Investing in the YTL

lovingcyprus


Joined: 02/03/2007
Posts: 1272

Message Posted:
30/03/2008 17:43

Take extreme care, do not put all your savings into the YTL just because of the high rates of interest you can get.



It is widely expected that there there will be a significant devaluation in that currency as it is considerably overvalued.

lovingcyprus


Joined: 02/03/2007
Posts: 1272

Message Posted:
30/03/2008 22:54

No one got any comments on this?????????????

pilgrim



Joined: 11/05/2007
Posts: 1404

Message Posted:
30/03/2008 23:13

Yes me, thanks bringing money to invest second thoughts now.

lovingcyprus


Joined: 02/03/2007
Posts: 1272

Message Posted:
30/03/2008 23:58

pilgrim



Remember this when investing do not put all your eggs in one basket, that is a sure fire way to lose money.



Take a look at the following:-



http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory



Go back to the beginning of 2006 up til now and you can see how the YTL have varied, I am pretty sure it will devalue soon.

pilgrim



Joined: 11/05/2007
Posts: 1404

Message Posted:
31/03/2008 00:59

thanks, was thinking of 5k for 30days

Pipie


Joined: 05/01/2008
Posts: 5499

Message Posted:
31/03/2008 01:52

Any idea what the devaluation will be ?

ukturk



Joined: 01/09/2007
Posts: 1974

Message Posted:
31/03/2008 11:11

hi guys

to tell you the truth, i would not worry to much on losing money because the up side to the lira devalueing like me i changed my sterling into lira when it was touching on to nearly 3lira to the pound so if it ever was to go down i would make a whole load of money changing back to sterling you do the maths if you change for example 100k in to lira at 3 lira to the pound you will recive 300000ytl if the pound goes down 2lira your intial 100k will then become 150k!!!! - 200000ytl = 100k then you got a extra 100000ytl which converts into 50k

pilgrim i would not worry mate as long as you change your money at the highest possiable rate you will be ok at the moment i think its around 2.5lira to the pound so if it does go down you will make money

and at the end of the day if you live in cyprus or turkey why would you not have lira thats the currancey of the country you are living in

regards to all

ukturk

paul90


Joined: 07/11/2007
Posts: 350

Message Posted:
31/03/2008 11:17

The Turkish Lira has devalued by 20% since January 2008 - against the Euro.



And 14% against the US $.



The only reason it hasn't fallen against the UK £ is that Sterling has devalued by 14% against the Euro in the last six months. This has been somewhat unexpected.

It is thought that the £ will not recover by much more than 5% this year.

We should have gone into the Euro back in 2001 - some people say that the current low value of the £ has been "manipulated" to that we can go in soon at a lower level.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
31/03/2008 16:22

The legal action against the AK party is impacting the lira, as well as the general maket.



How's that looking Erkan? That would be unbelievable if Gul was banned from politics - that's how I read it. Is this an over reaction to the AK party? Do they really have a very strong Islamic agenda?

lovingcyprus


Joined: 02/03/2007
Posts: 1272

Message Posted:
31/03/2008 16:52

On 1 January 2008 you got 2.33510 YTL to the £ today you get 2.60480 YTL to the £ that is a devaluation of nearly 15% and there is more to come.



The YTL will not strengthen at least not for a long time and it certainly won't go back to 2YTL to the £ .



If like ukturk you changed £ into YTL and got 3YTL to the £ yes you have made quite a lot but now is the time to change back into £ or even Euros.

paul90


Joined: 07/11/2007
Posts: 350

Message Posted:
31/03/2008 17:07

Between June 2006 and October 2007 the average was £1 = 2.7 YTL

see

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&btn=updatecharts&elists=1%7C3%7C7&elists=1%7C3%7C7&email=Enter+Your+Email+Address+Here&curcode1=GBP&curcode2=TRY&updatecharts=GET+QUOTE&symbol=FX%5EGBPEUR



but then the YTL strengthened to 2.33 in January.

However with the £ weakening against the Euro since January we are now back up to about 2.60 YTL.

