Current Cyprus Talks are now expected to fail

malsancak


Joined: 23/08/2009
Posts: 2874

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 11:09

"Even though Derviş Eroğlu, who is currently expected to be the new north Cyprus President, has said that talks will continue after the Presidential elections in April, the talks are now expected to fail..."

Read more at http://www.northcyprusfreepress.com/2009/12/31/current-cyprus-talks-are-now-expected-to-fail/

smithy


Joined: 17/07/2008
Posts: 5301

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 11:24

I never expected anything different, did you ??

WAZ-24-7



Joined: 18/10/2008
Posts: 695

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 15:25

So What direction will matters proceed?

The ROC are less pressed for solution. The TRNC and Turkey have much more to gain and have clear and defined asspiration to settle.

Will the UN take a lead? UN resolutions are prohibitive to acknowledging the TRNC.

Will the European Courts help or hinder and solution?

What will Turkey do when the talks fail?

Certainly 2010 promises to be decisive in formulating the future.

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 15:38

I wouldn't hold your breath on the talks failing if Erodglu becomes President.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 15:58

Bill,

Pleas expand on mess 4,

Paul.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 16:29

Waz,

Still a lot of twists and turns to take place yet.Turkey now have a lot more allies within the E.U. who may voice ther opinions in the coming months.I would say though that the r.o.c. are more pressed for solution then less pressed as they wont want to be staring over the seperation border at 40,000 turkish troops.Feb should sort it eiither way,

Paul.

malsancak


Joined: 23/08/2009
Posts: 2874

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 17:26

But there is still room for the EU to take the Cyprus problem out of Turkey's EU entry conditions if it can be seen that Cypriots cannot agree on a solution. Why should Turkey be penalised for not getting a solution which they would argue was out of their control?

WAZ-24-7



Joined: 18/10/2008
Posts: 695

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 18:56

I believe that it will be the UN that will intervene and justly so. It is international political action that will drive the situation forward. USA, turkey and all UN must address the middle eastern influence and threat upon the west. Cyprus is a pivotal and strategic geographical player. Potential instability upon the Island cannot be afforded in the developing climate of world religous and influencial divergence.



Yes the EU has influence because ROC is a member and Turkey have asspiration to join. The ROC will have little influence upon EU demands upon Turkey they are simply without clout. The Cyprus issue will not be top of assension agenda whilst other more important chapters are addressed.

The western world needs stability on the island and to be secure in the thought that the whole of Cyprus is an ally aligned very clearly with the West. To attain this some concession to the TRNC is a strong possibility.

We may even see some new UN resolutions in 2010 to like effect.

Moover321


Joined: 11/04/2009
Posts: 649

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 19:09

Paul:



I hope in many ways that you are correct I would like to see the TRNC prosper and for it to aat least have a freehand in its destiny!



We need more hope than fear in all respects as we enter another decade.



Normally, when an 'agreement' is likely there is a lot of background noise and off the record briefings Politicians like to be the bearers of good news.



To date I have heard some positive murmuring but not the ground swell if an agreement was imminent!



What I have noticed - is some positive business activity - especially in the Girne region. Not sure if they know something or not... Time will tell!



Anyhow - let me take this opportunity to wish you all the very best for 2010 - and please keep you posts coming - they add value to C44



Moover321

Moover321


Joined: 11/04/2009
Posts: 649

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 19:19

Malsancak / Waz-24-7:



Mal: Agreed - The EU should take out the 'Cyprus' issue from Turkey's accession. It was after all the EU which cocked-up in 2004 and the 'bought off the TRNC with Euros 259 Million'! The question is whether there is the political will?



At the moment - I cannot see it! But you never know



Thanks for all your interesting posts this year and I want to wish you and your nearest all the very best for 2010 Enjoy



Waz-24-7:



I agree that the UN and the USA needs to play a more proactive role to get the ball rolling with the intransigence of the GCs.



There is a strategic imperative for them to do so. The volatility in the region requires for the EU and the USA to keep Turkey onside - but will they? I hope - but I think it may take even more time and effort on the part of all parties to crack this Cypriot 'nut'



I also wish you and your nearest all the best for 2010 and here's hoping that 'Hope' - will in the end over come fear



Moover321

awellwisher


Joined: 12/04/2009
Posts: 28

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 20:33

The GC's have only got to hang on until April and then they will almost certainly reclaim the higher moral by saying that the new TC leader is impossible to negotiate with.



What a pity things didn't move faster in 2009.



AWW

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 20:33

Cheers Moover,

Same to you and keep your posts flowing as well,

Paul.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 20:39

Thats a bit rich well wisher.Bearing in mind that the gcs wont budge on anything,

Paul.

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 20:45

I think Eroglu (if he becomes President) will want to carry on with the negotiations. He sure won't want to have the finger pointed at him as being the man who failed to complete the talk process.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 20:50

Bill,

Maybe so but i think that he will just go through the motions as he is very much against the E.U.

Paul.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 20:54

waz,waz,



your tone reminds me of the cliffhangers

at the end of saturday morning pictures in the 1950's



surely stalemate means exactly what it says on the tin,

not international bodies running about like cats on a hot tin roof

with regional and great powers losing any sleep over it



perhaps I'm out of touch, but it seems to me

there are huge problems in the world that have little to do with cyprus



perhaps some of us have been mind-warped by gc huff and puff,

because as the man once said, repeat a lie often enough and...etc

WAZ-24-7



Joined: 18/10/2008
Posts: 695

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 22:39

andre,

I cannot believe that the UN, USA and EU will be satisfied with any stalemate situation.

