Goldman Sachs Global Economics - Top trade ideas 2010

willyhoops


Joined: 12/03/2009
Posts: 89

Message Posted:
25/12/2009 11:14

We all know Goldmans are the best and I though I would post a brief summary of thier top trades. I think they are spot on...



Key Features of the Investment Outlook



A benign (above-consensus) global growth outlook, alongside falling CPI inflation and ultralow

US (and G3) real and nominal rates.



More differentiation than the market discount in growth and rate views, with a US growth

deceleration that puts our forecast well below consensus, but above consensus views in the

BRICs and in significant parts of the G10 (Australia, UK, Norway, Sweden) and increased

divergence within Europe – a theme Erik Nielsen and team have been focusing on.



Ongoing concerns about the sustainability of growth in the US, more worries about deflation

than inflation and lingering credit issues in pockets of the market, associated with the high

amortization schedule of corporate securities.

willyhoops


Joined: 12/03/2009
Posts: 89

Message Posted:
25/12/2009 11:17

Risk and liquidity premia which are less extraordinary in the first half of last year but in

many cases still above average. An expectation from our Portfolio Strategy teams of positive

equity returns, but lower than this year and higher in Europe/Asia than in the US.



A continued search for ‘carry’ in credit and beyond given low rates and a more balanced

macro outlook but with more differentiation across issuers as blanket policy stimulus is

removed.



Continued cyclical Dollar weakness for most of the year, alongside a view of positive, but

not extraordinary, commodity returns.



------------------------------------------------------



To translate that for you a bit... ultra low rates and loose fiscal policy to last all 2010. As a result growth to improve and things to get better. But more differences between growth in individual countries to be than even the market is predicting. Eg China on a Roll, Us slow, Some EU good, some not

eager


Joined: 23/02/2007
Posts: 1272

Message Posted:
25/12/2009 11:17

Err,,,,,What does that mean in English for heavens sake !!

willyhoops


Joined: 12/03/2009
Posts: 89

Message Posted:
25/12/2009 11:26

Trades Ideas now:



(1) Short S&P 500 Index Volatility. This means a lot of risk is priced in for 2010 - the market expects stocks to be more volatile than GS thinks they will be.



(2) Buy Russian Stock Market. They want to be long stocks and pick russia as thier favorite undervalued play. Just $RTX futures



(3) Long GBP short NZD. They are bullish the pound. Interesting becuase all the journalists over at the Financial Times are thwing the towel in on the pound. But GS say We are considerably more bullish on Sterling, linked to stronger cyclical momentum in response to a large easing in financial conditions. At the same time we expect rates to rise a lot more slowly in New Zealand than the consensus.



(4) too complicated..





(5) Interest rates in Turkey will rise. The market is expecting them to be far to low in 2 years time.



(6) too complicated



(7) too complicated



(8) too complicated



anyway i though it might be of interest

winslow


Joined: 09/04/2009
Posts: 332

Message Posted:
25/12/2009 12:06

Msg Willyhoops

Don't you think that GS want this view to been seen as correct this is their own economical prespective. They have probably taken positions on behalf of themselves and investors. As to your comment about the best if that was the case they never predicted the recent crisis....they are good... but not right all the time..

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
25/12/2009 12:17

Goldman the best!! What a joke. They are the destroyers and what is wrong with the world. Straight to hell with them. They are as hated in the U.S as well as all over the globe.

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
25/12/2009 12:20

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x9vy91_max-keiser-takes-offense-to-goldman_news



This guy has it right!

winslow


Joined: 09/04/2009
Posts: 332

Message Posted:
25/12/2009 12:37

İ would also say that Paulson who was former GS stuck the Knife in Lemans due to their intense rivalry. When he could of saved them and alot of the panic that insued causing the meltdown and this crisis could have been avoided. İ am one for competition on an equal footing but having your own man in the treasury at the time was detrimental beyond the pale and gave GS an unfair advantage over the rest. İt caused thousands nothing but missery they were selling CDOs just like everyone else on wall street and pocketing millions in commisions. They were in cohets with the rating agencies and it was left to taxpayers bail out the banking system.

