experiment - solution/no solution

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/05/2008 20:09

There is a theory that large groups of people can make better decisions than any one individual can make, even with very limited information available on that subject. Groups may also be able to predict the outcome of future events (that is, if the resuts are aggrandised) . I thought it might be fun if we predicted the outcome of the current Cyprus talks.



Just a few rules:



*Decide your answer to the question based on what you think is going to happen not what you want to happen.

*Do not be influenced by other peoples decisions. Make your own decision, So do not look to see what other people have scored. Only look after you have entered your result.

*Do not worry if you know very little about the negotiations. This does not matter. In fact the less you know the better.

*Do not worry about your understanding about the difference between what unitary or bi zonal means. Apparently, this will not matter. Go with your intuition about what they mean



Here is the multiple choice question. In your post write either a, b or c. The question is:



What do you think will be the outcome of the current negotiations in Cyprus?



a) No solution will be reached

b) A solution will be reached - Two states (Bi zonal, Bi communal)

c) A solution will be reached - One state of Cyprus (unitary)



Remember it is what you think will happen, not what you want to happen. Everyones opinion is valid. It doesn't matter if you do not think you know the situation well. Just answer. Your opinion counts in this process.



Obviously, the more people who vote the better, including GC's and even people who have no interest in Cyprus



As a bit more fun, I thought we could answer a few more questions.

If you answered a - 'No solution' then please indicate one of the three additional statements:



2a) The TRNC will be recognised in 2008

2b) The TRNC will be recognised after 2008

2c) The TRNC will never be recognised

Again, answer by what you think will happen, not what you want





If you answerd b or c in the original question then choose one statement from each area



3a) All Turkish troops will be removed from the island

3b) A small contingency of Turkish troops will remain on the island

3c) A large contingency of Turksih troops will remain on the island





4a) All Turkish settlers will be sent back to Turkey

4b) No Turkish settlers will be sent back to Turkey

4c) Only some of the more recent Turkish settlers will be sent back to Turkey



5a) Foreigners with Esdeger and TMD land will keep their properties and pay no compensation

5b) Foreigners with Esdeger and TMD land will keep their properties but pay compensation

5c) All foreigners with Esdeger and TMD land will lose their properties

5d) Some foreigners with Esdeger and TMD land will lose their properties but will be offered alternatives

5e) Some foreigners with Esdeger and TMD land will lose their properties and will not be offered alternatives



Again, remember to answer based on what you think, not what you want.



It will be interesting to see how we get on.



ps I apologise, in some ways for the construction of the questions. I know there will be people in the forum who could have created this better than I have. I also realise that their could have been many more questions. I apologise if your question has not been added.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/05/2008 20:12

My answers



b - a solution will be reached - bi zonal



Additional answers



3b

4c

5b

ive@karsiyaka



Joined: 24/02/2008
Posts: 169

Message Posted:
10/05/2008 21:29

Hi I love Cyprus,



I think answer c but maybe not this year.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
10/05/2008 22:32

Nice one Mark hope you are well.The answers from the beautiful city of Hull are.



A bizonal solution will be reached.

trnc will be recognised after 2008

A small contingency of troops will remain on the island.



No settlers will be sent back

foreigners with esdegar and tmd will keep land but pay compensation



And that concludes the voting from the east of hull.Great idea Mark hope you receive a big response,

Regards,

Paul.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
10/05/2008 22:33

Izzet can we keep this at the top,

Paul.

wynyardman



Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 4580

Message Posted:
10/05/2008 23:40

Good posting ilovecyprus,



b..........



3b

4b

5b



That concludes the voting on behalf of "the black pudding party.



wyn

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
10/05/2008 23:49

John,

Will you export the black puddings to southern cyprus ata a cost or charge them the same price,

Paul.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
11/05/2008 12:37

Hi Paul



I am good mate. Hope you are too



Looks like there are not many people interested in the subject of reunification and it's consequences.



Mark

marik


Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 88

Message Posted:
11/05/2008 13:21

the voting of the Esentepe TBR jury as follows

B

2B

3C

4B

5D

That concludes the voting of the TBR jury

lovelife


Joined: 07/07/2007
Posts: 231

Message Posted:
11/05/2008 14:24

b

2b

3b

4b

5b



Julie.

simbas



Joined: 16/07/2007
Posts: 5943

Message Posted:
11/05/2008 14:45

hi ilc , the results from the tring area are as follows

b

3-b

4-b

5-e

take care

wynyardman



Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 4580

Message Posted:
11/05/2008 20:21

newlad,



Re sale of Black Pudding to the south. I really don't know much about the south. It all

sounds greek to me! I would be prepared to provide the leaders with small portions, if it would help to solve the Cyprus problem. Look what it did for the United States of the Black Country.!



wyn

brandy sour


Joined: 09/04/2008
Posts: 310

Message Posted:
11/05/2008 20:53

I just want my apartment finish so we can enjoy before we get to old have to install a stair lift to get to it.

wynyardman



Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 4580

Message Posted:
11/05/2008 21:02

hi brandy sour,



I have started believing in reincarnation to make sure that I see the family taking posession of our villa.



wyn

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
11/05/2008 21:15

Come on guys show some interest,

Regards,

Paul.

brandy sour


Joined: 09/04/2008
Posts: 310

Message Posted:
11/05/2008 21:19

Good one wyn we go out in june hopefully we don't come back fed up as we where in march.

billybob


Joined: 29/03/2008
Posts: 576

Message Posted:
12/05/2008 09:02

My votes to follow

b

2b

3b

4b

5b

Jo Valentine


Joined: 10/02/2008
Posts: 508

Message Posted:
13/05/2008 00:48

Good question.

I cannot answer questions 1 and 3-5 until question 2 has an answer. Without recognition, North Cyprus is entering negotiations as the underdog with the South thinking they just have to toss a bone to keep the North quiet.

Surely International recognition must come first?

If not, my vote has to be:

1) a

2) b

and 3,4 and 5 unchanged

Jo

watty


Joined: 04/04/2008
Posts: 77

Message Posted:
14/05/2008 13:41

Getting all confused now is it 2 b or not 2b that is the question.

I think when the big boys US, EU, UK,UN etc get involved we will see a big change in the attitude of the south they will have to start agreeing to some of the changes which need to be made to try and solve the present situation, they can not keep thinking that they have the devine right to have their say and bugger any one else.



It would be a very interesting to hear what some of the normal people in the south think on this subject, and not the hate merchants you see on other forums.



I have friends who have bought there and all they seem to hear is the propergander from the sales Jonnys,who say never buy in the north it.s not safe to put your money there,and the crap they read in the press, which only makes the situation worse.



There will all ways be some people whether Turkish or Greek cypriots who will not agree with a solution of any kind.



We all have to remember the underdog is not allways the loser.

wynyardman



Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 4580

Message Posted:
15/05/2008 11:39

Hi Watty,



Been missing the banter. I think that........



1 Opening Gecitkale Airport to charter flights.

2 The water stuation (pipeline from Turkey)(can't make beer without it)



provide the "gateway" to a solution.



Before I get shouted at, this is the thought of an outsider, whose opinions are not distorted by the emnity held from past experiences. I cast my vote to the question as above.



wynyardman