The president nails his colours to the mast

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 21:07

http://www.sundayszaman.com/sunday/newsDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=263914



Two states it is then,



Paul.

Turtle


Joined: 28/05/2007
Posts: 2669

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 21:12

Since when was David Milliband the foreign secretary ?

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 21:23

Eyes like a shit house rat,Tats.Good to see thay you are paying attention,



Paul.

Turtle


Joined: 28/05/2007
Posts: 2669

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 21:24

I agree though,.... 2 states it is then

steve.sewell


Joined: 07/11/2011
Posts: 277

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 21:27

Newlad



If it did stay two states does that mean north cyprus remains the occupied part in the eyes of the world? or will things change, although i still believe cyprus will be united i don't fully understand what happens if it doesn't, if an agreement is not reached does north cyprus still have all the same problems.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 21:29

N.C.could become the 82nd state,Steve,



Paul.

steve.sewell


Joined: 07/11/2011
Posts: 277

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 21:40

Newlad



But both sides have said its in the interest of the island, and seem keen to get it sorted, every cypriot must know this. Would the trnc loose its own government, and what kind of change is to be expected if it becomes a state of turkey, and will this be seen as legal by the world.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 22:03

Steve,



There will be a referendum,on the re-unification of the island.The South will vote no,as 2004,



Paul.

steve.sewell


Joined: 07/11/2011
Posts: 277

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 22:22

paul



Yes i know that, what i'm not clear on 100% is what happens if they vote against it, does the trnc become this 82nd state which is recognised by the world, or do things remain the same as they are now.



Sorry mate i may be being a bit thick here.

Turtle


Joined: 28/05/2007
Posts: 2669

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 22:53

I would imagine when the UN decide its futile to spend anymore time (which they have hinted at already) talking about re-unification and at that time they decide to walk away I guess they would anounce to the world that the only solution is to have 2 seperate entities and the world should accept that.



Whether that is 2 states or 2 countries remains to be seen but if they decide enough is enough then thats it.



Im guessing if the ROC kick off and wont allow this to happen the UN and wider world would recognise the TRNC as independant and respect it as such.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 23:04

Steve,



Not a case of being thick mate,its a very complex situation."What happens if they vote against it" i am assuming here, that you mean the South vote against re-unification.Steve, is the pope a catholic,thats how sure i am that the Greek Cypriots will vote no.I personally think that Northern Cyprus will be enveloped by Turkey,so two states will be formed,



Paul.

steve.sewell


Joined: 07/11/2011
Posts: 277

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 23:37

Thanks



so i guess if that was the case things will stay as they are for a while yet. I got it wrong i thought all cypriots from both sides vote together.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 23:53

Hi Steve,



Things should change after the floating presidency in July,



Paul.

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 23:57

Re: Msg 1,

"He also noted that after that time, Turkey will not take on any responsibility and the UK will have to recognize Turkish Cyprus as Turkey does."



This speech must be very impressive for Anatolian peasants...

steve.sewell


Joined: 07/11/2011
Posts: 277

Message Posted:
28/11/2011 00:09

Why england and not the world?



Will i still need to go through residency process.

brother



Joined: 29/01/2010
Posts: 446

Message Posted:
28/11/2011 00:35

My understanding of his "...and the two-state structure on the island will continue" is that KKTC will continue. As to whether it is internationally recognised as such is another thing.

Erkin


Joined: 15/06/2011
Posts: 339

Message Posted:
28/11/2011 09:50

MSG 15:

The Pressure on UK the recognise the TRNC is a MUST in order for the 5 UN permanent member states to allow TRNC to be recognised, as UK is one of the 5 permanent members of the UN security council, Any motion put forward in the UN security council by the UK government, is more likely for other permanent member states to agree to the existence of TRNC. (France-UK-USA-Russia and China) if any motion is put forward will likely get NO from China and Russia which means the UK will have to call on France and the USA to back the plan. There are 5 permanent and 10 rotating members, as the UN security mandate requires 9 out of the 15 states to agree but out of the 9 required, you need 3 of them to be a permanent members.







The chances of TRNC becoming 82nd state of the R.O.T is very slim, as it will isolate Turkey from the E.U completely.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
29/11/2011 22:39

Slim but possible Erkin,



Paul.

waddo


Joined: 29/11/2008
Posts: 1966

Message Posted:
30/11/2011 09:21

Again the question then - as the whole of the Island is in the EU, would it remain so if one part became a part of Turkey? OR If one part of the Island became a part of Turkey would the whole Island then be cast out of the EU and the non Turkish part have to apply for membership again? OR If the Turkish part remained within the EU would that now be a small part of Turkey already in the EU?



I do not think that Turkey actually wants to join the EU so that it can bail out other country's like Greece for instance - those two can not even be polite to each other so the chance of getting Turkey to agree to help them has got to be very slim indeed.



I do find it strange that the UK and Turkey (as two of the three guarantor powers) will discuss this issue yet there never seems to be any sort of discussion between all three of the powers! That probably sets the scene for what will happen in 2012 as well - the same thing that has happened since 1974.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
30/11/2011 12:08

Wouldnt Turkey just envelop Northern Cyprus Waddo,if Northern Cyprus never became the 82nd state,



Paul.

steve.sewell


Joined: 07/11/2011
Posts: 277

Message Posted:
30/11/2011 13:01

Would this mean things will stay as they are.

