do they have a "plan b"?

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
14/09/2010 21:43

oh no not our lot, expect a similar mixture as before

...I'm talking about the european union, and cristofias



turkey has been trying to get into the common market/eu for 51 years

but many eu states never wanted them, then or now

yes the "cyprob" adds a new twist, but cyprus was still a colony in 1959,

soon the penny will drop, and then what?



for the eu this is the problem:

europe hoped turkey would act as a buffer state guarding their east flank

in other words, a friendly watch-cat happily patrolling the borders,

but the kitten has now become a scornful tiger, pacing back and forth



the eu must worry about rising turkey palling up with iran,

and dangerous friends like russia, and lapping up the cream

put there for the winner to enjoy by the silk road to asia



turkey's protege the trnc has worked with the gc leadership

for two years to cut a deal, but the circle just cannot be squared:

so cristofias' legacy will be to leave turkey still garrisoned in the north

sienna


Joined: 09/01/2009
Posts: 1627

Message Posted:
14/09/2010 22:21

didnt know they had a plan 'A'

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
14/09/2010 23:13

yes sienne they both had a plan "a"



for the leaders of the eu and many of their voters

to keep to keep turkey out but not get them too angry



for greek cypriot politicians to offer a deal on cyprus

that deprives the north of most of its security

while waving turkey through on the road to europe,

simply allowing france-germany to repeat their "non"!



but neither idea has worked out exactly as hoped

with turkey now emerging as an important regional force

and greek cyprus' russian best friend acting in their own interest

fiendishpaul


Joined: 18/05/2008
Posts: 1720

Message Posted:
15/09/2010 08:43

Andre



Whilst I agree with most of your posting, I think that the question of 'security' is no longer an issue. Security from who ? The RoC ? There is more chance of the North being invaded by Italy than the RoC. It would be political suicide for them to try anything and any 'invasion' could be quickly repelled by reinforcements from the Turkish mainland. A reduction in troop numbers on this side is a simple, no risk concession for Turkey - they just need to match troop numbers in the South.



Paul

Troodo


Joined: 12/06/2008
Posts: 1002

Message Posted:
15/09/2010 09:16

You can't trust the south, they will act first and argue with the EU afterwards.

fiendishpaul


Joined: 18/05/2008
Posts: 1720

Message Posted:
15/09/2010 10:03

Troodo



I understand your suspicion but do you really think that the RoC is a military threat or by 'invading' would risk throwing away everything that they have gained in joining the EU ? No chance !! If truth be known, the RoC is more worried about TR troops moving South than vice versa. Turkey just has to garrison an equal amount of troops as in the South to maintain the military status quo.



Paul

wynyardman



Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 4580

Message Posted:
15/09/2010 10:11

They do not need a Plan B.



Plan A has the flexibility. The Cyprus Problem will be long settled well before they have to decide Turkeys long term future.



Turkey is getting financially stronger by the day. By the time that they have to decide East or West they will have both sides begging them to come on board.



Just imho of course.



wynyardman