Winslow

SpongeBob


Joined: 22/01/2009
Posts: 7

Message Posted:
27/12/2009 18:20

Corbo Message 7



Excellent he is spot on -) Brillant

LOvegod


Joined: 22/03/2009
Posts: 161

Message Posted:
27/12/2009 19:10

got to be good news that tl int rates are goin up

willyhoops


Joined: 12/03/2009
Posts: 89

Message Posted:
27/12/2009 19:21

Goldman... are the destroyers and what is wrong with the world...



Actually it was Northern Rock and Fannie May not GS that messed up the world. GS saw the crisis coming and hedged against it. They were almost the only one to make a profit in the beginning. Not spot on- dumb.



I forgot to add they are bearish JPY.

Moover321


Joined: 11/04/2009
Posts: 649

Message Posted:
27/12/2009 23:51

Interesting!



So you follow the so called market leader (GS) and you make a packet?



Or should that be...



You follow the market leader (GS) in their predictions - for which they have already taken positions - and THEY make a packet!



Seems a bit circular - if GS is punting for business here seems a little strange!



Willyhoops: Factually it was the Fed Reserve that was the catalyst to this present crisis - Fanny and Freddie simply followed the view that looking the other way was the best way to do business and let's be totally honest - GS made a killing in the early cycle of the near zero interest rates and CDO's i.e. up to 2007 when the market was oversold!



Correct me if I am wrong but didn't this great institution (GS) take 22 billion in bailout money from the tax payer?



Privatise the profits and nationalise the losses - it's the recipe with which GS amongst others have made a killing!



If there was no tax payer bailout - there would be no GS - Simples

Moover321


Joined: 11/04/2009
Posts: 649

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 00:12

*Correction:



GS took $10 Billion under TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Programme) and additionally, in the fall of 2008, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. enabled Goldman to generate $29 billion in cash by issuing FDIC insured debts through the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program



....and then paid out $10.9 Billion in 'compensation' (bonuses to you and me)



Seems like the best way to make money is to become so big and powerful that no government will allow you to fail and then you can do as you please and nobody, but nobody can say anything to you!



That is not a competitive business environment - it is a monopoly based on blackmail and abuse of power



Of course it helps when you also give substantial funds to those running for elections and when your former head is (was) leading the US Treasury



Or perhaps should we just keep quiet as GS is really God's Special Company (Unlimited) lol

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 07:56

Thanks Spongebob..and some call me cynical but this media gloss on the situation and the politicians spin put on everything won't actually make the good times happen. That will take sound hard decisions. Some drastic ones and I cannot see the current lot doing this.

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 08:09

Message 13..Moover321..spot on.

Moover321


Joined: 11/04/2009
Posts: 649

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 13:44

Thanks Corbo We just need people to start looking at why we allow these 'thieves' to get away with it?



Maybe the old adage: "Steal a little and they throw you in jail, steal a lot and they make you King"

willyhoops


Joined: 12/03/2009
Posts: 89

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 13:48

When the mortgage business went pear shaped the entire banking industry began to unravel. As a result even though GS make money on their short mortgage derivatives bets they were overwhelmed with every counterparty risk going pearshaped. So yea they needed to take a little money which they repaid quickly. But the idea that they were at the heart of the crisis is nonsense - it came out of Fannie and Freddie and companies that prime brokered mortgage derivate funds and out of rubbishy retail banks like Northen Rock. GS are without doubt the smartest kinds on the block and we can see that in their spectacular share price recovery.



Of course GS get on board before they circulate to clients. But that doe not mean the advice is bad. I think it is a superb analysis and sobering in a world of doom and gloom talk. It has nothing to do with media gloss or politicians talking up the world- this is trading advice.

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 14:05

Yeah yeah..we'll soon see and if in a year or so things still look better I'll be surprised and say maybe I was wrong. I am wrong on many things. I just wish some of these people that always talk things up mostly for their own good could admit to being wrong at times. I don't see the end of the world but I see a lot of economic catastrophe ahead. US and UK currently run Ponzi scheme economies perpetuated by a whole army of financial terrorists and casino bankers. The thing has gone so far down the road that to slowly stop and charge track to a feasible steady growth build on solid foundations would take major political decisions which no one appears to have the balls to put into action. I'm sure it's a good time for the shrewd to make some quick bucks and good luck but many will be burnt too.

lovingcyprus


Joined: 02/03/2007
Posts: 1272

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 14:18

Goldman Sucks

Moover321


Joined: 11/04/2009
Posts: 649

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 14:22

Willyhoops:



No one said that GS was the cause - it was clearly a major player in the CDO's just go back and look at what 'bets' they took from 2003-07



It is not that they are smart - I know a few of them who work there - we studied together - they just have a market presence and a lot of political support which makes a mockery of the so called 'Chineese Wall' regarding insider trading!



