Will Russia go the way of many Middle East/North African Countries ?

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 14:04

And succumb to a popular uprising ? After rigged elections by Putin's henchmen , The United Russia Party , street protests are being organised and popular dissent is gaining ground ! Credible reports of illegal ballots and other election fraud are widespread and have been condemned by independent international observers ! Will these dictators never learn ? Are we on the brink of real democracy in Russia ?

LaptaMike


Joined: 07/10/2009
Posts: 1679

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 14:06

'real democracy in russia'



I doubt it mate ;-)

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 14:22

msge 1



Its an interesting situation.

The Russians are waking up to the fact they have a vain and manipulative man in charge of their country. The trouble is that Putin cant possibly allow a free society, for if he did, the press would take him to the cleaners. They would reveal all his dirty little deals.

He is already blaming the West for the uprising, trying to take the focus away from him. He will probably feel that he has no option but to crush this uprising.

You have to admire the Russian people. It cant be much fun protesting in that cold weather. Same old story, the wealth generated by the oil and gas has gone in to the hands of the few, leaving the many in the cold.



Putin did his job, which was to create stability after Yeltsin, but it is now time for him to step down.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 14:23

ps I think it is something like 25% of Russians want to or are leaving the country. They will suffer from a brain drain.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 15:28

msge 4



Correction



25% of youngsters

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 16:20

If you lose your young people, you lose your future !

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 16:29

msge 6



That's exactly it EamonnMc. Its a big problem. Many young Russians have now travelled abroad and contrast it with their homeland.

Russia has not diversified its economy. It has relied on its resources to create it's wealth, however it has bullied those that rely on its gas and has been an unreliable trading partner.



The Russians produce world class scientists but they are emigrating. Two Russian scientists based at Manchester university invented graphene which is now going to make the UK a lot of money. I believe Osborne has just given 50 million pounds to further develop the application of this wonder product.

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 17:21

They really are exporting their greatest asset...their best people !

TheSaints



Joined: 28/01/2009
Posts: 1369

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 17:27

There are only protests in Moscow and only approximately 12,000 people a tiny fraction of the population of Moscow were there how do I know I was there on both days, very few arrests and very little confrontation as I am living and working in Russia right now.

We have over 4,000 people working on this project I am on and we have employed a lot of young people, the young people are quite proud of their country and although they want change they see it coming through them.

25% leaving or trying to leave out of a population of over 142 million you really are out of touch with reality and what life is actually like in Russia.

As usual another load of misinformed drivel

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 17:42

msge 9



Our understanding in the UK is that 50,000 people have gathered in Moscow to protest.

We have also been informed that protests have taken place on in St Petersburg and other cities.



And yes 50,000 is a very small % of the population.

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 17:49

The protests in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt etc started with small gatherings but grew enormously to reflect the widespread discontent felt by the ordinary people .

TheSaints



Joined: 28/01/2009
Posts: 1369

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 17:55

Your understanding? well here are some facts so you can understand.



Fact no protests have taken place anywhere else in Russia other than Moscow to date, my son is in Uni in St Pete and the tried to get the students to protest but they were not interested as they stated it was not for the right reasons (what ever that means) he also said there was no one on the streets. As for Moscow estimated attendance of 12,000 let's say 15K to allow for exaggeration by international media most definitely not 50k.



International TV news will try to make it look worse as they always do and then let the gullible digest the tripe and comment on it as though they are the righteous.

canada


Joined: 17/05/2011
Posts: 195

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 18:05

american propaganda thats all ,they see a mouse and they say its an elephant

fox news in the usa showed a small amount of protesters in moscow and followed with a clip of the riots in greece saying it was in russia .

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 18:09

msge 12



The saints





Why did your son attempt to get people to protest?

TheSaints



Joined: 28/01/2009
Posts: 1369

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 18:19

There is a typo it does not say he it says the instead of they, they being supposed youth political party members for the opposition party that tried to get the students to protest, my son did say that they seemed quite old to be part of the youth political group of any party.

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 18:24

BBC News are reporting biggest protests in Moscow since the fall of the USSR...Police put the number at 25,000 while protesters say 100,000. In St Petersburg, police put the number protesting at 10,000 with reports of further protests throughout Russia. Saints, maybe your son needs to get out more !

