If Unity talks delayed-then Plan B operates

Geejay


Joined: 18/04/2009
Posts: 475

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 09:01

Cyprus Star newpaper reports that the UN will effect an interim unity plan "B" if the talks between the presidents is unlikely to produce a result by the end this year. This will upgrade the status of North Cyprus to include recognition of the TRNC as a state with political equality and subsequent direct trading with other countries.



In effect this will result in a "Taiwanisation of Northern Cyprus". Presumably this will also include allowing direct non-stop flights to and from Ercan Airport.



This is described as Plan A - Turks Win. Plan B Greeks Lose.

negativenick


Joined: 10/11/2008
Posts: 6023

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 09:04

i'll hold my breath then....

Geejay


Joined: 18/04/2009
Posts: 475

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 09:25

Good idea Nick. Keep it held !

Carndi


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 613

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 10:11

With the Anan plan the Greek Cypriots were given their reward ( EU Membership ) before the vote and now it's the turn of the Tutkish Cypriots who are in a win win situation.

If true then I can see this government taking a stronger line with the talks.

cypwine


Joined: 09/05/2009
Posts: 177

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 10:47

msg 1, is there a link to this article you read plz, also you say "Turks win, Greeks lose" where do Cypriots fit into your statement??



Msg 5

Are you not aware that the ALL cyprriots are members of the EU! why do you think the TCs come to the south to get there ID cards etc!!!

AnthonySmith


Joined: 14/05/2009
Posts: 455

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 11:07

Old news, old speculation. Just a view. Have we not heard it all before?

Annan Plan - if we don't succeed we will still be recognised, trade will open, we will be members of the EU...remember that?!

Geejay


Joined: 18/04/2009
Posts: 475

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 13:08

AnthonySmith......This is not "old news". No mention of "Plan B" has previously appeared in the papers here. You live in Lapta so you should know this ! Why don't you go and read the paper.

The Cyprus Star article was quoting recent Greek Cypriot newspaper reports.



cypwine.....Don't get on my case. This was not my terminology I was quoting from the newspaper. Aren't you aware that the "aquis communitaire" is suspended in the North ?. And Turkish Cypriots don't believe that the north is in the EU.

cronos


Joined: 26/10/2008
Posts: 2093

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 13:18

Don't rise to the bait Geejay......cypwine is just trying to muddy the waters again with pedantry and technicalities.



Plan B sounds like a good start to me.

elko2



Joined: 24/07/2007
Posts: 4400

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 13:18

Actually there is some truth in this. The Americans have been in favour of raising the status of TRNC to something like Taiwan: no official recognition but full cooperation including direct flights. The Europeans were against this to start with but now they are coming round to it slowly slowly. You know how silent diplomacy works but all the signs are there.



They do not wish to lift the embargoes at the moment because that will result in Turkish Cypriots rejecting any possible deal with the Greek Cypriots. On the other hand they have been convinced of the reluctance of the Greek Cypriot side coming to any reasonable agreement with the Turkish Cypriots. Hence the Europeans as well have began talking about the Taiwan model and now you can see Christofias warning the Greek Cypriots about the recognition of partition if there is no deal. So its all a game of balancing act. My view is that the Taiwan model will be accepted with direct flights and all in return for amercian bases in the

elko2



Joined: 24/07/2007
Posts: 4400

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 13:20

Amercian bases in the north. So heads Americans win, tails the Cypriots lose.



Whatever the next step is, it will not be a final settlement because if there is a final settlement the British Bases will be in question and hence there will never be a final settlement for a very long time.

ismet

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 15:22

cypwine/juliet/suzanne:



your comments are within the only-to-be-expected thread all about plan b



so what, if anything,



may have derailed your impetuous earlier prediction of "75% in the bag"?



at least you weren't "90% sure" like poor old pikey!



sorry to say this but I told you so



andre

AnthonySmith


Joined: 14/05/2009
Posts: 455

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 17:54

Geejay, maybe you should read up on North Cyprus and its place in international politics, rather than take everything one newspaper says as gospel. And by the way, that was cadged from StarKibris, Cyprus Star's Turkish language paper. There is a lot of posturing going on between UBP and Talat. And a lot of unattributable quotes, too.

TRNCVaughan


Joined: 27/04/2008
Posts: 4578

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 18:08

Hi ismet,



Care to expound a bit on your comment about the SBAs?

As I understand it, the SBAs have never been part of RoC, they are effectively a state within a state, so how will they be effected?

