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Greek Debt Crisis. Markets dive on Greek referendum

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No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 10:52

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Message 1 of 39 in Discussion

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15533940



European markets have opened lower following yesterday's announcement of a Greek referendum on the latest aid package to solve its debt crisis.



No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
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Message Posted:
01/11/2011 10:55

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Eurozone leaders agreed a 100bn-euro (86bn; $140bn) loan to Athens and a 50% debt write-off last week.



But the announcement of a referendum has cast doubt on whether the deal will be able to go ahead.





Opinion polls in Greece suggest that most people do not support the austerity deal.



No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
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Message Posted:
01/11/2011 10:55

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Mr Papandreou told a meeting of his governing Socialist party that Greek people would have the final say on the package, which is designed to reduce Greek debt by about 100bn euros through a series of measures including public sector pay cuts, tax rises and falling pensions.



There is concern that the referendum would be unlikely to take place before January, which would create months of uncertainty for the markets



No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
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Message Posted:
01/11/2011 10:59

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Message 4 of 39 in Discussion

Where will that leave the Eurozone if the Greeks decide not to accept the aid package?



DutchCrusader



Joined: 19/05/2008
Posts: 11281

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 10:59

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Message 5 of 39 in Discussion

It's hard to "remain" or "become" pro-Greek...



dizzycows


Joined: 12/05/2009
Posts: 2736

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 11:24

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Message 6 of 39 in Discussion

Think the Greeks do need to start thinking why they have got into this bigger mess than others. They cannot keep blaming others for their mass spending in the public sector.



What they do if they decide not to take the package is suicidal, but then perhaps they should be left to 'hang themselves'.



No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
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Message Posted:
01/11/2011 11:32

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Message 7 of 39 in Discussion

I think if the Greeks vote against the aid package they will leave the Eurozone.



Could this cause the collapse of the Eurozone?



ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 11:43

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Message 8 of 39 in Discussion

I guess there are lots of connotations.



From what I understand (and I have a very very limited understanding) they have been trying to get the banks to take a voluntary haircut so as not to trigger a claiming of the credit default swaps. If Greece refuses to play ball then this will inevitably trigger the CDS's. This is likely to be a nightmare because nobody knows who owes what to whom. The only thing for sure is that when the music stops there will be some financial institutions who will be holding the parcel and probably wont be able to pay out. The banks cant really bail out the governments at the moment so no chance if they are even more cash strapped.



ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 11:45

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Message 9 of 39 in Discussion

ps and of course the government cant now bail out the banks.



Is the TC government really sure that it wants to convert to the Euro



No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
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Message Posted:
01/11/2011 12:52

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Message 10 of 39 in Discussion

Mark. I don't think the Turkish Government will hurry into this.



No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
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Message Posted:
01/11/2011 13:09

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In the lead-up to the recent IMF summit, Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, finally broke a taboo and spoke of what might happen if the eurozone foundered.



They even hinted that war could return to Europe. However, this contention lacked supporting evidence. Both Merkel and Sarkozy avoided spelling out the concrete, immediate economic effects that could arise from going back to national currencies



deputydawg


Joined: 30/03/2010
Posts: 1727

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 13:13

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Message 12 of 39 in Discussion

It seems to me that the "silenced" majority said not to give the Greeks a single Euro as they would default on repayment but what should be the electorate is never listened to. How convenient for the EU now, write off 50% of the debt then, if the remaining 50% is defaulted upon via a referendum, they can wring their hands and say "who could have predicted that " ! It also seems that Germany/Merkel believe if their agenda is not followed by all "There will be strife and war across Europe". I hope they do not intend to start a 3rd World War !



MarkVPiazza


Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 530

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 13:17

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Message 13 of 39 in Discussion

A stupid idea run by stupid people who end up with a fat inflation linked pension no matter how big the screw-up



Welcome to Euroland, where money grows on trees, and paying tax and working is optional



Visitor


Joined: 19/08/2010
Posts: 492

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 13:18

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Message 14 of 39 in Discussion

3rd world war - daft talk!



