Turkish troops in TRNC

WAZ-24-7



Joined: 18/10/2008
Posts: 695

Message Posted:
30/10/2008 21:59

Most visitors and certainly inhabitants will have seen the Turkish military presence in TRNC.



Turkish troops are under the control of Ankara.

If troops were withdrawn. Would the South invade? Would the UN stay to keep the sides divided?



OR could the gesture lead to real progress in a Solution to current divisions?

wynyardman



Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 4580

Message Posted:
30/10/2008 22:05

The Turkish troops are going nowhere until Ankara get for the TRNC, a fair and equitable



settlement.



Perhaps the question you should be asking is, who is going to attack the Turkish army, and



through them out, if the EC tell Ankara to withdraw them, and they refuse?



Just y optomistic thoughts, thats all!



wyn

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
30/10/2008 22:10

WAZ,

So many questions in one post."if the troops were withdrawn would the south invade".Personally i think not as they would feel the might of the full Turkish army and we would be back to square one.



"Would the un stay" for a period of time i suppose they would.And i believe the gesture would lead to real progress.Ankara the ball is in your court,

Paul.

wynyardman



Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 4580

Message Posted:
30/10/2008 22:14

Msg2 erratum.



Should have course have read throw.



wyn

WAZ-24-7



Joined: 18/10/2008
Posts: 695

Message Posted:
30/10/2008 22:15

Perhaps a Troop withdrawl could be linked to Turkey joining the EU.

The EU might consider throwing money at the divided Island linked to a reunification. Incentives could really move matters on.



The EU and to lesser extent the UN could really drive a settlement deal forward.



Both North and South are tentively talking about a deal so come on the EU grasp the oportunity before next years TRNC elections

wynyardman



Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 4580

Message Posted:
30/10/2008 22:21

WAZ-24-7,



Fair point. BUT I repeat.......They are going nowhere until Ankara gets a fair and equitable deal for The TRNC.



wyn

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
30/10/2008 22:23

Waz,

The turkish withdrawal is in fact one of the biggest stumbling blocks in the talks.But the eu have no power to enforce the movement and would rather sit on the fence and watch the leaers bicker and dilly dally and argue about events that took place years ago.Dont get me wrong i am all in favour of remembering the dead from both sides.But there comes a time when you have to draw a line through it and say o.k. enough is enough,time to move on.Sorry if this offends anyone but we are all entitled to our opinion on here,

Paul.

wynyardman



Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 4580

Message Posted:
30/10/2008 22:27

we are all entitled to our opinions on here!



Thats news to me!



wyn

WAZ-24-7



Joined: 18/10/2008
Posts: 695

Message Posted:
30/10/2008 22:33

Paul,

Absolutely agree that withdrawl is stumbling block. However there is a definite window of opportunity on the immediate horizon.



Turkey are still somewhat isolated from the EU. Turkey is very keen to join the EU in order to capitalise on its current strong trade with EU states.. Textiles, Motor vehicles, tourism. The incentive to resolve the cyprus issue is there and should be capitalised on. I expect that peripheral talks have already been had.



I believe that the EU should really take the matter by the horns. I do not believe that it can be resolved without off the Island intevention. Mr Annan started in 2004, the EU need to drive it forward with financial and membership incentives.

Aussie


Joined: 17/06/2007
Posts: 657

Message Posted:
30/10/2008 22:55

Even if they never agree on a settlement I don't see why they shoudn't be able to agree on limiting the number of troops on each side to a much smaller number than at present (say 5-10,000 troops each).



In reality have say 50,000 plus soldiers on each side in practical terms means nothing. Even if either side was inclined to be belligerent the absolute numbers here wouldnt be significant in a strategic sense.



The ROC wouldn't dare to invade the TRNC given the short time it would take Turkey to send reinforcements and achieve total air superiority (Like what happened to Georgia).



In reverse If Turkey/ TRNC decided to attack presumably it would have planned it before and easily devote substantial enough resources from the mainland to break through regardless. The ROC really would be relying on the international community for diplomatic and / or military support more than its army.



Both sides could save a lot of money and avoid the need to maintain mass conscription.



Aussie

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
30/10/2008 23:03

msge 1 - I like your writing style and depth of knowledge



A big problem I see in the negotiations is this lack of trust between the two sides. Neither side is willing to make the first major concession for fear that the other side will not reciprocate or worse take advantage.

Turkey could withdraw it's troops, but the GC's have never made any major concessions in the past, so their is no history of goodwill, no memory of a major kindly gesture. Turkey has said it will withdraw it's troops once political equality has been assured to the TC's. Implementing this and subsequently measuring this poses somewhat of a major challenge. The TRNC will not give up Turkeys guarantorship which the GC's find totally unacceptable and outdated.

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
30/10/2008 23:08

msg 1:



yes obviously they would, but they wouldn't call it "invade" would they pikey?



as regards everything linked to everything else ie turkey into the eu

this all sounds very "pat" but not sure it really works this way in practice



for a start although the uk wants turkey "in" for its own reasons

britain has about as much control over france and germany,

sorry I meant to say over the eu,

as a mewling newborn kitten...could bite their ankles I suppose



and turkey, wonderful and fascinating place as it is,

is unwanted as member by most of the others,

who could simply be using the cyprus imbroglio as a pretext



and ere!

wasn't the so-called republic of cyprus not really supposed

to join the eu until the cypus problem was sorted?



andre

lovingcyprus


Joined: 02/03/2007
Posts: 1272

Message Posted:
30/10/2008 23:13

If anyone thinks that the EU can drive things forward they are not on this planet.