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 18:28

Thank you for the update Saints.

I can only go on what I read and see in the UK press. I have clearly been misinformed about what is going on in Russia. It would seem that there is only a very very small minority of protesters and the overwhelming majority of young Russians are extremely proud of their nation.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 18:44

I just watched this clip from Russia today. It would definitely seem that the Western press is stirring this up.



http://rt.com/news/duma-reelection-moscow-rally-467/

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 18:57

Msg 18,



Got my information from BBC News World..... there is a video and a report from their Russian Correspondent. Am unable to post link....unfortunately !

TheSaints



Joined: 28/01/2009
Posts: 1369

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 19:10

Msg 19



I got my information from walking from the London pub just outside Red square, along to New Arbot then by car through the city as far as Izmailova, back through the city to Domodedova airport and then flew back to Nizhny Novgorod.

Local news reporting much lower numbers than the BBC web site which I have looked at too, checked with a couple of work mates on projects in the Far East of Russia, small turnout in Vladivostok did not make the local news.

St pete again not totally exaggerated apparently there was a token demo by a couple of thousand people which fizzled out in less than an hour a couple of old guys gave a speech and then everyone left, BBC did not show a video of that then.

You sit in your arm chair and digest the tripe you are being fed and I will believe what I see in the country I am in at the moment Russia.

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 19:28

Msg 20,



Since you were not in St. Petersburg, you believe what the Russian media reports. Well , sorry Saints but I prefer to believe the BBC. You stated as fact in msg 12 that there were no protests in Russia outside of Moscow.....You were wrong as was your son ! Perhaps you spent too long in the London Pub and believed what the Russian media was telling you as you sat on your comfortable bar stool !

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 19:31

msge 19



I guess we have to recognise that there are still old tensions and relative mistrust between the West and Russia. Some within each side look to discredit the other. In this instance I accept that I have been too quick to jump to conclusions.



My reference for some of my comments were from Sir Tony Brenton who was the British Ambassador to Moscow 2004-2008. He said "People are leaving the country in droves". This lined up with an article I read about a young Russian couple who are moving to Canada. Their complaint was that people in public jobs are always rude. They said this lack of respect had worn them down. The same article stated that 25% of Russians were in the process of leaving. I was also aware that the two university professors were highly critical of conditions in Russia.



My other reference was Edward Lucas who is the author of 'The New Cold war'



But the key is I do not live in Russia, so I dont really know what is going on. I can only speculate.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 19:41

msge 22



Correction



Same mistake as before. Should have written "25% of young Russians"

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 19:56

My comments about Putin were based on



Vain- That it would appear that he has recently had botox treatments. I concede that this is not a crime



Manipulative - Of course, he may not have engineered it so that Medvedev passed back the Presidency back to him.



We can probably conclude that the booing on this site is aimed at the American not Putin



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nS48UuVXbjQ

Quarmby


Joined: 15/09/2008
Posts: 975

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 20:18

Wasn't Putin in the KGB? Once a Communist! He will never change. I fear another Assad.

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 20:25

Msg 25,



I agree, it could turn very nasty !

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 20:59

The comments made by Sir Tony Bretton the former Ambassador to Russia line up with the political commentator (Alexhi Mukhin) on the you tube slide on msge 24. The commentator states that more people are getting their news from the internet rather than state TV.



Sir Tony Bratton says "People are abandoning state controlled television to get their news from the internet, which is rife with stories of official malfeasance"



We have to be cautious Sir Tony may have an axe to grind.

We may also be able to say with reasonable certainty that he speaks Russian. He probably has access to the internet but we do not know for sure if he is following events on the Russian internet.

rowlo



Joined: 12/10/2008
Posts: 4796

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 21:56

do you think the YANKS will invade them any time soon ?

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 22:22

Apparently General Patton has come back from the dead to lead the attack

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 22:25

I'd prefer General "Stormin' Norman myself !

