Is the bubble about to burst

wanderer


Joined: 05/02/2009
Posts: 1653

Message Posted:
29/01/2010 12:17

Sorry about the rhyming slang

There is a threat to the UK here as well, we are committed to supporting fellow EU members is difficul even though we are no in the Euro

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1246838/Dangerous-weakness-EU-states-threaten-euro-zone-Germanys-economy-minister-warns.html

TRNCVaughan


Joined: 27/04/2008
Posts: 4578

Message Posted:
29/01/2010 12:28

Take a look at:



http://www.advfn.com/currency-converter/pound-to-euro.html



Check out the graph since October 2009 and look at the effect this is having on the Pound Sterling. Most of the recent gains have been the flip side of the Euros' shakyness.

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
29/01/2010 12:40

The bankers will have told Obama and will tell Brown and Darling that the entire plan they have all bought into depends on the banks making very large profits.



The banks will not survive on even decent profits. In order to keep cash flow to hide their on-going losses, pay dividends and pay back TARP they all need bubble level profits.



The sad part of this truth is that it was entirely logically predictable from the moment we started the bail outs.



But the urgency of the bankers cries is compounded by the fact that the 'recovery' is not faltering but teetering on the edge of a cliff.



Look at the evidence. Consumer spending in the largest consumer market, America, is still declining, New house sales have declined - again. Commercial real estate defaults are continuing to grow. Losses from Alt-A and Option ARM mortgages only start to get serious this spring.



to be cont..

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
29/01/2010 12:41

Elsewhere the signs are bad. Greece can't sell its debt anywhere. Not even to the Chinese. The Chinese spooked the whole asian market as soon as they even spoke about reigning in their own banking and housing bubble.A bubble whicvh will burst if they don't reign it in.



Japanese consumer is spending is at a low not seen for over two decades. SO their home market is in the toilet and the national debt is climbing toward 200% of GDP.



Dubai is now talking to its creditors about -rescheduling $60B of debt. Re-scheduling mean they can't pay and given taht the cash top pay would have top come from a pick up in the underlying assets, which are Dubai real estate - that isn't going to happen, is it?!



So the up shot of this and much more, I could bore you to death with a list to choke on, is that not only are the bankers saying flat out "You cannot reign in our abilities to make huge profits." but they are also pointing out that the stimulus also cannot be withdrawn. The FED will have

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
29/01/2010 12:42

to keep buying up mortgage securities. They will have top provide more bail outs to cover the next write downs and allow the hiding of losses to extend. Here QE will have to continue.



All necessary if the banks are not to finally take their losses and collapse into insolvency.



But against these necessities are those of the bond and currency markets. Governments cannot keep flooding more and more debt into the market. They cannot indefinitely keep paying more and more debt repayment.



And finally there is the small matter of the people. How long can governments keep the little people in debt servitude in order for the rich to profit?



I would say the jaws of the vice are now closing.

jimmy


Joined: 15/09/2008
Posts: 251

Message Posted:
29/01/2010 13:12

Nationwide report yet another rise in House prices for the month & the UK is supposedly out of recession but that's not what I'm reading or hearing. The TRNC initially thrived off the back of cheap money & high house prices in the UK which I think is a big problem for this place cos people can't sell in the UK & they can't re-mortgage every 5 mins to jet off & buy a holiday home in places like this.



http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/



http://www.thisisderbyshire.co.uk/news/fear-750-toyota-jobs/article-1769414-detail/article.html



http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/27/cbi-retail-survey-sales-slump



http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2010/01/28/10-000-council-jobs-in-wales-may-be-lost-91466-25702347/



http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1912-Uh,-Wheres-My-Recovery-Durable-Goods.html



I follow the economy very closely & I think this could be the start of the 2nd leg down

Troodo


Joined: 12/06/2008
Posts: 1002

Message Posted:
29/01/2010 15:40

They have forgotten the Greedy so called Greeks of Cyprus. They took lessons from Greece on how to con their way into the euro - now their economy is going down the plug hole.

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
29/01/2010 16:16

jimmy, hold on tight, there's a grim outlook for the UK economy, needing exports and less consumer demand, but unable to generate either. Seemingly the economy is set to bounce along the bottom if not dip further and (back) into recession.

Troodo


Joined: 12/06/2008
Posts: 1002

Message Posted:
29/01/2010 17:25

Why not emigrate to the TRNC our national dept is less and the housing, and cost of living, cheaper - and the sun shines most days.

Corbo



Joined: 13/09/2009
Posts: 627

Message Posted:
29/01/2010 17:27

I would seriously consider it Troodo if I could earn a living here.