You yet again reiterate INCORRECTLY that the problem was caused by Fannie and Freddie - it WAS CAUSED BY ALAN GREENSPAN and the Fed's policy. Even he admitted that to Congress! You have self-interest in pushing GS - mb you are fully invested there! But this market is not as predictable as your outline suggests.



There are more gremlins in the commercial property sector which will sober the market in 2010



Since when has anyone been able to differentiate 'trading' from politics? Seems like you are living in the surreal world of GS - the two are linked ask any GS analyst lol

Moover321


Joined: 11/04/2009
Posts: 649

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 14:26

Willyhoops:



You also don't deal with the fact that GS position is primarily due to its link to the political world in the USA than with astute trading!



It's easy to make money when you have an inside track isn't it? But that ethical and may even be illegal but who will take on the 'Masters of the Universe'?



Certainly not the weak politicians who look to the likes of GS to fund their campaigns.



So is it true if you steal a little they throw you in jail and if you steal alot you become GS (King)?



What's your interest in promoting GS? Mb you should be open and declare why you want people to invest with GS?

willyhoops


Joined: 12/03/2009
Posts: 89

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 16:45

Corbo - GS is not saying the golden age of strong growth is not over- they are just saying in 2010 fiscal and monetary polic is set to remain very growth positive and for next year things consequently look ok. the problems you talk about are distant, good trading is all about timing. also the problems you talk about are concentrated in the west- you are missing the fact that the emerging world is finnaly pulling ahead and billions of new consumers will contribute to growth ahead.



Moover321 - Alan Greenspan contributed to the problems by keeping rates to low. So did China by lending the US too much money. But irresponsible mortgages was the cause of the crisis. I think your comments about GS only getting inside info are nonsense. It is the mostly highly paid place in banking and they have the best talent.



My interest is not promoting GS. I just listed thier top trade ideas which i though people would find interesting and which i think are very cool. You can't invest with GS anyway

willyhoops


Joined: 12/03/2009
Posts: 89

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 16:49

My interest is not promoting GS. You can't invest with GS anyway. I just listed thier top trade ideas which i though people would find interesting and which i think are very cool. They are the top firm and these are their top ideas out of Global trading. Logical people with an interest in markets would find this info interesting.



Instead of thinking about what they said all everyone has done is wobble on about how evil GS is. Proper daily mail conversation and a lot of nonsense.

Moover321


Joined: 11/04/2009
Posts: 649

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 17:10

Willyhoops:



Really - can't invest in GS - You seem a little distracted - you can buy GS shares - that is in anyone's book a form of investment!



Alan Greespan "only" contributed? Really? He sets the rules by which Investment banks are regulated. The light touch approach was his and his alone which ignited the CDO's and mortgage market - please don't rewrite history!



You really need to get your facts correct. For someone who is in the 'know' about GS - you should know that many of their directors and ex-employees work for the Federal Reserve! Like the right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing!



I am NOT a Daily Mail reader - and even if I was, what the 'Master's of the Universe' or should that be 'Moster's of the Universe' have done to the world economy is unforgivable.



People who would find this information interesting are those who have already made their trades (bets) and now want the 'lesser' mortals to follow so they can get ripped off Nice try

Moover321


Joined: 11/04/2009
Posts: 649

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 17:18

Willyhoops:



If logical people can follow the trades you have listed without any political background I'll eat my proverbial hat!



Investment is an art and NOT a science - ask any real investors and they will tell you the same.



The point I was making is wider than just the interest of the investor. It is about the value that company's like GS actually add to the real economy. If someone is peddling GS on a forum the least they should do is to get their facts correct and understand that not everyone will put making a 'buck' above saving the wider economy.