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 22:29

That old boy knows how to kick arse

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
10/12/2011 23:30

message 1



if we knew which way the arab spring will go

it might be possible to work out where the russian protests may end up



presently it looks as if anything resembling free elections in north africa

tends to produce a conservative muslim government:

though it could also be argued this is partly the result of the suppression

of legitimate secular politics, during decades of authoritarian rule



the number of successful revolutions in north africa/the arab world

only stands at 2 with the regime in cairo still mostly in power,

hardly the "many" of your title ...though discontent is widespread



regarding russia, putin was originally seen as a patriot and stabilising

influence though his party "united russia" became a refuge for

opportunists and self-servers



the kremlin will try hard to maintain an image of "business as usual"

and label protests as foreign-inspired, this is to isolate the protesters and

continues soviet news management traditions

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 00:25

" the kremlin will try hard to maintain an image of "business as usual"



and label protests as foreign-inspired, this is to isolate the protesters and



continues soviet news management traditions"



Yes Andre,

I expect Putin will hope that he can garner enough personal support (of which he still has many) and that the protests will run out of steam. I observe Putin to be more savvy than your average autocratic, so I am sure he has got some tricks up his sleeves. If the protests get bigger and stronger though it would be interesting to see how he acts. I think image is everything to this guy, so I think he would stand down if he can cover his tracks and maintain a certain amount of power.



Anyway, it seems that he would have won the election with or without ballot tampering, so it might be a smart move for him to call another election. It would help if he did this quickly.

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 18:34

If he would have won anyway, why tamper with the ballot ? He was afraid of losing and even if he ( wins) ? He will end up as a loser, they all do !! it's the fate of all dictators !!

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 18:53

Putin has announced today that he had ordered "an investigation" into allegations of ballot tampering.

Everyone in Russia knows the outcome of such "investigations".

People will be threatened, beaten up, will lose their jobs, students will be thrown from the universities,

activists will be pronounced American spies and will be thrown to prisons, and journalists who dare say otherwise will be gunned down in dark narrow alleys of Moscow.



This is the 'democracy' Putin style.

katjusha


Joined: 21/06/2010
Posts: 226

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 19:01

My family lives in Moscow now and hardly any protests there at all, obviously America is driving anti Russian propaganda, and they are using videos with protests from other coutries for this. Everyone in Russia knows it anyway.

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 19:12

Msg 36,



"There are none so blind...as those who will not see " ! The oldest excuse is rolled out once again.i.e." It's a conspiracy by the Capitalists / Communists/ Anarchists/ etc to undermine our great country " Sad ! Sad ! Sad!!

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 19:20

clarissa,



medvedev ordered the investigation, the president acts as the nice cop of the regime



difficult to have much faith in this when one expert reckons united russia would have

only got 25 percent rather than the 50 percent without all the hanky panky:

most troublesome opponents are in jail, dead, fled overseas or have sold out to the system



having said that, putin could be the force for stability that many russians still hope for

...the corrupt yeltsin entourage and hyperinflation chaos of the late eighties and early nineties

is something few wish to see ever again



putin described the break-up of the soviet union as "the greatest catastrophe in human history"

and apart from afghanistan, it's death was partly due to the Era of Stagnation under brezhnev



it is ironic that the swelling number of protesters see stagnation, with putin set to be re-elected

twice more, as once again menacing the russian dream of freedom and happiness

katjusha


Joined: 21/06/2010
Posts: 226

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 19:21

ms37, Leaving in Dublin you know all about Russia of course! I am telling the facts from people who live and work in city center. If there were 500000 people protesting, I think they would be definately noticed. And you are just assuming the people who walk through main city center every day don't see them! It does not make any sense.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 19:48

making snide comments about foreign countries is as easy as taking candy from a baby,

but would you class my comments in message 38 as unreasonable, katyusha?

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 19:50

msg 39,



Wherever I live does not matter...unfortunately for dictators the world is a smaller place and their oppression does not go unnoticed, what with the internet, video phones, facebook/twitter and other forms of communication readily available to the masses, the real truth can no longer be hidden by the corrupt organs of the State ! Thousands of people protesting in temperatures approaching -25 , says more than words, ever can !

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 20:12

Re: Msg39,

I agree, in modern age it is impossible to hide protests of thousands of people.