Geejay


Joined: 18/04/2009
Posts: 475

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 18:14

AnthonySmith......You really should learn not to shoot the messenger !



If you had read my post properly, I merely reported what I had read in Cyprus Star so that others could comment. Quite clearly you jump at any chance to denigrate others.



Why don't you just read the article instead of commenting from ignorance.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 19:35

guys this is no reason to fall out...

of course there has to be a "plan b" but it is only some stuff in the "star"



like ismet I never believed a settlement is possible with the two sides so entrenched

unlike ismet, this hypothetical eventuality has no clear pluses or minuses for me personally



what is positive is that the two sides have been talking unaided like adults,

what's negative is the cuddling up is a bear hug, serving to emphasise huge antagonisms



without seeing the star report, I'm sure the international community wants to soften the isolations

while at the same time loyally voting to restrict the turkish cypriots:

just as they voted to support the pol pot regime in cambodia for political reasons for too long



in the same way it's expected that russia, turkey's new best friend,

will continue blocking the trnc in public,

while discreetly building relationships which will subvert the efforts of the republic of "cyprus"



welcome to the world of realpolitik!

AnthonySmith


Joined: 14/05/2009
Posts: 455

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 19:59

I have read the offending article. And also the other that suggested last week's fire in the Five Fingers was Thursday. Pinch of salt is all I am saying. Nothing new.

cavlryman998


Joined: 20/08/2009
Posts: 5

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 21:22

What will happen if the un mandate is not renewed this year after all we have had peace here for 35 years surely they are needed elsewhere? The sba bases are not part of greek cyprus, What will happen to the leased vakif land that has somehow had title deeds issued to someone else? Could plan B be annexation? then surely all ports would be open to all and embargoes finished? These are questions and I would invite comment as such.

Jetski


Joined: 21/07/2008
Posts: 584

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 22:33

Don't be silly cavalryman...... the UN will stay all the while the GC's pay for them to stay. Didn't you know that the GC's pay for and stipulate what nations within the UN force can monitor the border?...... many aren't aware of this.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 22:36

terry message 17:



you seek cut and dried answers:

'fraid that is just not on, the future is yet unwritten



a newly-reunited state could push for the removal of the 99 square-mile uk sovereign bases,

if all of cyprus falls under greek cypriot rule or similar: but really, what chance is there of that?



the un will bodge something or other,

they just can't have the two communities taking potshots at each other again



and there's a soft annexation aleady in progress: the increasing turkification of north cyprus

which is bound to increase turkey's committment to the trnc...

yet the other side seems to believe they have the luxury of "all the time in the world" to agree a deal

to me it looks like they missed the compromise boat once and for all, but this is only my opinion



think soft annexation, and think soft erosion of embargoes

the outside world recognizes south cyprus, but doing business with the future trnc is inevitable

cavlryman998


Joined: 20/08/2009
Posts: 5

Message Posted:
29/08/2009 23:16

They may pay towards the upkeep but that will not stop the un pulling out as they must realise they are just a political tool of th south.Do you really think the south will try it on with the turkish army a nato force 2nd biggest next to usa.Do we need the bases with the listening posts in the north at our disposal.soft annexation I don,t think so come the new year a referendum in the north probably an attempt at one in the south and before the new president in the north takes over annexation.

elko2



Joined: 24/07/2007
Posts: 4400

Message Posted:
30/08/2009 00:45

msg 13

Vaughan wrote:

"Care to expound a bit on your comment about the SBAs?



As I understand it, the SBAs have never been part of RoC, they are effectively a state within a state, so how will they be effected?"



Yes these are "Sovereign" areas. In fact the whole of Cyprus was the "Sovereign" area of UK pre 1960 but that did not stop the change. The Greek Cypriots see the whole of Cyprus as theirs and the SBA is no exception. They do not want to agitate too much against the bases because they are afraid of antagonizing the British. The moment the Greek Cypriots do not need the help of the British any longer in the Cyprus dispute they will take up the case of the British Bases in Cyprus.The British know this and hence they will prolonge the Cyprus problem as long as possible. The Annan Plan did not really solve anything. Even if accepted, it could not last for more than a few years and this suited the British very nice as explained above.

ismet

Lilli



Joined: 21/07/2008
Posts: 13081

Message Posted:
30/08/2009 00:50

Im told by a very reliable source that the reason its like this is Turkey wants the army here.Think about the statergy. Elko may put me riight. If all is to beleived tonight a customer told me we will be the next Taiwain/ We wait xxx

