Cyprus Talks Doomed?

malsancak


Joined: 23/08/2009
Posts: 2874

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 10:53

"North Cyprus President Mehmet Ali Talat, says that he is concerned that the current round of talks will not be completed before the Presidential elections in the north. He has made it clear that if the talks are not completed before the elections then he will not be standing as a candidate..."

Read more at http://www.northcyprusfreepress.com/2009/12/28/cyprus-talks-doomed/

Brinsley


Joined: 04/04/2009
Posts: 6858

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 11:09

He's got no chance of being re-elected. About time Ismet got his act together and stood!



Richard

deecyprus4


Joined: 27/07/2008
Posts: 3452

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 11:09

When are the elections?

Brinsley


Joined: 04/04/2009
Posts: 6858

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 11:12

April



Richard

Geoff


Joined: 25/06/2008
Posts: 1370

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 11:53

It will all depend on what Turkey wants. Don't write Talat ioff just yet, he is not as daft as some might think!

Geoff

Famagusta

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 13:28

Dont forget there is plan B yet,

Paul.

Moover321


Joined: 11/04/2009
Posts: 649

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 13:38

Seems like too little too late! Yes, much will depend on Turkey and who they back in the 'election'! The jury is still out on that one - as Geoff says, don't just rule him out for the moment!



The GC are happy with their lot.



1. They are in the EU



2. Get support and investment from EU



3. Can take TC to court anywhere in the EU to get compensation and genrally make life hard for the TC's



4. They can "veto" or at least delay the accession talks with Turkey - by lining up with the French / Germans



5. They have effectively curtailed development of TRNC through the embargo and playing around with the UN (Annan Plan)



6. They live in / on the TC houses / land and no that as they have stated their position 'to only pay compensation when there is a settlement' - if no settlement - no payments!



Where's the incentive for the GC to compromise?

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 14:29

Moover,

I take on board what you are saying but at this moment in time Turkey have a lot more allies now then say six months ago.And more and more countries are now seeing the gcs as they really are,

Paul.

malsancak


Joined: 23/08/2009
Posts: 2874

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 14:46

one of the most important moves that point towards Turkey's improved international standing is that some EU countries are starting to talk about given them the same deal south Cyprus was given - no need for the Cyprus Problem to be solved in order for them to enter the EU.

Moover321


Joined: 11/04/2009
Posts: 649

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 14:52

Newlad:



I agree they have more support than even 6 months ago.. Turkey has a lot more clout too especially in terms of NATO



The question is who has the will to move the Cyprus Problem to a resolution. Turkey definitely wants to - hence it has been pushing Talat but the GC like to play it both ways (not surprising).



The TCs got their fingers burnt in 2004 and were then 'paid off with a mere Euros 259 million' as bandage for their commitment to Annan!



Chances are one or other side will not support a solution.



Seeing the GC for what they are - is a good step forward - but they are in the EU and can make life very difficult for Turky's accession!



The other obvious problem is whether the TRNC is ready to enter the EU? Laws have to be harmonised, human rights legislation enacted, private property rights protected etc.,



Mb it could go in with Turkey - which is a long, long way from getting in to the EU - if ever, and no one is actually sure they want to be in the EU

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 14:53

Nice one Mal.And obviously the gcs are loathing the idea,

Paul.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 14:56

I really hope that the e.u. is given a wide berth and the lira is kept as the currency,

Paul.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 15:44

the cyprus talks were doomed before they started



not because there is an absence of goodwill, there is a little

not because cyprus 44 members can't suggest intelligent compromise solutions, they can

not because the gc regime is intransigent, it is, but turkey could theoretically throw in the towel



instead, look to the stuttering and indirect syria/israel talks for guidance:



yes those parties hate and loathe each other

yes there are also buffer zones, occupied territory and displaced peoples

yes the "international community" wants a settlement



but the outlines of any syria/israel agreement are very well established,

israel hands syria the golan heights and is afforded peace and recognition



no such consensus exists for cyprus

so we have a variety of ingenious suggestions without the real thing

eg 100-year leases, annan 2004 rising from the dead lazarus-like

and real or imaginary foreign pressures ...even a complex deal made "on the hoof"



you gotta be jokin'

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 16:56

Think that the gcs missed their chance in 2004. And now that boat has sailed away, never to be seen again,