Kremlin sounds rather pathetic in its attempt to cover it up and to say in the best Stalinist traditions that they are staged by America.

So it means that the news agencies all over the world showing the protests from Moscow are corrupt! And who would believe that?



We are now in 2011, not 1933, after all!

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 20:19

Re: Msg 42,

Error:It should read Re: Msg 41 ( EamonnMc)

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 20:27

Clarrissa 2,



Well said, totally agree !

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 20:52

msge 34



If he would have won anyway, why tamper with the ballot?



He may have become unsettled by the recent critiques and may have wanted to stack the deck. I have heard conflicting reports on his popularity. At the time of writing I heard that it was high (which it may still be) I don’t see him as a typical Middle Eastern autocrat. He won’t be ignoring public opinion, he will be keenly tuned in to it.



Another reason for tampering may have been, because he simply could. A whole apparatus, a modus operandi has been left in place from the Soviet Era. It may have been easy to tap in to this. He has though underestimated the impact of social media.



I think we need to be careful. Russia has always taken a different path from the West. People have been used to a form of autocratic rule, so the move to change may not fully exist in the entire system. As TheSaints quite rightly pointed out, Russia is a country of 142 million people and many will still be sensitive to the Yeltsin

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 20:53

sensitive to the Yeltsin chaos (which Andre has pointed out)

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 20:58

ps I read today that Putin may try and distance himself from the United Party. Not sure how he would do this though, but if he can, this might be a smart move.

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 21:04

Ilovecyprus, The bottom line is that he still wants power and no mealy words can hide the fact !

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 21:20

msge 48



EamonnMc



"The bottom line is that he still wants power and no mealy words can hide the fact !"



I don't think we have any disagreement here. I totally agree he does want power.

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 21:30

Ilovecyprus,

And he will trample on everyone's rights to get his way !! Same old ! Same old ! the Leopard never changes his spots !

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 21:45

msge 50



"And he will trample on everyone's rights to get his way !!



Probably, but he is no Assad or Gaddafi. Assad and Gaddafi ran feudalistic systems who were quite prepared to slaughter large numbers of their own people. Putin is no angel but I believe he does recognise that his power is only dependent on how he is perceived.

He is in new territory and people have rumbled his game. Lets wait and see how he reacts.

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 21:57

Re: Msg50,

Putin is no better than Assad or Gaddafi, he is a despotic dictator, KGB spy and a Stalinist.

His power is based on suppression, something he knows very well.

His popularity dwindled, hence the tampering of the election results.

We have already seen his immediate reaction: he is trying to cover it up, to marginalise the protesters and to eliminate the opponents.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 22:20

msge 52



I have already stated that he is no angel. I have already stated that he has used the apparatus of the Soviet system, which I know includes incarcerating opponents and muting the press.



Would he order troops to kill Russians on the street? I don't believe that he would, but I have got many things wrong before.

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 22:46

Re: Msg 53,

"Would he order troops to kill Russians on the street?"



As I wrote earlier, he doesn't have to kill them on the streets, they will be dealt with separately, people will be arrested, incarcerated, beaten up, others will be threatened.

Then through his propaganda machine he'll marginalise the rest of them. As you can see it works already: some Russians are already saying that there are no protests, the rest of the world is imagining this; or the protesters are all spies paid by the CIA etc. etc.

His only problem is the access of population to information via internet. But this also could be dealt with by imposing censorship like in China, Myanmar or Turkey.

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 23:14

Putin wants to be the new Czar ! His ambition is to rule by decree !

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
11/12/2011 23:47

Lets see what happens



Cognitively I believe Putin may have some capacity to change, what he is short of are strategies. He has been bought up in the KGB system so this is all he knows.