Turtle


Joined: 28/05/2007
Posts: 2669

Message Posted:
30/11/2011 20:59

What will happen when the UN walk away ?

waddo


Joined: 29/11/2008
Posts: 1966

Message Posted:
30/11/2011 21:09

Turkey is one of the guarantor powers so I don't see how it could just envelop North Cyprus without the other two - well one of them anyway - putting up a strong protest! I think if that was going to happen then it would have happened a lot earlier like about 1980-ish.



Now it is in (Turkey) a very strange position - its loyalty to its people playing the strongest role yet wanting to end the problem so it (Turkey) can get on with its own agenda in the rest of the world.



The other two powers are more than happy just to sit back and watch so they can not be accused of interferance and nobody would ever be able to point at them.



Sad.

Biggles


Joined: 14/06/2009
Posts: 165

Message Posted:
30/11/2011 21:28

Re: message 5. 'I still believe Cyprus will be re untoed' Do you really think so?

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
30/11/2011 21:38

regarding the article nowhere does gul refer to an 82nd province,

but only to a permanently partitioned "two-state" cyprus



there an understandable yearning by some on the forum, to see

the north run more efficiently and to modernise and this is manifest

as a suggestion to reunify (in my book an island under the control

of a greek cypriot majority whom we assume are happy to devolve

some of their powers ...and have shelved their dreams of "enosis")



...or instead to be "sorted out" by turkey directly, i.e. annexed



idealism aside, in my book both scenarios are vanishingly unlikely:

in particular turkey would draw down upon itself the wrath of the

"international community" if they get time to think of any more

than their finncial crisis that is, for little tangible gain



no, rather look to other relevant examples in the region instead:

a lebanon only nominally independent of syria,

and mini-statelets abkhasia, south ossetia, transdinestria

steve.sewell


Joined: 07/11/2011
Posts: 277

Message Posted:
30/11/2011 21:43

Biggles



To be honest even though it has always seemed to me its the only way forward, i am now very uncertain, and very confused about new things which have been brought to my attention. I have been told by what i believe to be a good source that there will be no change this time around. But my head tells me one day someone will step in and sort it out, time will tell, i'm watching this subject very closely.

Turtle


Joined: 28/05/2007
Posts: 2669

Message Posted:
30/11/2011 21:52

After nearly 38 yrs it does beg the question have they really got any common ground ?

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
30/11/2011 22:00

steve,



surely someone big did and may well step in at some

...but rather in the sense of stepping in something

and hitting dog dirt rather than pay dirt:



a technical term is an "onerous froreign entanglement"



you might argue the gas bonanza will shake things up,

but my pet theory is de-facto zones of influence will

be divided up amidst all the huff and puff

Biggles


Joined: 14/06/2009
Posts: 165

Message Posted:
01/12/2011 19:13

Re message 26

Personally, I do not see it happening. We need a 2 state, 1 island solution. And the sooner the better, the south side hate the northerners! We have had our car spat at, damaged, (bent Aeriel) and other treatment, once they know we live on the north side!

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
01/12/2011 19:23

Sounds like England Biggles,the North South divide.Can only see either two state or Taiwan,



Paul.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
01/12/2011 19:28

http://www.hri.org/news/cyprus/cna/2011/11-12-01_1.cna.html#01



Update,



Paul.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
01/12/2011 20:19

the un is in an unviable position:



having been a party to organising the "independence" constitution in 1959,

that embodied a measure of power-sharing



and the abortive 2004 proposals where un officials attempted to fill in the

gaps, mostly where the gc's were unhappy I believe...

their current role is purely facilitator where the responsibility lies with the

cypriots and one "backer"



the un would argue I suppose that should any agreement be reached, it is

far more likely to be "owned" by cypriots than the two earlier attempts



but two underlying problems still remain:



firstly, what is on offer by each side is quite unacceptable to the other side



secondly a slim majority of punters on cyprus 44 even at this eleventh hour

still see the island as benefitting from "reunification" without either any

realistic notion of what an agreement might mean for them, and deprived

probably by wishful thinking of a real chance of "success"...as they'd call it

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
01/12/2011 20:42

Re-mess 32,



"even at this eleventh hour" My god there has been a few of thiose over the years.Are you suggesting,Andre,that this farce is reaching its conclusion,



Paul.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
01/12/2011 21:28

no paul, my comment was entirely tongue in cheek, sorry to take the mick



....while to reach a conclusion, you need to have actually begun something



I have never been convinced that either side ever "want" what the other is

proposing not even in the heady days of late 2008, with rotating presidents

and a mysterious process where confederation became a single federation



...needless to say there has been furious backpeddling on even these tiny

flickers of agreement since then



all we are left with are marshmallow-like comments from downer,

exhortations from bank-i-moon and turkey vetoed from an eu syria meeting

steve.sewell


Joined: 07/11/2011
Posts: 277

Message Posted:
01/12/2011 22:18

paul



there's not a north south problem in the uk is there, just friendly banter.



Andre



Your right its about understanding how changes will effect the people and ex pats, no one has a clue.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
01/12/2011 22:36

Not sure Steve,theres some dodgy beggars round Watford way,lol.



"marshmallow like comments" lovely turn of phrase Andre,



Paul.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
02/12/2011 15:46

message 35:



your posting last line "...how changes will affect the people and ex pats..."



will?



perhaps you know something we don't