The philosophy of the likes of GS is simple: "We take whatever we want, whenever we want - we make money when the markets rise or fall and we take the risks and want the tax payer to bail us out when we fail and we take on the best talent that enables us to do so" or more simply "as long as we make money we don't care who or what we f**k"



You may not have a ethical perspective but many of us do

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 17:20

Yes, I'm sure some of the Asian economies will do well now. Many of the big US players are moving there now. They see US and UK as dying economic powers. Don't know much about it really. I'm sticking with Gold. That is putting my money where my mouth is as most of us who buy gold have little or no faith in most fiat currencies or in many of the markets or the politicians and economists who are wrecking economies with nuclear like fiscal policies. Short termism and the next few generations to pay for it all.

willyhoops


Joined: 12/03/2009
Posts: 89

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 17:34

Warren Buffet one said he could never understand why some people dif up gold in one place, ship it to another, and bury it again in a vault. Economic madness.



Gold has done very well but China recently described it as a bubble and it has been going doing ever since. China are the key players in the world and following what they say makes sense. European central banks around the world would probably love to unload all thier gold at this price- but they own vast amounts and it is impossible. I suspet the rally in Gold in over.



I would say you are much better to put your money in Russian Stocks.



Also I think keeping money in pounds not euros may make sense now. Just today we have the story:



Corporate optimism highest in six years



Britain’s business leaders are more optimistic about the UK economy improving than at any point in the past six years, according to an annual survey of captains of industry.



Boxing day shoppers was up 18.6 per cent against Boxing day 2008..

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 17:47

Yes..any increase in Gold is called a bubble by those that never mention the word in relation to the real bubbles in the market place..bubbles were hardly talked of by the so called experts before the crash. Gold will reach $1500 by March and I may sell and then feel silly as it keeps rising. It's all a gamble I suppose. House prices are still in a bubble but you won't see that and will no doubt tell us they will rise next year in the UK.

willyhoops


Joined: 12/03/2009
Posts: 89

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 19:15

From the FT today:



It would of course be ingenuous to assume that the next decade will not bring problems for China, too. Running a society of 1.3bn people with the kind of authoritarian planned capitalism hitherto associated with the city-state Singapore (population 4.5m) is fraught with difficulties. But the fact remains that Asia’s latest and biggest industrial revolution scarcely paused to draw breath during the 2007-09 financial crisis.



And what a revolution! Compare a tenfold growth of gross domestic product in the space of 26 years with a fourfold increase in the space of 70. The former has been China’s achievement between 1978 and 2004; the latter was Britain’s between 1830 and 1900. Or consider the fact that US GDP was more than eight times that of China’s at the beginning of this decade. Now it is barely four times larger – and if the projections from Jim O’Neill, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, prove to be correct, China will overtake America as soon as 2027

winslow


Joined: 09/04/2009
Posts: 332

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 19:17

Willhoopes

You say



'Also I think keeping money in pounds not euros may make sense now. Just today we have the story:

'Britain’s business leaders are more optimistic about the UK economy improving than at any point in the past six years, according to an annual survey of captains of industry'.

Russian commodity stocks maybe but don't over do it very volitile market and not for the faint hearted.

Gold is a hedge against risk and a safe haven commodity and will hold its price while risk prevails.. long gold.



Sterling and british econony Not according to this presspective below.İn my view it would be... go long Sterling.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/6896334/Pound-could-soon-be-worth-less-than-euro-warns-CEBR.html

Winslow

willyhoops


Joined: 12/03/2009
Posts: 89

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 19:20

Leave aside the whole Western World, if China keeps growing like this the net wealth of the world will improve hugely - and with it stocks.



Then I came arcoss an article talking about the lunar eclipse on Dec 31st 2009 a pretty rare event and the excitiment of the Year of The Tiger in China. Tiger is supposed to be a strong growth year, especially for the Tiger economies.



I think we are turing a new page in history and over the next decade we will see monster growth the likes of which are unparalleled since the Roman Empire.

willyhoops


Joined: 12/03/2009
Posts: 89

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 19:25

Lots of people are bearish sterling- that's the consensus. GS is pretty out there being bullish the pound. But there is a lot priced into sterling and a new conservative government coming. I am not really a UK fan but the pound is cheap, the problems of too much borrowing are far away for now, and cheap money will continue for the next year.

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 19:28

Yes..long gold until you run out of cash. I bought in March at the wrong time when Sterling was at a silly price but I'm ahead of the game now and I have no real worries about it. I admit it's highly volatile. What isn't now? Willyhoops you sound like Bloomberg. I watch it and smile. I don't believe most of it but good luck, you are clearly in the business or write about it. We'll get back in a few months and see shall we.