He chose to abide by constitutional norms and stood down four years ago, just at the point of his highest ratings. Most autocrats would not have stood down, so there is some hope, even if it is only a small spark.

katjusha


Joined: 21/06/2010
Posts: 226

Message Posted:
12/12/2011 00:47

None of politicians is perfect, regarding message 42 I think not all the news agencies are getting the right information, and some kind of corruption is all over the world, Americans know why. I am not saying Putin is perfect either. The protest have been all other the world, In Greece, in Italy, and I am sure the protests in Russia are being shown from a wrong side. Reg mes 55 that Putin wants to be new Czar, doesn't make any sense.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
12/12/2011 01:54

there is a sense of everyone getting on their "high horse" to point out

the many failings of russian democracy, apparently of far greater

interest than the gerrymandering in the d.r.congo



but looked at from another angle, europe is desperate for energy

and this is one reason why france and germany have their "russia first"

policy ie not to upset russia as far as possible



from the perspective of the anglo-saxons, america still chases the

ghost of a partnership, in their struggle to keep central asia free from

the grip of jihadists and salafi elements



putin is the architype strong leader, and who knows whether the

divisions this covers up would not wreck russia more decisively than a

few ballot boxes stuffed, a couple of media networks maligned and one

or two opposition figures inconvenienced by the courts?



russian people enjoyed years of economic advance, freedom to travel

and a limited chance to crticise the system:



but do they face stagnation?

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
12/12/2011 02:41

Re: Msg 58,

andre 514,

Please understand, there has never been a democracy in Russia.

Yes, they enjoyed economic boom caused by high prices on oil and gas, the benefits of which has never been invested back into society.

What do they face now? Endemic corruption, broken society and dire living standards.



No wonder the protesters call the ruling elite "thieves and swindlers".

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
12/12/2011 03:36

Msg 57,



"Putin wants to be the next Czar doesn't make sense".....he wants to rule like a Czar, answerable to no one ...that's the point ! He is not a democrat and the Russian people know it !!

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
12/12/2011 12:34

message 59,



one good reason for calling recently-elected members of the duma "thieves and swindlers"

is that according to our biased media around half have a criminal conviction of some sort



"inconvenienced by the courts" should include kodakovsky, now serving twenty years in a

siberian prison on dubious charges, rather than serving as president of russia



as regards democracy, bear in mind the west has an elective system which is indirect:

more to the point most of these countries can also afford a large measure of liberalism



there was indeed an open political system during the first world war under kerensky:

where in contradiction to a j p taylor's remark about bolsheviks being revolutionaries

because they never get elected, one v i lenin was an elected deputy



...oh my giddy aunt

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
12/12/2011 13:37

There might be a much simpler explanation to explain what is going on here which is......."the seven year itch".



Research shows that large numbers of people need to experience a change once every seven years. Every politician is going to have a challenge staying fresh under these conditions. The threshold for change used to be much longer, for many it was 15-25 years (most got too old to do anything about it), but in this fast paced globalised world, it would seem that many (particularly youngsters) are getting impatient for some type of change after only two years.

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
12/12/2011 15:45

The Young are always impatient, it goes with the territory !

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
12/12/2011 17:17

msge 63



Are you mixing up impulsiveness with impatience? Impulsive - to act on impulse rather than thought. All kids throughout the ages are likely to be guilty of this. Although we can all act impulsively at times.



Ambition is a key driver for many of today's youngsters (not all). Hierarchy is not seen as impediment to progress, so yes, one will be impatient to progress. But this was not always so. People once knew their place. Strict hierarchies were once the norm, where ambition was frowned upon and you were rewarded for your length of service. Patience was a key virtue.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
12/12/2011 17:18

msge 64



Correction



not rewarded on merit but on the length of your service.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
15/12/2011 21:31

My optimism in that Putin could change looks like it was naively misplaced.



He today totally denied that there were any wrongdoings in the election, blamed the opposition for trying to stir the pot and implicated the Americans in this plot. He believes very strongly that the election results reflect the political leanings of the country.



He did say though that the protesters acted lawfully at the weekend. Will he still agree when they protest next week?



