Is North Cyprus Safe "Eurozone back on the brink as France has credit"

rick1


Joined: 20/04/2010
Posts: 44

Message Posted:
14/01/2012 14:44

Eurozone back on the brink as France has credit rating downgraded and France suggest that UK should be down graded as well.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9014579/Debt-crisis-Eurozone-back-on-the-brink-as-France-has-credit-rating-downgraded.html

tania


Joined: 09/12/2011
Posts: 116

Message Posted:
14/01/2012 17:55

It may have changed, but when I was there 2 weeks ago, they used the TL.

No euro, no eurozone etc.

The south however are officially in 'junk' territory

The UK are not in the euro either

Jonholmes


Joined: 08/11/2011
Posts: 184

Message Posted:
14/01/2012 17:58

Tania not quite true about the junk status, on the other thread ,I have listed all the ratings , Cyprus is the same as Portugal 2 "points" off the junk status ,still not good though.

Jonholmes


Joined: 08/11/2011
Posts: 184

Message Posted:
14/01/2012 18:01

Full list is on this thread:



http://www.cyprus44.com/forums/83624.asp



As listed in posts 2 and 3

tania


Joined: 09/12/2011
Posts: 116

Message Posted:
14/01/2012 18:58

Italy, Spain, Cyprus and Portugal were cut two notches, with the latter two given "junk" ratings. Germany kept its AAA rating.



Junk - simple!!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-1655846

Jonholmes


Joined: 08/11/2011
Posts: 184

Message Posted:
14/01/2012 19:16

My apologies I read it as 2 more down it would be junk, not 2 down into junk,for both countries, my bad oops

rowlo



Joined: 12/10/2008
Posts: 4796

Message Posted:
14/01/2012 21:55

its probably safer than the roc is ?

Swany



Joined: 01/12/2009
Posts: 255

Message Posted:
14/01/2012 22:44

I am very sure the TRNC government will not have any investments in Greek or Portugal debt or any EURO debt as they are indebted to Turkey. Yes there is some investment from the EU but as that is allocated I would imagine that it will still come. This may slow down or stop.



I don't think that any of the TRNC banks will be holding Greek or Portugal debt or any EURO debt for that matter. As long as Turkey rides the wave then the TRNC will be ok.



But I don’t think there is much fun ahead for some time.

WAZ-24-7



Joined: 18/10/2008
Posts: 695

Message Posted:
14/01/2012 23:26

TRNC is simply not in the European equation. Its economic position has always been weak and borrowings and subsides are in the main from Turkey. Turkey is also apart from the European Union though significantly reliant upon european trade. France now has the problem that it must pay more for its borrowings and this will create additional pressure upon its economy and its leaders who will be blamed for the fall in confidence.

TRNC does not have a credit rating..It is a true welfare state. How long can this continue?

There are some that relish in the welfare handouts and any change will be harmfull to their standard of living.

Some radical changes are required if the TRNC is to trully asspire to recognition, self sufficiency and independance.

Brinsley


Joined: 04/04/2009
Posts: 6858

Message Posted:
15/01/2012 00:20

When Greece eventually defaults and reverts back to the Drachma sell € and buy £ & $. Wait awhile, watching a rapid daily graph decline of the GDR (I recommend Reuters Currency Converter website) and when it bottoms out, buy in small affordable amounts either for holiday/visiting spending monies or for a quick speculative profit. If brave, buy 'short' on the first announcement of Greece leaving the €!



Richard

eager


Joined: 23/02/2007
Posts: 1272

Message Posted:
15/01/2012 01:06

Msg 10

If that happens millions of Greek people who have there money in the now said euros will lose25% of their savings as Greece devalues.... not to mention people that have bank loans or mortgages !

Jonholmes


Joined: 08/11/2011
Posts: 184

Message Posted:
15/01/2012 02:39

In theory if Turkey stooped the payments to Cyprus could they be self sufficient?