Its the French and the US as well as GB that have been pushing for a write off. The Germans are condemned either way. How stupid and ungrateful of the Greeks!



Hector


Joined: 26/08/2008
Posts: 2352

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 13:24

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Message 15 of 39 in Discussion

Why Greece must vote 'No' to the bailout terms Daily Telegraph article



http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100012911/greece-must-vote-no-to-the-bailout-terms/



theparson


Joined: 28/05/2011
Posts: 129

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 13:26

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Message 16 of 39 in Discussion

The Greeks are being pretty shrewd in my opinion. A referendum in Athens will take at least 2 months to organise, and in the meantime the crisis will only get worse. Their goal will be a 100% write off, and then they will leave the Euro and start from scratch.

You heard it first here.



MarkVPiazza


Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 530

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 13:26

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Message 17 of 39 in Discussion

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100012894/fast-cars-and-loose-fiscal-morals-there-are-more-porsches-in-greece-than-taxpayers-declaring-50000-euro-incomes/





A facinating read



No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 13:47

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Message 18 of 39 in Discussion

Theparson. You have something there.



ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 14:09

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Message 19 of 39 in Discussion

Merkel and Sarkozy have got it the wrong way round. There will not be war if the Euro fails but there is a greater chance (not a certainty) if the countries get tied closer together and nations get taxed centrally with no way out.



Just to reiterate, banks who have loaned money to Greece have taken out CDS's to protect any losses'. These CDS's have been swapped many times over. Some financial institutions are sitting on a real problem. Remember that CDS's sunk us below the waterline in 2008. This time around governments do not have the funds to bail out the financial institutions. As it happens, theparson could be write, and although Greece will suffer a lot of pain if it rejects the bailout, it may turn out to be less than some of the other EU countries notably France.



AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 14:19

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Message 20 of 39 in Discussion

Check your seat belts as you are all going to be in for a bumpy ride.

AJ



Tonyta


Joined: 11/06/2011
Posts: 122

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 14:20

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Message 21 of 39 in Discussion

It is like asking the Turkeys to vote for Xmas. They will vote no, what euro's are left in greece will be transferred to german banks by the millionaires and politicians, the greeks will leave the euro zone returning to the dracma and their economy will go back to the stoneage as no one will lend to them. The chinese will then arrive and buy up every govt utility and pay chineses wages to the greeks. What a future?



mickydrippin


Joined: 30/05/2011
Posts: 6

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 14:31

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Message 22 of 39 in Discussion

I agree with the Parson, I`ve thought this for a while now, because the Greeks will duck, dive, and weazle their way out of this predicament any way they can because they are good at it, that`s how they got into the EU and subsequently the Euro in the first place, but if they get away with this then they should not only leave the Euro but should be excluded from the EU altogether, and if the Greeks can get a 50% write off, then Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy should get the same credit write off`s also, but that`s what the powers that be in Brussels are scared of.



ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 14:37

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Message 23 of 39 in Discussion

Isn't it ironic that the European powers have put more faith in Greece than Turkey. This faith was misplaced in the 20's when France and Britain gave Greece permission to invade and carve up Turkey. And recently its faith has been misplaced when it prejudiced Greece over Turkey in matters of EU membership.



Oh how the EU has been seduced by the logic of Socrates and Aristotle, yet has behaved more like Spartans than Athenians.



Pippie


Joined: 02/12/2009
Posts: 1288

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 14:50

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Message 24 of 39 in Discussion

I wonder if Greek pulls out of the Euro if ROC will revert back to the Cyprus Pound!!



ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 14:59

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Message 25 of 39 in Discussion

msge 24



We have to see Cyprus and Greece as two separate countries. Yes they are connected by history and will share a number of cultural traits but they have their own parliaments. Of course, they have a lot of money invested in Greece, however they may have insured themselves against Greece failing. It might very well be that many British institutions have protected this debt and are the ones that are pooing themselves at the moment.