Be good to get the views of those living in Russia or Russians living in TRNC

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 00:38

Re: Msg66,

"My optimism in that Putin could change looks like it was naively misplaced"



I'm pleased you have admitted it, Douglas.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 12:08

for western values,

there can be something worse than putin or even his beastly syrian

pal, assad



this is the disintegration of a state into fighting militias:

think lebanese war think somalia think liberia and many others



and in some ways even poor old cyprus between the collapse

of power-sharing in 1963 and the turkish landings, ...or so I'm told



I'm not exonerating the bare-chested russian macho-man/ex-professer

with his so-called "managed democracy"

but while idealism is cherished the end-result of attempted regime

change does not always yield entirely "favourable" results



oh back in the eighteen nineties an annoyed britain threatened

to send a gunboat to tangier and the local ruler fell over himself

to apologise for some remark or other



'course mr putin needs to add "russian patriot" to his c.v. hence his

navy manoevers in the north sea, and the anchoring of the 65k tonne

aircraft-carrier "admiral kuznetsov" barely twenty miles offshore

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 12:45

msge 68



ander



Yes, Unlike many dictators he would seemingly be a loyal flag waver as well as a fervent craver of privilege and power. He emerged in symbiosis with the Russian system as it has stood and presently stands. But the sands may be shifting.



When the people accept the they have a one up one down relationship with their leader then they comply fearfully, but when they find their self direction, independence and autonomy the relationship starts to change. Finding like minded souls through the internet shifts the power balance The power switches and the Leader can often become the led, no longer playing solo but having to play the tune of the people.



Did Cameron feel he was the leader of the Conservative party last week in Brussels or was he playing the tune of his backbenchers?



Russia could get messy

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 15:27

Russia has a corrupt government, a corrupt judiciary that is not independent, a corrupt and state controlled media and doubtless things will get worse under Putin !

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 16:26

oh yes eamonn this is all too obvious, and described tielessly in the western media



but countries like russia and china too for that matter, are big contenders, and have

to be approached thoughtfully because:



firstly the liberal, open west is powerless to change anything much by self-righteous

cheap (ie free of charge) rhetoric, however well-intentioned



secondly actually helping the democratic opposition is not without its costs, be they

trade, political or financial: remember those resin radio "stones" in st petersburg?



thirdly, millions in the west go hungry, lost their job or are canon fodder fighting for

freedom however it is interpreted



...but perhaps though it is our trying to set an example that rattles them most of all

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 17:08

All dictators are on borrowed time as they struggle to control the aspirations of their own people ! One of the huge benefits of the modern means of communication is that it is very difficult to circumvent and so is readily available to most, either directly or indirectly !!

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 17:17

eammon you seem very fond of cliches



firstly the biggest nightmare is where the people are hopelessly divided,

this is one reason revolutions often go very badly wrong



secondly many dictators are longer in power than their democratic equivalents

...and can sometimes pass the baton to sons or members of their entourage



thirdly you seem to have put mr putin in your box labelled "dictators" without

really accounting for his very significant, although waning, popular support

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 17:36

Andre514,



Putin and his henchmen have used the corrupt judiciary to stifle any opposition ! They have murdered journalists and imprisoned civil rights activists ! These are not cliches, these are facts ! The fact that some dictators have been in power longer that democrats is for the Very Reason they they are dictators ! They suppress all opposition, trample all over the rights of their fellow countrymen , enrich themselves and their cronies by means of graft, backhanders and robbery of their country's wealth ! And here's another cliche for you...."Power corrupts but absolute power corrupts, absolutely " !

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 21:42

As predicted in Msg 54, I'm reading now that Kremlin staged 'denial-of-service' attacks on key websites, with "application unreachable" online messages.



They also flooded Twitter with thousands of false accounts.



Thousands of phone lines are blocked or paralysed by endless calls featuring a recorded femail voice:

"Putin does everything for you. Without Putin, life has no meaning. Putin is your protector."

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 21:46

msge 75



That's bad news.



You were right.

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 21:48

What sick propaganda ! Truly a product of a warped mind !

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 22:01

Re: Msg 76,



Also a very interesting interview of Garry Kasparov to the Telegraph this week , where he calls Putin a "petty thief and gangster, who operates like Al Capone".



"Putin has all the traits of a dictator, but he is different; he is , in essence, an oligarch. What he really wants is to rule like Stalin while living like Abramovich".