Paul.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 17:40

paul message 14:



they may well have done, but cannot say I have read the proposal and am told it ran to 9000 pages

it was not even a consensual/agreed proposal, the un having to cover for serious gaps I understand

co-operation in drafting annan was said to be more or less tied-in with (south) cyprus joining the eu



significantly, there are hints that no trnc territory would be offered to the gc regime "this time around"



rather, the point I was making in message 13 was that instead of waiting with baited breath as it were,

we should note that there is very little agreed consensus in what any 2010 cyprus proposal might look like,

multilingual town signs apart

...this is a far far more serious problem than who represents whom at any particular moment in time!



finally on the syria/israel question, I am not actually suggesting the sides will indeed reach agreement

but if they do it will be on the basis of message 13 line 10, not on any good wishes from the likes of us

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
28/12/2009 21:09

andre,

"there are hints that no trnc territory would be offered to the gc regime" you are obviously reading the same reports as me.Trust me Andre the gcs are running scared this time as they have a lot more countries who are now opposing their views.The ballis now firmly in Turkeys court.I personally think that they will only go with the e.u. on their(Turkeys) terms,

Paul.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
29/12/2009 00:58

paul,



it is not just your good self but nearly half of those posting this topic on cyprus 44

seem to believe there is really some new sort of "dynamic" going on at present,

relating to "turkey's accession" and/or the "cyprus talks"

and that this is more than a load of waffle puffed by gc sympathisers and their ilk



whilst for me, there is no solid evidence that anything has really changed at all

...for this I have been described as a pessimist or as possessing ulterior motives,

when in fact I have no particular "personal opinion" on these important "issues"



but as they say, you can lead a horse to water...etc

Geoff


Joined: 25/06/2008
Posts: 1370

Message Posted:
29/12/2009 09:25

Yes, but you have to have the water in place and the means of taking the horse to it in order to have any chance at all!

Geoff

Famagusta

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
29/12/2009 11:33

Its all in plan B folks,

Paul.

Geoff


Joined: 25/06/2008
Posts: 1370

Message Posted:
29/12/2009 12:07

Yeah right!!

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
29/12/2009 12:25

Its cunning Geoff,

Paul.

Geoff


Joined: 25/06/2008
Posts: 1370

Message Posted:
29/12/2009 13:27

I sure hope it is Paul,

Geoff

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
29/12/2009 13:29

Anyone know what it is.I keep hearing it mentioned by the President,but when questioned he remains tight lipped,

Paul.

TRNCVaughan


Joined: 27/04/2008
Posts: 4578

Message Posted:
29/12/2009 14:22

I think he is implying that the reunification game isn't the only one in town.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
29/12/2009 14:29

Vaughan,

So there actually is a plan B then,

Paul.

stusimpson


Joined: 06/08/2007
Posts: 178

Message Posted:
29/12/2009 14:42

Apologies if I'm being thick but if indeed Turkey are getting riled that the 'solution' to the Cyprus problem is being blocked by the greeks all the time,then why does Turkey not apply pressure to the 2 biggest countries that have influence over the greeks.Namely Russia and the USA?



Surely the fact that Greece has nothing to offer anyone apart from nice beaches ,and is massively in debt,despite being in the EU,is it not Turkey who in this age of middle east politics that hold all the aces.



What my tiny brain cannot understand is why Obama has not been told by the Turkish president that if they want to use the air bases etc etc then his support to this problem needs to be given.I keep reading that the French and Germans are pulling the strings in supporting the Greeks but where are the powerhouses that could potentially be supporting a solution with Turkey?



I bought 4 years ago and now I just feel that 'noone' seems to want to do anything,its just all talk,am I wrong?



Cheers

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
29/12/2009 14:49

Stu,

Do you mean the Greeks or the Greek Cypriots,

Paul.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
29/12/2009 16:23

stu message 26:



again (groan!) there's the suggestion, if I read your posting correctly

that there should rather than should not be found a solution to the cyprus "problem"



yet any greek (cypriot) or sympathiser worth their salt

knows that in the event of a solution being found to the cyprus "problem",

someone or other is going to bear the cost of it all:

we are talking about people losing their homes: how would you feel?



since the gc regime has shown little willingness to compromise so far

(and perleeeeze... I'm not saying they should or shouldn't!!!)

it's us lot up north cyprus who'd bear the brunt, surely

so what we are saying is one person's solution could be another's "problem"



but be not of faint heart:

poor talat's political mandate narrows by the day,

while our friends in the south continue to be as dog-in-the-manger as ever

in their approach to the cyprus "problem"



I'd dispute that cyprus warrants any great power losing sleep, akrotiri airbase apart