Looks like Turkey means business

greylag


Joined: 08/04/2009
Posts: 1110

Message Posted:
08/12/2009 11:26

http://www.famagusta-gazette.com/link.asp?twindow=Default&smenu=69&sdetail=9969&mad=No&wpage=&skeyword=&sidate=



Thought you may like a read,

Grey.

TRNCVaughan


Joined: 27/04/2008
Posts: 4578

Message Posted:
08/12/2009 11:41

Very interesting last paragraph:

"The White House meeting was expected to last about 30 minutes, with a luncheon to follow. Instead, the talks lasted roughly two hours - reflecting the broad agenda the two countries share."

With the meeting lasting 4 times as long as expected, I doubt they were chatting about the weather.

Dixie Normus


Joined: 22/02/2008
Posts: 820

Message Posted:
08/12/2009 15:38

We can see Turkey maturing into a major player with its middle eastern influence and certainly appears to be respected for their impartiality and views by the Obama goverment. It may soon emerge that Turkey instead of seeking Europe as a partner will realise that it is better off without the burden of Brussels.Turkey can hold its own within the world economy and the situation can only improve for them. Would like to see the American reciprocate by throwing a life line to the TRNC, that would realy shove it up the bubble n squeeks.



D.N



D.N

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
08/12/2009 17:25

Dixie,

The E.U. are gagging for Turkey to join their club,but i think that the American intervention is just around the corner,

Paul.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
08/12/2009 20:06

newlad message 4:



where on earth did you hear that the eu is "gagging" for turkey to join?



in a famous interview two years ago the french president decided it was "inappropriate"



angela merkel's germany agrees



now the eu has appointed it's first president, a belgian famous for his anti-turkey stance



...and that is that

MUSIN M


Joined: 26/06/2008
Posts: 1352

Message Posted:
08/12/2009 20:18

turkey is not stupid it knows that she will never be allowed to become a full member.



the question is ,does she really care ,the larger the eu becomes the more complex and more

costly .



musin



long live the kktc

satranc


Joined: 04/04/2009
Posts: 92

Message Posted:
08/12/2009 20:37

If you can, watch the recent Stephen Sacker interview in Brussells with Egemen Bağıs Turkish Minister for EU Affairs. There is a link from Lilil's original thread. A very good and thought provoking twenty minutes or so "Hard Talk" interview on BBC World.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
08/12/2009 20:38

Andre,

Of course they are gagging didnt say all the member states and agree with you about France and Rumpole of the bailey.But the vast majority of the E.U. know that it would make sense to have Turkey on board,

Paul.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
08/12/2009 20:43

this is speculative since as the song goes "the future is yet to be written"

but turkey's future relationships could well include:



maintaining the peace committment to cyprus as long as the isolations persist,

remaining inside the us/nato orbit, perhaps as a more critical member in future

maintaining trade links with the eu/free trade agreement exactly as of now

and (gulp!) building its relations with iran and russia...



try as I might, I do not see eu membership in that list

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
08/12/2009 20:51

Andre,

Totally agree with you matey.Even though i think that the E.U. are gagging for Turkey i dont for one minute think that Turkey are gagging for them and will go it alone,with assistance from Obama and his merry people,

Paul.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
08/12/2009 21:39

yes paul but the usa has several times "asked" the eu to admit turkey,

even israel has once, don't larf



this is going to sound patronising but some of the less well-off states

have really made a fortune from eu membership

I'm thinking of pre-crisis greece and ireland, portugal and poland slovenia etc

...and even italy way back in the 1960's



for britain though, membership now looks to have been pretty disasterous

but paradoxically if the uk were to pull out now it would entail very big sacrifices



I'm certain turkey will have a brilliant future whatever,

even though some of its new partners may not be the west's first choice

kaiserphil


Joined: 14/12/2008
Posts: 1096

Message Posted:
08/12/2009 22:22

Message 8 - Newlad - trust me, the last thing Germany wants is more Turks!

Where did you get that idea from?

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
09/12/2009 02:05

the question is,

where do these myths really come from?