Moover321


Joined: 11/04/2009
Posts: 649

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 19:31

Willyhoops:



The FT is a respected newspaper - but comparing apples with pears in terms of the growth of China relative to the UK os bizzare to say the least.



In absolute terms it should not surprise anyone that China has grown so rapidly - so has technology and that is the difference. Just 'buying' in to that way of thinking is symptomatic of the problem facing the so called developed world.



The key difference between where China is and the developed world is simple - they 'make' things and we speculate with paper.



Buy gold...sell gold...buy this share...sell that share...go long...go short...take a punt on this 'put' or a 'call' on that...syntehetic products with no intrinsic value except for what the 'market' defines i.e. those suited men in the City who pay themselves huge bonusses for screwing up the world economy!



"No doubt" China will be bigger than the USA in terms of GDP by 2027 or soon thereafter - and what? China also has deep politcal risks - and what?

Moover321


Joined: 11/04/2009
Posts: 649

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 19:39

If you want to really make real money - make something or trade in something with intrinsic value.



Any fool can give you a prediction and by the law of averages if one group says up the other down and the third somewhere in between - one group is going to be correct - it doesn't make them clever - just lucky! if you have enough money you can always make money (and that's what they call luck) - it's when you don't have money in the first place that you understand that when all the trees have been chopped down, and the last fish has been caught....and crops will not grow because we have killed the land - you may realise you can have all the money in the world but you cannot eat it!



Enjoy

winslow


Joined: 09/04/2009
Posts: 332

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 19:41

Sorry MSG 30

Should read go short sterling and then long..

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 19:52

'I think we are turing a new page in history and over the next decade we will see monster growth the likes of which are unparalleled since the Roman Empire.' Willy hoops 28th December 2009



This I must keep. Talk about Spin and famous last words; not that I hope they are your last ones but it made me laugh aloud. It is so removed from reality that Roddenberry's Star Trek vision of mankind progressing is far more likely; oddly enough I think that may happen if we get through the next 50 years unscathed but I don't hold much hope for that right now. If this happens it certainly will be without the spivs and financial Mafia boys that you hold in such high esteem. They need to be the first to go.

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 19:57

The City' has created the ultimate FIRE economy in the brave neo-liberal world, predicated upon finance, insurance and real estate. A world dominated and controlled by a utterly exploitative, useless, parasitical cabal of flippers, speculators, spivs and assorted finance racketeers.

As always, the highest price paid by those who can least afford it, easily duped enthusiastic Lativan, Greeks, Irish…. Who embraced the Grand Illusion – that real substantive value can be created out of thin air, merely through speculation - stirred and ‘guided’ by a cabala of corrupt indigenous politicians and bankers, and egged on by a coterie of nauseating apologist cheerleaders, Hannan et. al.

There is little hope that, short of total societal/economic collapse, the great British people will wake up to the true calamity of the greatest asset strip in their history and hold the racketeers and their political functionaries and marionettes to account.

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 19:59

and in predictable fashion, aidde and abetted by corporate mainstream media and an abject, willfully negligent BBC, the debate has once again degenerated into one of personalities - Brown, the City’s golden boy against Cameron, the PR manufactured popinjay…. Yet another exercise in futility directed at obfuscation and disinformation.

Notwithstanding the severity of the situation, the gravy train continues unchecked – taxpayer rescue funds continue to inflate yet another speculative bubble in the city – reported as signs of economic health and a return to normalcy – bonuses in their hundreds of millions flow into the pockets of the spivs and speculators, again at taxpayers’ expense. And the rationale? The need to retain the ‘talent’! Presumably the same talent that has bankrupted the economy while laughing all the way to the bank! A truly macabre charade!

And still the Little Englander mindset moves to deflect responsibility…the Scottish owned RBS and Hong Kong and Shanghai own

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 20:00

HSBO…such is the extend of willful ignorance, delusion. and abject failure to grasp the rudiments of the unfolding demise. Good luck Mr Hoops.

mikemans


Joined: 12/04/2009
Posts: 103

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 20:10

How refreshing to see a good debate on economics and reasonably polite aswell to each other. UK woes are the blame of Nigel Lawson versus George Soros way back when the dollar and the pound battled away and of course the pound lost and the UK never recovered. On that Monday I was in the City and cleaners of offices were going home financially richer than they imagined by just being there, do not blame non UK persons they are only looking after their own nest look closer at our own incompetent chancellors and PM's for the reasons why we are where we are.