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
30/08/2009 10:54

terry message 20,



many expats on cyprus 44 think that an agreement with the south would be a "good thing"

...although others blithley talk about "annexation" by turkey



let's be clear about this:

there's no reason for a referendum anyplace until the two sides to the cyprus dispute

actually agree on a draft settlement: when would you see this very slow train a-comin'?



as regards any formal annexation of the turkish republic of northern cyprus,

the gc's, the greece and the eu leadership (in that I am of course referring to the french)

would go ballistic and don't imagine it would do anything at all to weaken the isolations:



but interesting to see and the other lot could hardly deny they brought it on themselves



andre

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
30/08/2009 12:08

the SBA's would indeed be up for grabs if cyprus was a single state, 2004-style



I can remember there were discreet briefings for journalists prior to the annan referenda

more or less that britain "may well" consider reducing their extent by half pending any renegociation



of course, and without going into detail, they are pretty much vital to britain's american ally

especially akrotiri airbase for staging to the near east (and central asia/caucasus region one day?)

so the uk needs to retain them at all costs, now and in the unknowable future



and if this is unpalatable, suggestions please for an alternative ally to the usa: france/eu? russia? china?



whether or not readers "agree" or "disagree" with surrendering the 1960 cyprus agreement

it genuinely puzzles me why all of this is supposed to be such an "open secret"?



just like greece's lukewarm and capricious membership of "nato" and the roc's non-membership

this is a "geoplitical" factor we only admit to hushed tones

westender


Joined: 14/05/2009
Posts: 328

Message Posted:
30/08/2009 19:29

It was well documented that the UK was prepared to transer 46sq miles of the SBA if the Annan plan was accepted by both sides. Commons papers suggest that for the SBA's to be totally given up would require the consent of the other guarantor powers.

elko2



Joined: 24/07/2007
Posts: 4400

Message Posted:
30/08/2009 23:50

What about the consent of the guarantors before ROC joined EU?

ismet

TRNCVaughan


Joined: 27/04/2008
Posts: 4578

Message Posted:
31/08/2009 14:32

I still don't see how a "reunited" Cyprus could make a claim against the bases. The bases were part of the deal for independance and were agreed upon PRIOR to independance - i.e. when Cyprus was still a colony. The RoC government did not exist when the deal was done and therefore can have no claim to them now. The UK may give up some SBA land as a goodwill gesture/sweetener, but RoC can have no "claim" to them as they never belonged to them.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
31/08/2009 15:42

http://www.cyprus-mail.com/news/main.php?id=47548&cat_id=1



The talks a year on.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
31/08/2009 15:59

http://tyo.ca/islambank.community/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=2763



Looks like Taiwan has been mentioned in the past as well,

Paul.

Lilli



Joined: 21/07/2008
Posts: 13081

Message Posted:
31/08/2009 16:10

very interesting paul xx

Tenakoutou



Joined: 27/07/2009
Posts: 4110

Message Posted:
31/08/2009 20:24

Makarios denied the Yanks their base(s) - so, one wouldn't suppose RoC is very high up on the USA's list of 'pals', still.



Unless Turkey governs this (lawless) place, or invites the Yanks to establish a substantial base here - hence a huge boost to the economy, the future would appear to be a grim prospect. Unfortuneately, those that have already 'lined their pockets' seem to have the most 'say' - but for how much longer?



As Vaughan has stated, quite correctly, SBA's are exactly that: British Soveriegn Areas - i.e. 'territory', complete with their own jurisdiction - nothing to do with RoC, except that they obligingly let GC farmers use their land and, as I was told, not even for a 'peppercorn rent'.



The GC's, recently headed by their 'star agitator', 'Mad Matsakis', hold demonstrations at the Bases from time to time, often causing quite a bit of damage, but this seems to always be shrugged off nonchalantly by the Bases commanders.

cronos


Joined: 26/10/2008
Posts: 2093

Message Posted:
31/08/2009 20:42

Oh come on Pikey that's a bit of a cheap shot.



I'm sure you could pull similar articles off the internet about ANY army in the world.

girne 29


Joined: 06/12/2007
Posts: 1488

Message Posted:
31/08/2009 21:08

Message 33

Yeah

If we were really cheap we could mention Greek National Guard --tutu type skirt , white tights ,nightcap on the head, clogs with pom poms .



Now the person who designed that must have really hated those guys.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
01/09/2009 23:19

http://northcyprus.biz/north_cyprus_FeedRedir.asp?FID=9230



Political comment updated,

Paul.