"turkish membership of the eu"

my best guesses are this nonsense partly stems from fair-minded intuition not cold facts,

and partly from south cypriot fantasies of using it as an inducement to prise turkey off the island



"a cyprus reunification agreement"

again, trying far too hard to apply logic and goodwill to an intractible middle eastern dispute

but also being misled by one or two politicians touting their hopes to resolve the irresolvable



but what would I like to see?

if asked, to see turkey in a reformed eu without abandoning its support of cyprus,

and the island able to live and let live with two free peoples



but then again, nobody did ask me since it is really not for the likes of me to decide

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 15:11

considering the reams of idealistic stuff choking cyprus 44

about "turkish membership" of the eu and "reunification of cyprus"

I am disappointed nobody commented on my message 13 above

...or am I as one well-known member has suggested "confused"?

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 17:05

Andre "confused" no not at all.I just think that you are missunderstanding what i am trying to get across.I dont for one minute think that Turkey will become a full member of the E.U. anyway,why would they want to join a sinking ship.Turkeys economy is growing more than can be said for most other E.U. states.The point that i am trying to make is that the E.U. need Turkey more then Turkey need the E.U. I want to see a two state solution,



Paul.

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 17:34

OK some facts:

Quote courtesy of 'Anadolu Ajansi'

(Extracts)

'Turkey's industrial production on the rise.

Turkey's industrial output increased by 6.5 percent in October 2009 year on last and rose 13.7 percent over the previous month. Production was up 5.2 percent in mining and quarrying sector index, 6.6 percent in manufacturing sector and 6.4 percent in electricity, gas and water sector index.'



'US development Agency announces Turkey as country of 2009.

The US Trade and Development Agency has announced the Republic of Turkey as the recipient of its 2009 Country of the Year award'



'Turkey, USA draw strategic framework of economic relations.

Turkish State Minister & Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan, the U.S. Trade representative Ron Kirk and U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke held a press conference on a new framework mechanism between the two countries in Washington DC'



Now who needs Turkey?

AJ

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 17:40

Exactly A.J.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 19:27

well I am confused, paul



firstly you ask "why would they want to join a sinking ship"



but turkey has been desperately trying to join the eu for years

and even modified their internal policies to meet european requirements



the ruling ak party is as keen on the eu as its predecessor,

unless you would argue this is is only a sort of "sham" application to join



the reasons why turkey won't be permitted to join...

well, this relates to grassroots opposition in many states,

north europe fearing turkish neighbours, and competition in a dwindling jobs market

the south more worried about cheap agriculture imports...

while franco-german statesmen forsee turkey plus britain becoming a major voting block



the eu gagging for turkey to join? hardly, though I think it is their loss

turkey would be unwise to join the eu? that is "just" possible

is turkey doomed if it doesn't join? not a bit of it, turkey has great prospects



and they have two "new friends" iran and russia

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 20:19

Andre,

If Turkey where that "desperate" to join the eu i think they would have cleaned their act up years ago.Personally i think that they are stringing the eu along now and have no intention of joining.They are such apowerful nation now and they realise this ,

Paul.

elkiton



Joined: 15/03/2009
Posts: 514

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 21:26

I think that the EU wants to keep Turkey "on-side" because it would be strategically the wise thing to do, a moderate muslim country acting as a border buffer to the more extreme middle east, etc etc

However they the EU are in double bind...one of their own club (the ROC) is trying to use the EU as a "big stock" to beat the TC's back to pre '74, and at long last the EU is waking up to the deviousness of the South in this matter. Also Turkey is so big that it would shift the balance of power which now exists within the top3 EU members, and their hegemony would be toppled.

For Turkey, EU membership represents increased markets and certainly influence, however with a solid economy it is certainly not "essential" to them to join.

What is essential is to play the political game to the last card and then walk off to a new game when it suits you taking your winnings, bit like poker really!

TonyE

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 22:02

tony message 20,



I have always taken this "muslim/middle east" perspective for turkey with a pinch of salt



to put it bluntly most countries to the south are arab

and ottoman turkey was the imperial overlord, making for an uneasy relationship even now



but look just a bit east and iran a powerful 75 million strong glowers at the west,

while the turkish media are waxing friendly descrbing iran as "misunderstood"



the other part of my thesis is that are powerful geopolitical factors also energy politics

powering a turkey/russia rapprochment...who were historic enemies before



the two new friends if indeed they are may prove to be a severe headache for the west



but as I said I cannot see turkey fiddling about with the arab world much ie syria/iraq/egypt

a lot of agro for too little gain, while south cyprus continues to woo them and the palestinians,

turkey continues even now its military excercises and intelligence-sharing with israel

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 22:17

Andre,

Why would Turkey be desperate to join the eu,

Paul.

elkiton



Joined: 15/03/2009
Posts: 514

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 22:22

I don't disagree with you. I think that there is a perception issue in that Turkey is seen in several different lights by the players who each have their own perspective and the Uk is currently "Islamophobic"..associating things like 911 directly with islam, plus we always were and probably will be forever a racist bunch lol.