EamonnMc


Joined: 18/06/2010
Posts: 1019

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 22:09

I can hear the chant already, "Stalin for Chelsea " LOl.

rowlo



Joined: 12/10/2008
Posts: 4796

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 22:15

and he probably sits back and laughs when the USA & UK ,invade all and sundry for a few drops of oil ? comrade pass me another cuban cigar & large vodka , stirred not shaken , there's another sitcom on lmfao.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 22:20

msge 78



""Putin has all the traits of a dictator, but he is different; he is , in essence, an oligarch. What he really wants is to rule like Stalin while living like Abramovich".



This makes sense to me. I was picking up something from Putin that led to me believe he was different from most dictators. I thought it was to do with him being a little more sophisticated in his thinking , but it looks like he just panders for all types of fame.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 22:24

msge 80



Lol

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 22:27

phew!



few of us would disagree that what is happening in russia is highly reprehensible



and top marks to everyone who has studied all the news broadcasts on the topic



er...



that's it!

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 22:38

msge 83



We all make some team Andre

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 22:51

Another interesting news on the subject:

An announcement has been made in Russia that Mikhail Prokhorov, Russia's third richest man (and billionaire playboy owner of the US New Jersey Nets basketball team), is standing for the presidency next year.

Which I thought was very suspicious.

Now the opposition is saying that it is a ploy by Putin to distract the protestors.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 23:00

clarrisa,



I don't want to slander the guy but one of the presidental "also rans"

was caught in a hookers scandal a year or so ago, I think it was him?

it beggars belief



one good thing about putin tho', said he may recognise north cyprus,

but it is possible he was not being entirely serious

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 23:03

to clarify, I think it may have been this geezer prokhorov...



and don't forget evelyn waugh's view of the outside world



"abroad is bloody"

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 23:10

Re: Msg 86,



I think there were 999 'hookers scandals' involving him - it is the badge of honour in Russia.



"...putin tho', said he may recognise north cyprus..."



Or even buy North Cyprus ( Christmas present?)

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
16/12/2011 23:26

...but not appropriate for somebody posing as a serious contender clarissa!



resigning from the top posts this is not always as easy as it seems,

when yeltsin handed over to VP for example a deal was signed giving yeltsin

immunity from prosecution, it is said he'd have stayed on otherwise



and when you talk about badges of honour, above, you are somewhat undermining

your representation of the heaving russian masses pining for freedom and honesty



don't imagine most russians wanted to see putin indicted over the second chechen

war either, all the russians I spoke with said he was "far too soft" with them

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
17/12/2011 02:16

Looks to have gone sour in Egypt



http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/12/2011121672542846485.html

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
17/12/2011 11:22

I think gone sour is something of a value judgement mark,

but yes broadly that is indeed the situation defined by outsiders

...although the moderate islamic party has made good progress

in their general election and I wonder if their supporters would

choose your phrase "gone sour"?



from the point of view of the "west", assuming this is christian,

liberal and open...it is instability as much as anything that is

the greatest menace to one and all



after all, coming back to the "situation" in russia, a principal

reason putin even now clings to genuine and widespread support

inside the country, is that only he is thought strong enough to keep

internal factions and foreign "enemies" within bounds



I leave it to others to study news reports and to simply regurgitate

those criticisms and revelations as they see fit

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
17/12/2011 11:45

msge 91



Yes you are right Andre, many in the Muslim brotherhood will be happy with the result. As moderates they are likely to be tolerant to those in their country who are tolerant. They also know that they need tourists. They are also likely to reach out to the West to seek advice on how to develop their infrastructure so that all bodes well. There only problem with the west is likely to be Israel and if we push secularism on them

Less promising, is the fact that the second largest Islamic party who gained the second largest number of votes are more radical. And from yesterdays news report it is not clear if the army is prepared to cede power, not when they have their tentacles firmly entrenched in Egypts public and private system.



In terms of values. Everybody on the planet has access to the same values. There are probably 125. They are expressed differently and higher values emerge at different rates. This may also seem like a value judgement but it is very well researched.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
17/12/2011 11:49

The big container for these values would be purpose, profit, people, planet.



The big shift at the moment in the West is from profit to people. You can hear it in lots of posts expressed by people like erolz, walkerscott and kibrissolar etc

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
17/12/2011 11:53

correction msge 92



...tolerant to those in their country who are liberal