc is going to become prohibitly expensive, unless we make some pretty large technological breakthroughs.

I am a big fan of Professor james Lovelock. He is calling for the UK to become self sufficient right now. He says we are going to need every available piece of agricultural land we can lay our hands on. Building lots and lots of houses to house the increasing population is probably not going to be sensible.

Milou


Joined: 10/15/2007
Posts: 348


Message Posted:
2/17/2008 12:03:

We'll have to get together over a drink (or several) - things seem to be changing so quickly!

regards

ilovecyprus



Joined: 5/8/2007
Posts: 1009


Message Posted:
2/17/2008 12:35:

I have found this great Cypriot eating place in Warwick way, Victoria, London. I think it is TC owned. They do a sit down menu and great take away kebabs. Really reminds me of Cyprus.

I am there at least once a week, so if you or anyone cares to join me just let me know. We can talk some politics, have some fun, drink some beer and eat Cypriot food - yummy yummy.

In fact, I have decided I am going to go there today

ilovecyprus



Joined: 5/8/2007
Posts: 1009


Message Posted:
2/17/2008 12:40:

I have just checked, it is TC owned. Put 'Cyprus mangal' in to google and you will get more info on it

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/17/2008 1:15:0

Things do seem to be moving at a pace recently whether thats good or bad only time will tell.Would love to have a beer and a chat sometime,wont be able to make london today though mark,as its a bit of a treck.



Did anyone read the disturbing article in the cyprus mail yesterday regarding the effects of global warming in cyprus.It has been predicted that in the not to distant future there will be no tourism at all, due to the meds water levels rising so high all the beaches will be washed away.Longer hotter summers,water shortages,tree erosion due to the water levels.They are predicting that cyprus will be a desert .

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/17/2008 10:29:

Any input on the global warming,

Paul.

Milou


Joined: 10/15/2007
Posts: 348


Message Posted:
2/18/2008 8:47:0

Iovecyprus - when we're next in London, I'll let you know to see whether we can meet up at the NC restaurant.



dodger - I believe that the EU is about to declare ROC a drought area which means they'll be getting loads of money to help build reservoirs etc. but not in the north. I really believe that the two things the Government could do in the TRNC is make it compulsory for builders/developers to provide access to grey water to every unit built (baths/showers/washing machines) and to put a ban on single units having swimming pools, so in any development one pool etc. - after all, they've made it compulsory that every unit built has solar! The other critical thing is tress - we should all in the TRNC be growing millions of these as this is the best way of preserving water and attracting the rain.

Regards

OllieD


Joined: 10/23/2007
Posts: 13


Message Posted:
2/18/2008 9:28:0

The attached link makes interesting reading:



http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/02/18/cyprus.election.ap/index.html

ilovecyprus



Joined: 5/8/2007
Posts: 1009


Message Posted:
2/18/2008 10:12:

That's extremely worrying Paul

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/18/2008 8:28:0

Apparenteley some of these changes could start as soon as 2010.Main headlines of the cyprus mail 16/2/08.Anyone know how to get a copy posted on here,its a very worrying article for all concerned.

Bradus


Joined: 2/25/2007
Posts: 754


Message Posted:
2/18/2008 9:46:0

Would this be the one Paul?

CYPRUS should brace for less rain, higher temperatures, forest fires, desertification, loss of coastline, flooding and drinking water shortages as global warming bites in the coming decades

.

According to Environment Commissioner Charalambos Theopemptou’s annual report for 2007, the repercussions of climate change for Cyprus cannot be underestimated.

“We will begin to see a 10 to 40 per cent reduction in annual rainfall, with consequences on the amount of drinking water available, which will lead to general health problems for the population,” he explained.



“This will lead to the drying up of trees and bushes. As a result, the land will not be adequately protected and desertification will set in.”

These changes will start to become more apparent from 2010.

Additionally, flooding of coastal areas will become more common due to an increase in sea levels. It is predicted that by 2100, the sea level will rise by one metre across the Mediterranean.



Beaches will be lost and property damaged, and there will also be the danger of seawater contamination of underground water supplies.

There will also be a global temperature increase of two degrees Celsius in the Mediterranean by 2030 and a rise of four degrees by 2100.



Biodiversity will be greatly affected. Summers will be longer and hotter.