It is imperative that the Island attains a unilateral settlement in which both sides are able to move forward with security and confidence.



The long standing peace is of course encouraging. However the Island lacks the political stability that ouside powers desire and pro-actively encourage. Island stability and allegience to the West is paramount for the involved world powers.

My belief is that Cyprus is now unable and incapable of resolving its own issues. Issues that will soon have a far more profound effect upon Cyprus and its future.

Maz


Joined: 29/03/2009
Posts: 1924

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 22:44

Funny, but I hearde a rumour that there could be certainparties that will ensure (and goodness knows how!) that Talat remains President so that the talks WILL continue, as he has a different brief to that of Eroglu. At least that is what I have heard.

But then this place is full of 'Chinese whispers'

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
31/12/2009 23:41

I'm not sure marion that personalities count for nothing

but since a quarter of the world continue to have "unresolved issues"

and life continues somehow or other, cyprus not not feeel lonely



i doubt talat is now capable of delivering anything,

though I am sure of his sincerity

since he represents only a minority of opinion in the north

which is even shrinking as of now



talat has had very little real response from the other side

whom for good or ill simply repeat time-worn formulae,

by and large



does this mean the end of life, love and imagination?

I very much doubt it!



the great powers waz?

I think they've had quite enough of the cyprus problem

Maz


Joined: 29/03/2009
Posts: 1924

Message Posted:
01/01/2010 01:46

Some very valid points Andre, and I think a lot of people have had enough of the Cyprus problem, which as you say is but one in the world, but one which is very real to a lot of people who would see it solved. But I think part of the current push is because of the E.U. and Turkey's application and the south's entry at the wrong time. Guess some folk want to see it solved. I feel sorry for Talat as I think he is talking with a 'brick wall'.



But hope springs eternal.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
03/01/2010 14:31

marie and waz,



recent history shows that great and certainly the lesser powers

cannot always command simply by snapping their fingers



imposing your will may be possible with bodybags shipping home

...but we have quite enough of that happening already, thank you



it is amazing to read postings along the lines of "the un will never allow"

and "by now the usa will have decided that" or "the eu cannot tolerate" etc etc



somalia?

the koreas?

lebanon?

israel/palestine

iran?



yes you can always have a peace deal, assuming there is any fighting!

...and only if the sides both decide they want it eg ireland



but when there is no fighting but instead a total deadlock

eg in cyprus where if the sides cannot agree on anything much

and arrogant powers again stick their oar in

we may enter the violent territory popularly called "regime change"



yes it would be marvellous to see the cyprus dispute "solved"

but this can only ever happen if the sides achieve it themselves

greylag


Joined: 08/04/2009
Posts: 1110

Message Posted:
03/01/2010 20:53

And unfortunateley Andre,the two sides will not be able to solve the situation without some form of intervention.Talat has asked for assistance,but the big bad wolf (Christofias) wont here of it,

Grey.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
03/01/2010 22:28

grey,



I am sure the two sides could make very good use of a little help, especially cash aid

but when you say "intervention" I'd assume you mean GI Joe (and GI Jane) parachuting in,

granted that the business community and tourism could benefit from a stable "reunification"



if it can be achieved without yet more victims

...unlike the bombing of serbia in recent years, or the very costly iraq and afghanistan operations



whom should the intervention be mounted against, and who would pay for it?



or perhaps you mean just more huff and puff, or tougher sanctions? and will turkey listen to "us"?



I think we should be told!

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
03/01/2010 22:45

and come to think of it, the un tried intervening and helped set up the 2004 referendum,

soundly rejected by more than three quarters of greek cypriots of course



while there is a un armed peacekeeping force, that's been in cyprus for yonks and yonks



so no agreement is in view at all but no fighting is likely either, so what's the real problem?

WAZ-24-7



Joined: 18/10/2008
Posts: 695

Message Posted:
04/01/2010 00:19

Andre,

You are absolutely correct that peace prevails and there is clear absence of fighting and direct conflict.

However,

The USA, UN and EU seek stability and security in the back yard. This is supported by intervention into Afghanistan.



Cyprus, regardless of the prevailing peace remains in a state of uncertainty and instability.

It is a certain aspiration for the major powers that have influence in the Middle East, including the Eastern

Mediteranean to seek the said stability and security aligned with same.



Local politics in TRNC and ROC are clearly not providing the route to sucessful solution.

2010, I believe will see some distinctive political intervention.

As to what...I hesitate to guess.

greylag


Joined: 08/04/2009
Posts: 1110

Message Posted:
05/01/2010 20:30

Something will happen and soon, as there is too much at stake for alot of people,

Grey.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
07/01/2010 01:43

waz and gl:



intervention? you might think it is "inevitable"

but are at a loss when it comes to suggesting who does it and why:

and are you talking about physical intervention or more diplomacy?



firstly, landing troops could result in casualties



secondly, it is not at clear clear what you think the object of any excercise would be,

the gc's want property, the tc's their future safety, and liberal politicians dream about power sharing

where the opposing communities either share control of cyprus (tc perspective)

...or set up all-island elections (greek cypriot perspective)



thirdly, I would dispute that cyprus is a mid-east island of any real strategic significance,

except perhaps the akrotiri airbase which is british sovereign territory



forthly intervention has been tried and failed, by britain, and by us or eu as honest brokers



fifthly yes there's a great deal at stake but half-baked colonial adventures could make things far worse



nothing will happen!