UK Economy in recession

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
20/10/2008 11:40

The UK economy has "deteriorated dramatically" in the past three months, and is already in a recession, top forecasters have suggested.



How do the UK section of the forum propose to 'cut-back' ?

Groucho



Joined: 26/04/2008
Posts: 7993

Message Posted:
20/10/2008 11:52

If you believe the Government the way out of recession is to borrow more and spend your way out! Idiots...

Bertie


Joined: 15/04/2008
Posts: 155

Message Posted:
20/10/2008 11:57

I'm going to cut back listening to the wall to wall coverage of it there is only so much speculation of doom and gloom I can bear.

elko2



Joined: 24/07/2007
Posts: 4400

Message Posted:
20/10/2008 12:16

The real recession will be seen here in TRNC in the next few months. There is a very severe shortage of cash already on the market and all shops and businesses are complaining bitterly. Money borrowed on credit cards increased ten folds in the last 12 months and people are already borrowing from one bank to pay the minimum amount on another bank. As we say in Turkish, "We fit Ali's hat onto Veli and so on". I expect many people will not be able to pay back any more very soon and many banks may be in trouble.

ismet

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
20/10/2008 12:24

msge 4



that's bad news elko2, yet inevitable. Nobody wants a recession anywhere in the world, but the TRNC must be one of those places which can really ill afford it.



Soyer has said that precautions will be taken to minimise effects. I suspect his hands are tied, but what action do you think he could take Elko2?

Aussie


Joined: 17/06/2007
Posts: 657

Message Posted:
20/10/2008 13:22

As I see it the TRNC is a very externally focussed economy relying on industries such as tourism, construction and real estate. Plus a substantial influx of money from overseas from resident and regularly visiting expats and financial assitance from Turkey.



Physical exports are very small due to the direct trade embargoes, high cost of labour and electricity compared to nearby countries such as Turkey (some industries are relocating there from the TRNC) and the recent drought restricting agricultural production. Consequently it runs large trade deficits.



The domestic economy is too small to be self supporting in any meaningful way.



The upshot of this is what happens here is heavily influenced by the global economy particularly the UK and Europe and Turkey.



Aussie

fire starter


Joined: 19/06/2008
Posts: 3401

Message Posted:
20/10/2008 14:32

they keep saying the uk is in recession but i dont see it.

two weeks ago when we went back, we cued in every shop to be served.

people were out and about spending money, it was no different from when i left.



borrowing has got harder and interest rates are high. i saw no signs of recession in east anglia.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
20/10/2008 17:17

message 6



as ever, an educational post aussie

lovingcyprus


Joined: 02/03/2007
Posts: 1272

Message Posted:
20/10/2008 17:52

fire starter



Fewer staff in the shops to serve you thats why there are queues

viking


Joined: 09/10/2008
Posts: 36

Message Posted:
20/10/2008 18:12

The recession has definetly hit here in the North East, although all the shops have sales, end of season reductions, nobody is buying because of the uncertainty of the future, only last week another food factory announced closure 350 out of work (ironically owned by and Icelandic company) we were once hailed as the food town of europe, but that sadly is not the case today

Southport Jan


Joined: 02/10/2008
Posts: 3

Message Posted:
20/10/2008 18:12

In London for a business trip this week I did not see any sign of recession since the shops were packed and selling was brisk.

We struggled to find a hotel that was not fully booked and most of the people we spoke to in the hotels were foreigners especially Americans on holiday.



House prices rose far too quickly to a point that most people on average wages just could not afford the massive mortgage repayments or even the deposit for first time buyers. I think that if the house prices go back to affordable levels then things will be much better all around.



Forget keeping up with the neighbours and realise that you can only spend your salary and keep within your limits.



Jan

flightholiday


Joined: 19/07/2007
Posts: 3217

Message Posted:
20/10/2008 21:54

Hi Jan,



You may have seen full shops but where was that?



Go down any high street in Britain and many of them are far quieter than before.



If it is buying now from stock on shelves that may be one thing but looking forward when the stock has sold I suspect you will see someting far different - advance ordering is not happening. Buying prices are rising dramaticaly too.



There is certainley a huge change in the trading pattern that we are seeing here and for others in Travel change the word from huge to drastic.

Groucho



Joined: 26/04/2008
Posts: 7993

Message Posted:
20/10/2008 22:43

fire starter



You don't see the recession yet because it has not really hit home as yet... every one is talking about feeling the pinch but not actually suffering the full effects just now... a year to eighteen months down the line... it's going to be tough...



Now the Us and UK govs are talking about spending their way out of recession.... it's crazy.. it only serves to make sure the filthy rich remain so.



It does not create real jobs it just papers over the cracks with fake money.



The people of the TRNC as used to feeling the pinch and they know how to make their money go around... it's the expats who will feel it more.



OK so TCs might have to hand back some of their plush cars but they know how to live cheap.... they've had nearly 35 years of making do. We've had it good...