The danger of forest fires will be much greater while the high temperatures are expected to facilitate an increase in insects and a general proliferation of disease.

Twenty years ago, snow levels seen in Troodos were as high as two metres during the winter. Now, we are lucky to see a depth of a maximum of 30cm.

According to Theopemptou, tourism will be greatly damaged by climate change, which will have grave consequences for the economy.

“Tourists will no longer be attracted to the island and will instead turn to northern Europe, where the increase in temperature will convert many beaches into tourist attractions.”



He wondered why anybody would spend money “on holidaying in the Mediterranean when the climate will no longer be pleasant, beaches will be destroyed, drinking water will be hard to come by and the area’s natural beauty will be no longer.”

When asked what the cause of the climate change is, the Commissioner said it was mainly due to the greenhouse effect.



“There is too much CO2 and methane in the upper atmosphere as a result of the excess burning of fossil fuels,” he explained.

“Economic development must not go hand-in-hand with carbon emissions. To reduce emissions, we need to change the fuel [oil] used in electricity-generating plants, hence the recent discussions on natural gas.”



He added: “We should reduce the amount of energy which we use and look at increasing our renewable energy percentage by using alternative technologies, such as photovoltaic, wind and solar.



“The government is taking this issue extremely seriously and we are commissioning the scientific community to conduct research concerning the economic and environmental implications of these changes in Cyprus. This needs to be done as soon as possible.”



Early adoption by Council and Parliament of the European Commission’s legislative proposals on climate change can help to ensure the EU meets its Kyoto Protocol targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, European Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas said yesterday. He was speaking ahead of today’s third anniversary of the Protocol’s entry into force.



“The period during which the EU and other industrialised countries must meet our Kyoto emission targets – the 2008-2012 commitment period – started on January 1 this year,” Commissioner Dimas said.



“The most recent emission projections show we are on the right track, but the early adoption and implementation of proposals put forward by the Commission would help to ensure success. I am referring to legislation to reduce CO2 emissions from cars and fuels and the inclusion of aviation in the Emissions Trading System from 2011. Swift action on last month's climate action and renewable energy package will also give us an early start towards meeting our ambitious targets for 2020.”









Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2008

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/18/2008 9:53:0

Thanks Sue,

Thats the one,and thank you for taking the time out to type it,very worrying dont you think,

Paul.

Bradus


Joined: 2/25/2007
Posts: 754


Message Posted:
2/18/2008 10:09:

I think it is very disturbing. Whats more there are many statistics to support the arguement. Each year Cyprus's rainfall gets less and less and last year was one of the hottest on record. They can hardly cope with the water shortage now, goodness knows what it will be like in a few years time. Looking on the bright side however, it will become an all year round destination (for non swimmers and those that don't like beaches) I hear that the EU is providing money for the south to create more lakes and desalination plants. There was talk of bringing in piped water from the Turkish mainland to the north. Sounds like they should start digging! Problem with most governments is they tend to be more reactive than proactive, so can't see much being done untill people begin to suffer the effects.

OllieD


Joined: 10/23/2007
Posts: 13


Message Posted:
2/25/2008 3:22:0

Do you think this will happen?



http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/mhojauojojau/

Bradus


Joined: 2/25/2007
Posts: 754


Message Posted:
2/25/2008 6:20:0

Ollie,



I think its jumping the gun. Its far too early to see what will happen and if this is just based on "election speech". It would take years to draft a settlement, possibly put it to the vote and then the hardest part implement it. Any agreement would most likely be implemented stage by stage. With this in mind 2008 seems totally unrealistic. Hopefully what they will achieve in 2008 is more dialogue between the GC, and TC government and the united nations.

pilgrim



Joined: 5/11/2007
Posts: 717


Message Posted:
2/25/2008 7:19:0

Bradus, succinct as usual.

regards

p

dodger



Joined: 7/29/2007
Posts: 1227


Message Posted:
2/25/2008 8:08:0

Totally agree Sue,

Dont forget there could well be a lot of broken promises to come now they have been elected.Step by step has to be the strategy,perhaps the opening of another crossing point would be seen as a gesture.and then talks on direct flights.All these things will take time,but as long as both sides are talking its a start.

Regards,

Paul.

Bradus


Joined: 2/25/2007
Posts: 754


Message Posted:
2/25/2008 9:19:0