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
15/01/2012 13:42

title of thead: "Is North Cypus Safe"



safe from what?



well, obviously it is distanced from any collapse of the euro...

and more importantly the collapse of leading banks or freezing of exchange markets



however the extent to which trade and financial relations are involved between the

trnc/turkey and the rest of the world could be adversly affected, with the eurozone

states facing a major economic slump



although if we are talking abot southern members defaulting, this would set off a

series of huge devaluation there, propelling their economies upward at great speed

as folk overseas buy into the cheapness



could north cyprus ever be self-sufficient?

obviously not in defence, but most countries are dependent on the outside world,

north cyprus far more than most:

but could it withstand the hardship of turkey ending payments?

well in theory yes, but calls among, especially, unemployed youth would grow for

unification "at any price"

girne 29


Joined: 06/12/2007
Posts: 1488

Message Posted:
15/01/2012 14:12

if the Eurozone fails,it will be irrelevant if any country in europe is in it or out,the effects will be the same.What determines the effect is how much a countries banks has invested in a failed currency and how much a country relies on trade with a eurozone country.

Its laughable for anyone to suggest that the TRNC will be in a better position that France or Germany if Euro fails because it uses the ytl.Germany will still sell BMW'S, Siemens trains etc and TRNC will still sell nothing but dodgy property.The property market has dropped to nothing as it is and a European population tightening its belts will only decrease buyers even further.



The ytl is not doing well and the Turkish economy has big problems as well.The Euro failing will cause Turkey problems .Everyone will suffer.

Message 11, if NC was self sufficient it wouldnt need nearly all its cash from Turkey, would it!!!!!

NC produces,builders,estate agents,oranges, BMW dealers,and lawyers.Work it out.!!

Hector


Joined: 26/08/2008
Posts: 2352

Message Posted:
15/01/2012 19:25

I agree with the view that any defaults in the EU will have an adverse effect on other countries whether in or out of the eurozone including the UK and USA. It's looking likely that Greece will default in or by March when it's due to repay billions in loans which it can't repay as the latest talks with the EU for bailout funds have just collapsed. Greece hasn't complied with the fiscal tightening rules laid down for the loans.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9015265/Greece-gets-closer-to-brink-of-bankruptcy.html



There is also an article about the huge numbers of people claiming disability benefits in Greece. 25% in one town alone. Another town 10% of the population are blind!

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
15/01/2012 21:27

message 14:



one of the problems is that not only is this type of crisis new

but there are several possible outcomes if the eurozone does eventually break up



there is little justification for asserting non-euro states would be similarly stricken:

while a slump affects all, remember british banks at least should survive, and also...



for greece etc to return to a (devaluing) national currency it has been suggested the

overprinted euronotes could circulate but financial controls would probably freeze

cash movements directly involving those brits trying to sell up and leave



on the other hands sources inside the german finance ministry suggest greece will be

allowed to default yet to stay in, and the eurozone will still try to carry on as before



message 15: it is not really good enough to cut cut cut if your tax take is plummeting

at the same time, ie where will be the cash to pay off all those loans, old and new?

Hector


Joined: 26/08/2008
Posts: 2352

Message Posted:
15/01/2012 21:52

"message 15: it is not really good enough to cut cut cut if your tax take is plummeting



at the same time, ie where will be the cash to pay off all those loans, old and new?"



Problem is, few people in Greece actually pay their correct income tax. Like other Med EU countries, tax avoidance is a national sport. If they did perhaps they wouldn't be in such a mess. My friend in the south has been telling me that public employees retire on 95% of their salary, police officers get promoted to the next rank just before retirement and teachers get 105% of their wages as a pension.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
15/01/2012 22:13

yes hector,of course what you say is perfectly true

...and you can only wonder that the northern states

still claim that the peripherals

can deflate their way out of this indebtedness crisis

but do they really believe this in their heart of hearts?



one thing is for sure if the whole rotten ediface

comes crashing down it will be britain to get the blame

like france says about not sending spitfires in 1940

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
16/01/2012 21:08

another thing:



all this about retiring early and general featherbedding in the "bankrupt" e-states

well, after the obligatory tut-tutting on our part,

it is worth remembering they didn't just conjure up the money for it from nowhere

but it was the lenders who willingly provided it for them based on bogus accounts



the self-same overseas banks are now in some danger when/if the euro collapses

or at least when the euro is only available for D Fi Nl etc



this has eerie similarities to the 2008 credit crunch where banks suddenly realised

many of those profitable lending deals were based on very shaky foundations



and of course, just because a bond auction might have "hellenic republic of greece*

printed on the papers doesn't mean that sovereign is safe at any speed, as it were