RedSnapper


Joined: 12/08/2008
Posts: 540

Message Posted:
21/10/2008 00:51

just said on the itv local news that the country is in recession now and they are even considering cancelling the proposed new bank holiday before we`ve even had it!! athink quite a few banks will be on a permanent holiday soon!!

Turtle


Joined: 28/05/2007
Posts: 2669

Message Posted:
21/10/2008 01:13

This govenment has borrowed more in the last 6 months since records began (1948) I suppose maggie is to blame fo that as well ?

I've lost count how many billions this crew have borrowed and still need to borrow billions more...................what a state we are in!!

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
21/10/2008 10:20

Groucho's right - it hasn't started to bite yet. I fear we'll all suffer in one way or another. Consumer spending growth is expected to slow due to the severe squeeze on consumer spending from high debt levels, tighter

credit conditions, falling housing wealth and sharply increasing household

energy, petrol and food bills. The poorest households will be hit most severely by higher energy and food price inflation. Business investment growth is also

expected to moderate significantly in the face of uncertainties relating to the global credit crunch, while public spending growth is planned to be much more

subdued than in recent years.

RedSnapper


Joined: 12/08/2008
Posts: 540

Message Posted:
21/10/2008 10:26

biting in s.yorks now, two of my mates bankrupt, financial adviser and builder. most construction sites fenced off, pubs empty apart from friday,leaflets and door callers trying to drum up business, 120% p/ex offer from barrats sainsbury`s half empty, netto full...

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
21/10/2008 12:27

I have no idea what they are saying, but they ask us to see the positive in the governments actions



http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4981188.ece

Groucho



Joined: 26/04/2008
Posts: 7993

Message Posted:
21/10/2008 14:43

BBC report - Rich and poor gap 'narrows' in UK



Since 2000, income inequality in the UK has fallen, says the OECD

The gap between rich and poor in the UK has decreased since 2000, an international survey has concluded.



The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says the decline in inequality in Britain has been "remarkable".



The report's author told the BBC: "...the poor have been getting richer more rapidly than the rich since 2000."



Then the killer......



But the report says the UK still has one of the highest levels of income inequality in the developed world.



So just when you thought the gap was going to get smaller the Credit Crunch comes along to restore the rich to their erstwhile status by increasing the gap once more... so that's nice!



I knew it was too good to be true....

Groucho



Joined: 26/04/2008
Posts: 7993

Message Posted:
21/10/2008 14:59

Even mnore ironic on the same page is a link to this story:-



More children living in poverty



The government is committed to eradicating child poverty by 2020

The number of children living in poverty has risen for a second year, a government report says.



The government called the rise in poverty levels "disappointing" and the increase may threaten its target of halving child poverty by 2010.



The number of children living in poverty rose by 100,000 in 2006-2007 to 2.9 million before housing costs.



Pensioner poverty increased for the first time since 1998, rising by 300,000 to a total of 2.5 million.



The number of children and pensioners in poverty is greater once costs such as rent and mortgages are taken into account.



So which report is correct? Probably neither!



"Statistics are like a bikini... what they hide is more interesting than those things they reveal.." Rev A H Simmons HCF FRSA

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
21/10/2008 15:14

Good post Grouch - I particularly liked the last line

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
21/10/2008 15:20

msge 19



"BBC report - Rich and poor gap 'narrows' in UK"





Nearly fell of my chair with that statement Groucho. I wonder how much the gap has reduced too. From what to what? Wouldn't have thought it to be too significant.



Scandalous the number of children in poverty. That goes for pensioners as well

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
21/10/2008 15:24

Yes totally agree Mark.



Are we still giving aid to other countries?

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
21/10/2008 15:30

for sure Bill, but these countries that we give aid to end up having to pay more interest than the aid, for the economic loans we also give them, thus keeping them in debt.



In many of these countries the aid ends up in the hands of powerful dictators. The west is learning it's lesson and demands accountability for the money it gives. The only problem is that the Chinese are now undermining the West by going in and giving money to the dictators in return for raw materials and resources.

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
21/10/2008 15:34

Similar to what the USA have been doing for years

Groucho



Joined: 26/04/2008
Posts: 7993

Message Posted:
21/10/2008 15:37

“A bank is a place where they lend you an umbrella in

fair weather and ask for it back when it begins to rain.”



Robert Frost

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
21/10/2008 15:42

A survey report out today has stated, Falling demand for UK-made goods and a drop in output has caused the sharpest single-quarter fall in manufacturing confidence in 28 years, a survey says. In the past three months, 16% of firms had seen a rise in new orders but 46% said they had fallen, the CBI's Industrial Trends survey said. It also found orders for UK-made goods had declined at their fastest rate since 1999 as domestic demand fell.



The outlook for the economy has been hit by the global financial crisis.



In total, 60% of the 525 manufacturing firms which took part in the survey were less optimistic about the general business situation than three months prior.