The corrupt mortgage fiasco was the real cause of tipping the fragile balance over, crooked salesmen bundled 75% crap mortgages with 25% decent and packaged them to the banks, who failed regularly to carry out due diligence simply because they trusted the supplying source of wholesalers passing the parcel.



Vested interest has kept institutions going and its not the firtst time, in the late 80's the banks were all broke

(continu

mikemans


Joined: 12/04/2009
Posts: 103

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 20:17

due to third world country debts and they meet similar to the G& countries and in the late 80's they voted 49% to 515 to renego on all western debt. If this had nbeen carried then our big 5 at that time would be broke as loans in the balance sheet would no longer be a debt. The Uk government of the day gave them 3 years to get their act together and for those old enough you may well recall that this was the first time when the banks started hitting the retail customer with additional charges for letters and represented cheques etc.



China along with everyone has sen its economy slow down and by some 18% but nthey will be the first to regain a foothold as soon as world economy moves upward and emerging markets will benefit from this particulkarly in the Asian basin. The UK is a spent force as far as manufacturing is concerned and our only role is a financial centre, all we do is shuffle paper and take a mark up from it. The UK will continue to slidedown the scale (continued)

mikemans


Joined: 12/04/2009
Posts: 103

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 20:23

of strong economic countries who shape the world future. Sadly we have no statesmen at this moment in time that offered that something special, all we have is a corrupt bag of mixed individuals from all parties feathering their own nest as the principle aim of being in government rather than altuistic means of serving the peple for the people.



Willyhoops, thanks for the starter for 10 and keep them coming in 2010, I for one will read them enthusistically.



Off tomorrow Tuesday 29th to Hong Kong and cruising the far east from Phillipines, Borneo, Bruni, Vietnam and China, who knows I may well learn and see some of these emerging markets en route. Have a wonderful New Year all readers and may your \God whoever they are watch over you and bring happiness, health and prosperity, with kind regards.



Michael

willyhoops


Joined: 12/03/2009
Posts: 89

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 21:22

The rise of China is one of my favorite topics. It used to be quite unfasionable, most people saw China's growth as headed to a glass ceiling due to thier political system. But now people are beginning to see in China what people though in the 1930s - that the democratic political system is impossible and holds back growth. Of course it went wrong in the 1930s becuase Hiter was a nutcase and Stalin's equality destroyed incentive. But in Sinapore we are seeing an amazing model which China is adopting- and it is delivering on a massive scale. I write a blog at http://www.willyhoops.com which talks about it in detail.

mikemans


Joined: 12/04/2009
Posts: 103

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 22:13

Hi Willy,



Just looked at your blog site and added it to my favourites, very impressive and as a financial adviser I can only welcome any articles that help me to help my clients. Are you a professional journalist or could I ask are you attached to the financial markets in some way, with the weak returns TRNC investors are getting, it would do no harm for investors to at least look and consider what else is possibly on offer and potential returns. My experience with TRNC ex pats is that nearly all live on a fixed income from capital accumulated during their working years in the UK and the thought oif any capital risk scares them big time, yet if they only were aware that fixed income even at TRNC rates leaves some big question marks as to the true rate of return versus inflation in TRNC. Balancing risk reward is always hard once your income ceases and you have no potential to go back to work and earn again.



It is interesting how many expats from around (continued)

mikemans


Joined: 12/04/2009
Posts: 103

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 22:18

are winging their way back to the UK to take advantage of the benefit system, one UK citizen guy I know has a £270K mortgage interest paid for him, gets council tax paid, never paid a NI stamp in his life but gets £149 per week state pension and additionally Pension Credit and free travel on transport for London, his benefit package is nearly £2000 per month and will continue forever, who wants to live in TRNC when goodies like that are available legally through the UK system.



No wonder the country creaks under its financial burden and people like him do not want change so they will re vote Brown & Co back in given the chance.



Michael

willyhoops


Joined: 12/03/2009
Posts: 89

Message Posted:
29/12/2009 00:55

Yea I am a financial markets guy. You can see me here for example: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7109805.stm



Silly article and not with my consent but whatever. I think NC has potential too but it's a difficult one.