The talk of making the TRNC a free-trade zone I find particularly interesting, it would be a type of "bourse" where trade between Israel and the Arab world could be conducted through a 3rd party. Might benefit everybody, although I dont think the politicians here have the experience to handle a deal like that, Turkey would do well to drive it.

The next year or so will throw up some strange bedfellows, declining oil reserves especially will be a big chip in the "who loves you" games.

TonyE

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 22:36

Tony,

Whats your thoughts on Northern Cyprus becoming a micro state,

Paul.

Hector


Joined: 26/08/2008
Posts: 2352

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 22:49

Turkey will naturally always place Turkeys interests where they belong, at the top. Can't blame them for that.



They are in many ways 'piggy in the middle' politically & geographically. Only Turkey can decide when the time & invitation comes whether it is in their interests to join the EU. Turkey is a powerful nation, not one to go to war against (as we found out at Galipoli) and not one known to wage war at the drop of a hat. It has a massive army & part of NATO. No walkover to the East or West.



There is no massive financial or political urgency to pressure Turkey into needing to join the EU. They are playing both sides politically,East v West, USA v Iran. Just by saying Iran is 'misunderstood' is enough to up the ante & get an extended 'fireside chat at the White House.'



North Cyprus is a political side issue in some ways. No genocide or such like to cause real political problems or world pressure. Financialy a drain but not big in Turkeys finances. Handy place to keep ones

Hector


Joined: 26/08/2008
Posts: 2352

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 22:53

Handy place to keep ones army.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 23:07

They (Turkey) certainly seem to be in the box seat.Being courted by Iran Russia and the U.S.A. in no particular order,

Paul.

elkiton



Joined: 15/03/2009
Posts: 514

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 23:08

You know Paul, I have asked myself the question about why the TRNC is still in limbo and being funded by Turkey after all these years. The TRNC is without doubt a political pawn in the chessmatch between the EU, ROC, Turkey and Greece. The future of the North in my opinion lies not with the ROC and their devious machinations, I personally think they (the South) are now irrelevant; nor with any ability of the TRNC to do "self governance" as it has not the resources or the markets; but soley with what Turkey has in mind for the North.

When you fully fund a country that is in effect "a nusiance" of your making, then you are in charge of the game, and the game might be as simple as being a thorn in the side of another country for which E300M is not a high price to pay for a right royal wind up lol

The TRNC is a bit like chewing gum, it will end up stuck to somebody's shoe whether they want it or not.

Yes possibly a microstate, but one that would really be a Turkish satellite.

TonyE

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 23:43

paul,



turkey wants to join the eu for exactly the same reasons as other candidates:



trade

agricultural subsidies

increased influence in the world



to be fair, enthusiasm for the eu has started to wane in turkey

one thing I am certain of, north cyprus is not "negociable" despite a lots of red herrings



the underlying factors for joining the eu just don't seem to be there at all,

however reasponable and logical it may all seem to us!



turkey has been closely tied in with the usa since nato's beginnings fifty years ago



election of the ak has led to some tension between the bosphorus elite

and the devout provincial business people who elected them:

however turkey's kemalist military leadership appears to operate semi-independently

from the to and fro of regular political life



turkey is a great country with a fascinating culture and may be best off out of the eu:

but not sure the eu is sinking... too big a gravy train for that to be allowed to happen

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 23:53

Andre,

This is how i see things panning out,and it is a very simplistic outcome from a very simple person.The talks will dissolve by February with no solution being met.Talat campaigns for the April election.The April election takes place and Talat loses.A referendum takes place and the people of the trnc vote for two states.Watch this space.



Tony E really enjoyed your postings,

Paul.

Magbs


Joined: 26/02/2009
Posts: 278

Message Posted:
10/12/2009 23:55

Andre,



Nice analysis, though when among other geopolitical factors you mention Israel I think you're leaving out some details. Turkey has long been Israel's closest ally in the Muslim world but it seams the honeymoon is over. You said "turkey continues even now its military excercises ... with israel". The fact is last month, Turkey canceled a military exercise in which Israeli pilots were planned to participate. I still believe the basis of the relationship is strong but many in Israel think, especially after Erdogan's anti-Israeli tirades, that Ankara is looking to the east instead.