What did the EU after the 2004 referendum about direct trade etc. nothing happened there did it.

lovingcyprus


Joined: 02/03/2007
Posts: 1272

Message Posted:
30/10/2008 23:15

after the letters insert say in my previous post

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
30/10/2008 23:18

msge 5



I agree, I have always maintained that the EU should be involved in the negotiations, more so than the UN, however both sides have previously blamed external mediators for the two sides not formally agreeing a settlement.

For example, the GC's felt that the Anan plan was unduly biased against their cause. The GC's will want to ensure that many conditions imposed in the Annan plan are removed and are more favourable to their wishes. They can do this if other bodies removed.

It seems this time the cypriots want to try on their own, with advisory support from the UN, hence the Cypriots (two sides) have created their own working groups - A solution formulated by Cypriots, for the Cypriots and implemented by Cypriots. A big mistake in my opinion but time will tell

WAZ-24-7



Joined: 18/10/2008
Posts: 695

Message Posted:
31/10/2008 00:10

Some very interesting points raised than you.



The power of the EU is economic power and finance. A difficulty is that the member states seldom sgree on strategy including Cyprus which is probably quite low on the agenda.

However to be excluded from the economic benefits of EU membership can be very detrimental to any country's pecking order and economic sucess.



The South has access to the benefits of EU membership but is obliged, in return to abide by constitutional and democratic aspirations and decisions.

In simple terms play ball with the Union or follow a different path.



The North has no direct benefit but Turkey is claerly very keen to become a member.



The Union does have the clout, the finance but not enough inclination to make things happen. Perhaps the problem is not so big to matter.



Turkey is most likely in a position to influence EU member states to act because of economic aspirations and because of increasing trade liason with many of the European states.

karakum5c



Joined: 18/03/2008
Posts: 1021

Message Posted:
31/10/2008 00:20

Turkey and Greece have a far too bloody past historically for either to trust the other without a military force available. The removal of all troops will never happen but a token force of say 5/10 thousand could work.

Hector


Joined: 26/08/2008
Posts: 2352

Message Posted:
31/10/2008 00:39

Personally I think that the Turkish army really like it in NC. They have wonderful bases, right on the beach usually and safe from attack. Keeps the troops happy. They know that there is as much chance of the south invading the north as them invading the south - nil. It also suits the north economically to have the army. It also gives the UN something to do and a nice base for its troops. So basically it suits the UN, the Turkish army & the TRNC government. The TRNC government also likes the army there as it's one of it's bargaining chips for a settlement.

Turbo


Joined: 24/12/2006
Posts: 833

Message Posted:
31/10/2008 03:18

I must say that even though there is supposedly 40,000 Turkish troops in North Cyprus, they seem to be not too obvious.

Has anyone seen a "mass" of soldiers anywhere? other than when they have a parade.

They do have the camps well hidden and there is not a very obvious presence unless you go off the beaten path.

Must be the reason for the "No photography" areas, thats where they must be.

It is made to seem like the TRNC is teeming with Turkish soldiers, I found that not to be the case.

Unless they all go into hiding each time an American passport visits .

Groucho



Joined: 26/04/2008
Posts: 7993

Message Posted:
31/10/2008 06:43

I bet Google Earth shows a pretty good representation of where they can be found... makes a bit of a mockery of the no photography signs... which lets face it stop everybody from taking pictures...er not. LOL.



Should the troops go? Well their presence alone has kept the peace since 1974. I hate to think what would have transpired had they not intervened and remained. Yes the TCs often have ambiguous sentiments about the presence of Turkish troops and interference in the Government of the TRNC but, and it's a big one, they would not want them to leave before a proper deal is struck...



And I don't think they'd want a total pull-out until a substantial period of stability had ensued following any such deal either....

JimmyG


Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 900

Message Posted:
31/10/2008 12:10

I don't wish to digress from the debate on this thread as this provides evidence enough that everyone has the opportunity to voice their opinions on this board but find Wyn's observation in message 8 to be insulting, if not downright offensive to the moderators of this board who IMHO do a very good job.



Only my opinion of course Wyn

fire starter


Joined: 19/06/2008
Posts: 3401

Message Posted:
31/10/2008 12:32

turbo

we have driven into a turkish army base, when hubby decided to take a short cut.

luckily for us they were very nice about it.

we have the helicopter base in the next village to us, but it doesn't both us and we don't find them a threat.



i think both sides need to reduce the number of soldiers as a good will gesture.

following a settlement they could reduce that number year on year until only the

smallest number of troops remaind.



we were talking to some un soldiers a few weeks back, when we were using the crossing. we were surprise how little they knew about north cyprus. they don't even come north on their days off. they have very limited knowledge of the north in general. so if they ever had to do some peacekeeping i am not sure how they will be going about it. hopefully i would never come to that.

simbas



Joined: 16/07/2007
Posts: 5943

Message Posted:
31/10/2008 12:58

hi jimmyg , personally speaking and in my understanding of his post , i don't think wyn's observations had anything to do with the mods

simbas

JimmyG


Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 900

Message Posted:
31/10/2008 13:14

Hi Simbas, maybe I've misinterpreted what may have been only a flippant comment directed at other posters on this board - in which case Wyn I of course apologise.

wynyardman



Joined: 15/12/2007
Posts: 4580

Message Posted:
31/10/2008 13:26

Thank you Simbas & JimmyG No problem.



wyn

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
31/10/2008 22:37

Just looking at the CEPS survey



93% of TC's place their trust in the Turkish army. This mirrors what I have heard Talat express.

Some people on this forum have been saying that their is a backlash against the army, if so this report suggests it's a very very small minority. At the same time the report says that TC's are open to forms of non democratic rule, so being ruled by Ankara is not a major issue for many of them.