Anyway, if the talks are what we need to go by then Cyprus is not going to be voluntarily ditching the Euro.



theparson


Joined: 28/05/2011
Posts: 129

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 17:34

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Message 26 of 39 in Discussion

Most people seem to think that Turkey are pretty immune to this as past history dictates that their involvement financially with Greece will be minimal BUT, the Turkish Banks may be holding some of this toxic debt via third party banks or institutions, and they may get dragged into the mire as well.

Lets hope not.



Brinsley


Joined: 04/04/2009
Posts: 6858

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 17:38

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Message 27 of 39 in Discussion

Buy 'short' on S&P 500!



Richard



marks


Joined: 01/11/2011
Posts: 83

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 18:29

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Message 28 of 39 in Discussion

Greece should vote no and go back to their drachma, yes it will be painful but they will survive. Economists are like drama queens, you would think armageddon was iminent, so over the top.



Tonyta


Joined: 11/06/2011
Posts: 122

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 18:32

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Message 29 of 39 in Discussion

One reason why there will not be a Greek referendum: a referendum bill must be passed by three-fifths of the Greek parliament and the government's majority has gone or as good as.



MarkVPiazza


Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 530

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 19:40

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Message 30 of 39 in Discussion

Sounds like the Greek PM has lost his bottle - no doubt he'll be lining himself a nice Kinnock-type number working for the EU ;)



greylag


Joined: 08/04/2009
Posts: 1110

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 19:49

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Message 31 of 39 in Discussion

Re-mess 29,



There is going to be a referendum,



Grey.



Tonyta


Joined: 11/06/2011
Posts: 122

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 19:53

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Message 32 of 39 in Discussion

Message 31



Greek constitution: http://www.hri.org/docs/syntagma/artcl50.html Article 44 suggests no referenda on fiscal matters. Also needs 3/5ths of parliament. No chance, opposition already saying he is wrong and cabinet ministers leaving in droves.



greylag


Joined: 08/04/2009
Posts: 1110

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 20:01

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Message 33 of 39 in Discussion

Apologies mess 32.When i saw the earlier news the said that a referendum was on,



Grey.



dvdjohn


Joined: 27/10/2011
Posts: 128

Message Posted:
01/11/2011 20:12

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Message 34 of 39 in Discussion

What will happen if there is a vote in Greece and the answer is NO.



Will commi Chris still want the presidency of the EU ?? or will he retire into the backroom to rethink the solution and try to come up with something that the EU will not support but the UN my do??



I away the vote.



Personally I await the return of the Greek pound and maybe get rid of the Kilo. and return to how the Island used to be. IE 3.5 Gr pounds with 35 lovely choices of food most being hot. If this happens the restaurant to try is the Plaka in Nicosia not far from Alphamaga. you get garlic snails in the pilaf. WONDERFUL. But at the moment a meal at the Plaka will cost you 35 euros.



BizziLizzi


Joined: 02/08/2011
Posts: 855

Message Posted:
02/11/2011 00:09

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Message 35 of 39 in Discussion

Pounds weight of pounds currency John? The Greek currency (pre Euro) was the Dracma , Cyprus (pre 74 in the Island,pr Euro in the South) was the Cyprus pound.



Weight , oops I forget, wasnt is something like "Okra"?



BizziLizzi


Joined: 02/08/2011
Posts: 855

Message Posted:
02/11/2011 00:11

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Message 36 of 39 in Discussion

Well.........at least the Greek people are getting a referendum on their financial future. More than we British get!



Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
02/11/2011 01:02

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Message 37 of 39 in Discussion

Msg 35,



It's drachma, Bizzi! ( both currency and weight)

Not dracma or okra.



Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
02/11/2011 01:13

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Message 38 of 39 in Discussion



Angela Merkel was called a real Prime Minister of Greece.



Nice!



marks


Joined: 01/11/2011
Posts: 83

Message Posted:
02/11/2011 07:41

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Message 39 of 39 in Discussion

What a lot of people fail to understand is that Germany is simply taking over the European Union, the Germans could not win with bullets and bombs so they are taking over fiscally and economically, the sooner the Eurozone has collapsed the better.



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