It is the strength of the Euro against the £ that is the major factor here.

ukturk



Joined: 01/09/2007
Posts: 1974

Message Posted:
31/03/2008 17:09

hi mark

its not looking to good the court issued a statement saying they will hear the case on a ban of the ak party and members which include both president and prime minister gul and erdogan, they have been accused that the ak party which is a islamic party in trying to change turkey from a secular country into a religion governed country and the court has the power to ban any party in trying to do this for up to 5 years, so the case will be held a month later by law the party has that month to prepare their defence and what got the ball rolling was when the government lifted the ban on the headscarf being worn in uni's, if this ban does come to head then the ruling party will reform under a new banner and new leader, but i think will seriousley dent turkey assertion into europe aswell their relations with other countries they have built over the years and not forgetting the cyprus situation, i also think this is quite sad because even thou the ak party is a very religious party it is giving their countrymen and women their own freedom of speach and action and turkey has come a long way since the ak party has been in power both nationally and internationally and this should not even be going to court this should be done like any other country discussed in parliment and then put to a ballot

regards

ukturk

lovingcyprus


Joined: 02/03/2007
Posts: 1272

Message Posted:
31/03/2008 17:17

paul90



The average rate is meaningless if you went into YTL at say 2.4 to the £ and it is now 2.60 the simple fact is you have less in £ terms.



You will/may have some interest added to your capital

paul90


Joined: 07/11/2007
Posts: 350

Message Posted:
31/03/2008 17:37

Peter - your statement is correct, of course.

The main point to keep in mind is to be very careful if you want to consider investing large sums for short term gains.

In the last three months of 2007 the YTL rose by 11% against the £.

In the first three months of 2008 the YTL fell bt 11% against the £.



http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&btn=updatecharts&elists=1%7C3%7C7&elists=1%7C3%7C7&email=Enter+Your+Email+Address+Here&curcode1=GBP&curcode2=TRY&updatecharts=GET+QUOTE&symbol=FX%5EGBPEUR



Since Septmebr 2007 the YTL has only fallen (by 24%) against the Euro.



http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&btn=updatecharts&elists=1%7C3%7C7&elists=1%7C3%7C7&email=Enter+Your+Email+Address+Here&curcode1=EUR&curcode2=TRY&updatecharts=GET+QUOTE&symbol=FX%5EGBPTRY

ukturk



Joined: 01/09/2007
Posts: 1974

Message Posted:
31/03/2008 17:41

hi guys

it swings in roundabouts you could change sterling into lira when it was 2.60 and it is now 2.40 so you would have more in pound terms and on top of that you would have earned on your capital

and in all my years of living in turkey the lira has been the most stable over the last 2-3 years and the lowest it has even been in the last 8 years is 2lira and the average rate has a meaning because the lira has been stable especially against the euro-pound and the dollar for a long time, so as long as you dont change your sterling at a low rate you will not loose out i.e end of the summer season last year when it went down to 2.20

regards

ukturk

p.s it wont make that much of a diffrence for people who live in cyprus because all they use is lira

lovingcyprus


Joined: 02/03/2007
Posts: 1272

Message Posted:
31/03/2008 18:15

pilgrim



I would hold fire for a few months before investing in the YTL

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
31/03/2008 20:32

Hi Erkan



Thanks for that info. Hope the country doesn't head for a violent split. Speculation about the outcome of the court case must be putting pressure on the lira. The 2.20 that you mention could act like a support line, stopping it from falling below this.

People could make money placing a 'put' on the lira falling

lovingcyprus


Joined: 02/03/2007
Posts: 1272

Message Posted:
31/03/2008 23:23

Since 1 January 2008 you get 15% more YTL for each £



You will not see the YTL at 2.20 to the £ again, it will more than likely end up at 3.2 to the £ or even worse, just keep watching it.

paul90


Joined: 07/11/2007
Posts: 350

Message Posted:
21/05/2008 10:15

Since the last message the YTL has gone from 2.63 in April to 2.40 earlier this week - it has strengthened against the £ by 8%.

It has also strengthened against the Euro by 9% and against the £ by 7%.



UKturk and lovingcyprus - do we know why this is?

The general feeling above was for further weakening rather than strengthening.

ukturk



Joined: 01/09/2007
Posts: 1974

Message Posted:
21/05/2008 14:33

hi paul

like i have always said the lira will stabalise at around 2.40 to 2.50, this is what the turkish central bank has been aiming for, this is also got to do with the uncetainity on whats going on policticaly here in turkey and i have always maintained this and had a beer bet with lovingcyprus that it wont weaken

now if you changed a load of money from sterling to lira at 2.63 and now its 2.40 you have instantly made money nearly £10 on every £100 you have changed which is a good thing dont you think!!!!

regards

ukturk